05/21/05: TALK: KS/NE/IA

[JHadorn]

I got bored and ran down to see the chaser convention at the Holiday Inn. Saw one chaser vehicle headed south on 77 while I was going. Olive green looking SUV with an anenometer and some flashing yellows. Talked to David Wolfson and his crew for a moment. Saw a LOT of antenea and yellow lights.

Crap-o-la day. I hope those of you that came to Beatrice at least enjoyed your time here. I suggest you hit the new Mexican restaurant while you're here. It's across the street from the mall. Word has it that the food there is good.

 

[nickgrillo]

I'm about as bored as Shane is, well, because I'm sitting about 7 feet across from him... :lol:

It looks like the day is gonna be junk. I really don't have much hope at all for it... The SPC issued an MD about a half hour ago about the red box, and that they will continue to maintain it for a couple more hours (probably they'll let it expire). They continue to mention that the threat for supercells continue, which I agree... But I am seeing NO signs of development. It's pretty much over...

 

[Alex Lamers]

Some storms are making an attempt now anywhere along a line from Salina to 50 miles southwest of Salina. Haven't seen anything real impressive although VIL data now indicates a core of 52.5 kg/m2 about 10 miles south of Ellsworth.

Like SPC said in their MD, I am amazed that all of the short term models showed (and still do show) initiation and nothing has happened. Waiting on 00z RUC and RAOBs to see what the scoop is. In the meantime, CSI NY is coming on. It should pass the time nicely while I wait and see.

EDIT: it may be reaching but there are discrete cloud fields (cu) forming now in NE NE and NW IA on 0045Z vissat data.

...Alex Lamers...

 

[Alex Lamers]

OK here we go. Rice County KS cell is rapidly exploding. Overshooting top evident on visible satellite imagery from about 15 minutes ago. Meanwhile, KICT radar shows VIL cores +60 kg/m2 with POSH now up to 80% and mx hail size to 2 inches. Some stronger outflow to rear of storm. Wouldn't be surprised to see a warning momentarily. Some weak mid-level cyclonic convergence also noted.

...Alex Lamers...

 

[mikegeukes]

Rice County is now under Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Mike

 

[Jeff Miller]

As beautiful as that looks, that is WAY out of reach of all the chasers that drove from Oklahoma to Nebraska...

...such are the perils of storm chasing.

Convection in SD nearly dissipated.

 

[Shane Adams]

Ok, I am throwing up the white flag. Nebraska, you win again. Be home in about 7 hours sweetie...

 

[JHadorn]

Well, the cap will erode. It'll just take about six hours to do so. Are you sure you don't want to stick around, Shane?

 

[Alex Lamers]

Rice County cell already begining to collapse on itself. Tops down 2000 feet in the past 2 scans.

Looks like the cap will be stubborn to the bitter end.

The RUC does develop stuff in NE KS and NW MO between 02/03Z (the 00Z RUC that is) which doesn't make sense because its already developing. Additionally, it has no precip in Central Kansas. The short term models have been abysmal.

EDIT: Just noticed that Tornado Watch has been CANCELLED. 10 bucks says that stuff starts up now. :roll:

...Alex Lamers...

 

[mikegeukes]

TORNADO WATCH 311 HAS BEEN CANCELED

Mike

 

[nickgrillo]

LOL, Just read your post to Shane and he said, "Yeah, if your buyin'" LOL! :lol:

Shane just left the Best Western and is now headed back for Norman. Jo, he's coming back... Well, now I just have to wait for Kurt to leave (he said sunset) and we'll be headed back for home. I had a great time on the Plains for the past three weeks, with plenty of beautiful storms and tornadoes. Hopefully I'll be back in a couple monthes for individual chases, weather permitted...

My sympathies to all else who went out today.

See ya soon, Great Plains...

..Nick..

 

[JHadorn]

If you guys didn't have such an incredibly long drive home I'd totally invite you guys out for brews, but I know what a bastard it is having a 6+ hour drive home.

At least you nailed a tube on your vacation. You've got that goin' for ya.

 

[Dan Christianson]

Wow nice day in NE , BUSTS BUSTS BUSTS AND MORE... who couldnt be luckier then that STUPID CAP right now"!@
:roll:

 

[Jeff Lawson]

I can actually see towers off to my NW from here in Bellevue. They're nicely backlit by the setting sun. Whether they're leftovers or new development, I can't say.

Oh well. It's a lovely evening, at least. Nice, cool breeze.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Rice County, KS remains svr warned. The cell kinda died out for a couple scans, but is fairly intense still.