05/21/05: TALK: KS/NE/IA

[Philip Flory]

Decided against instincts and left for Nebraska City around noon. Not much to say, arrived in Neb City around 4:00pm and quickly became extremely worried about the situation after looking over data for 30-45 min. Watched the convection on radar attempt to near Hebron... then quickly die. Decided around 5 that best shot was to hope the convection in KS would get it's act together and find the instability axis by late evening over NE KS... didn't happen. Enjoyed some Pizza Hut in Junction City and headed home.

bust... goodnight

 

[J Holder]

I was really expecting something to show up in my neighborhood tonight, so I pretty much stayed put.

While busts suck, put it into a little perspective: You spent an afternoon doing something you enjoy and sounds like folks got reaquainted and new friends made in Nebraska.

Also remember that too often the weather we're enjoying is too often creating destruction for others so a bust day for us is a day spared for someone else.

Everyone stay safe driving home tonight.

JH

 

[David Wolfson]

We spent the day watching the beautiful weather in Lincoln, Wahoo, and Beatrice, too. A day like this reminds you who's Boss, and it's not NOAA.

Met a few more of the folks I've only known through ST, so the day is far from a loss.

 

[Kiel Ortega]

I love how everyone really doesn't look at the weather and looks at the models. Further, when they bust it has nothing to do with the fact they didn't pay attention to real data. Anyways, I didn't go out because:
1) HUGE CAP!!! CTs alone were ridiculous...just because you could ALMOST reach CTs doesn't mean your LCLs will be good or the environment WILL support storms.
2) George Carlin was in Wichita...great show

Try to stick with data...soundings don't lie and I don't care what a model says.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

BTW -- as a side note -- check out the training storms popping in MO right now. Looks like a big flooding event. Already 5+ inches on the ground in some counties, and that line just keeps training and training...

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

I love how everyone really doesn't look at the weather and looks at the models. Further, when they bust it has nothing to do with the fact they didn't pay attention to real data. Anyways, I didn't go out because:
1) HUGE CAP!!! CTs alone were ridiculous...just because you could ALMOST reach CTs doesn't mean your LCLs will be good or the environment WILL support storms.
2) George Carlin was in Wichita...great show

Try to stick with data...soundings don't lie and I don't care what a model says.

While doubtless nobody here would argue with the fact that the chasers who went out today, including the entire ROTATE fleet and the National Geographic documentary crew, are all meteorlogical amateurs when compared to the mighty awesomeness that is your l33t chasing skills, it's bad form to rub it in.

I mean, it was hard enough to come home after seeing no storms. Now I have to cry myself to sleep knowing I'll never be as good a forecaster as Kiel Ortega. Thanks, Kiel. One more dream shattered.

 

[Kiel Ortega]

I love how everyone really doesn't look at the weather and looks at the models. Further, when they bust it has nothing to do with the fact they didn't pay attention to real data. Anyways, I didn't go out because:
1) HUGE CAP!!! CTs alone were ridiculous...just because you could ALMOST reach CTs doesn't mean your LCLs will be good or the environment WILL support storms.
2) George Carlin was in Wichita...great show

Try to stick with data...soundings don't lie and I don't care what a model says.

While doubtless nobody here would argue with the fact that the chasers who went out today, including the entire ROTATE fleet and the National Geographic documentary crew, are all meteorlogical amateurs when compared to the mighty awesomeness that is your l33t chasing skills, it's bad form to rub it in.

I mean, it was hard enough to come home after seeing no storms. Now I have to cry myself to sleep knowing I'll never be as good a forecaster as Kiel Ortega. Thanks, Kiel. One more dream shattered.

I wasn't intending to rub anything in...and I could care less who was out today. I was just pointing out the fact that when people bust, it's never because of their bad forecasting...it's always a BEAUTIFUL set up gone wrong...and when a crappy situation works out, it's because someone got lucky, or as they put it, made a GREAT forecast. Further, I am most disturbed by how much emphasis is put on models...THEY ARE MODELS...the 12Z sounding from OAX should have been enough today to say NO to chasing.

I can understand being really bored and chasing for the hell of it...but at least admit you were bored, chasing a crappy set up and get over it.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I looked at the 18z OAX / Omaha sounding, and quickly realized that that I didn't want to be much into nebraska. For the thermonuclear cap in place at 18z, there needed to be a LOT of mixing to remove that cap, and I really didn't think that, under the cirrus deck, that was going to happen that far into NE. So, we made it as far north of Hebron before turning back south into KS, where mixing was much stronger, which allowed for much higher temps, though adversely affecting the dewpoints and LCLs.

 

[Dick McGowan]

Pretty much saw what everyone else did. Tired, not wanting to see some particular posts from some people that are "smarter" than I. It was really cool to meet people from ALL over the country. Nice meeting ryan m., fplowman, ben p. and his lady, fabian, who have i left out, TONS of people. CAPOLA BUSTOLA YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYY



ROTFL LMAO

The way I look at it, as others would agree, is, We got to meet each other and hang out, and bs about every topic you can think of. It was cool meeting all the people you see post on here. I see it as a victorious day, even without the weather. AS FOR ME, I'm GLAD I went out today. So glad. Real glad. BUSTOLA or not. Wish i would have ventured out to see the DOW and NG team, and other chasers that were across the river at the Best western. Momma said there'd be days like this...........

 

[Jeff Lawson]

I can understand being really bored and chasing for the hell of it...but at least admit you were bored, chasing a crappy set up and get over it.

The only "crappy" thing about the set-up was the cap. And, of course, when it comes to the cap, "it's boom or bust." The way this season has gone, I wouldn't dare criticize any chaser for taking a chance on a strong cap - especially if they're on vacation. If, in your divine wisdom, you knew today would be a cap bust based solely on a 12Z sounding, that's all fine and dandy. But, don't look down your nose at your fellow chasers as if they drove to Nevada in the middle of August, expecting to see a blizzard.

 

[Kiel Ortega]

I can understand being really bored and chasing for the hell of it...but at least admit you were bored, chasing a crappy set up and get over it.

The only "crappy" thing about the set-up was the cap. And, of course, when it comes to the cap, "it's boom or bust." The way this season has gone, I wouldn't dare criticize any chaser for taking a chance on a strong cap - especially if they're on vacation. If, in your divine wisdom, you knew today would be a cap bust based solely on a 12Z sounding, that's all fine and dandy. But, don't look down your nose at your fellow chasers as if they drove to Nevada in the middle of August, expecting to see a blizzard.

Considering I never put anyone down...no more than anyone else has as I have seen on other posts, I can't believe this response. The ONLY crappy thing was the cap...let's ignore the 25F dewpoint depression and the fact that every chase this season people have said "If only this one KEY ingredient was there." I don't look down at anyone...but don't sit there and try to make a crappy situation look better than it was just because you or someone else was there. If you bust you bust...doesn't mean anything other than we can't really predict the weather...let alone a thunderstorm.

 

[Jeff Lawson]

Considering I never put anyone down...no more than anyone else has as I have seen on other posts, I can't believe this response. The ONLY crappy thing was the cap...let's ignore the 25F dewpoint depression and the fact that every chase this season people have said "If only this one KEY ingredient was there."

Well, I guess it's time we cancel the season. Everyone go home. We're only allowed to chase on days when EVERY ingredient for severe weather is in place and in perfect balance. No complaining.

I don't know about you, but I've seen some good storms on days with high dewpoint depressions. No tornadoes, of course, but I'm not a tornado chaser. I'm a storm chaser.

I don't look down at anyone...but don't sit there and try to make a crappy situation look better than it was just because you or someone else was there. If you bust you bust...doesn't mean anything other than we can't really predict the weather...let alone a thunderstorm.

Well, I didn't go out today (see, I noticed the cap as well), so I have little reason to be personally offended by your display of pompous certainty. Of course, if your response to today's bust is, "Oh well...guess we can't predict the weather," perhaps you're in the wrong business, Kiel.

Anyway, I find it a bit silly that you're criticizing everyone else for their overeliance on model data, yet, the cornerstone of your forecast today was a single 12Z sounding. Because, you know, it's not like the thermodynamic profile of the atmosphere can change over the course of the day.

Oh well. First chance you get, be sure to lecture your neighbors at the SPC about that red box they issued today in a fit of boredom. I'm sure they'll appreciate your insight.

 

[Dick McGowan]

Red box? What red box? Where?

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Okay gents, namely Ortega and Lawson, lets either take this discussion to PM or email, since it's taking on an increasingly personal tone and is digressing from this particular chase day (into the 'philosophy of chasing' regime). Thanks!

 

[Shane Adams]

I love how everyone really doesn't look at the weather and looks at the models. Further, when they bust it has nothing to do with the fact they didn't pay attention to real data.
Try to stick with data...soundings don't lie and I don't care what a model says.

Blows my mind how people who didn't even get off their ass come in here and blast those of us who had the balls to test our forecasts. Don't ever tell me how my day went when you weren't there sharing it with me. I watched data all damned day until 8pm. Sometimes you have to put the textbook down and have a little faith. It doesn't always work, but I'd rather take that 6-hour drive and have a chance...something you never had today.

EDIT: (after reading further Ortega wisdom)

I busted today because the cap held, period. My forecast wasn't bad, unless you want to blast the SPC right along with me and the dozens of others who were already parked inside the t-box when it came out. We were where we should've been had the cap been broken. I'm not a scholar, I don't cling desperately to books and reason and standards. I take chances, I trust in chaos, and I believe things can happen when they shouldn't.

LOL, you act as if nobody expected a cap issue today. What you're mistakenly calling a bad forecast was simply faith.