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Glen Romine
EF5
Suspect that the shear number of storms to choose from right now will wreak havoc on chasers trying to get to the "right" storm. Notably the cold front has continued to press south, rather agressively to the east - and despite strengtheneing southerly flow is showing no signs of stopping anytime soon. This has led to the surface boundary being oriented nearly perpindicular to cell motions - such that even storms developing on the outflow boundary to the south are becoming elevated north of the front before they have a chance to mature. My preference would be for convection with a longer duration in the sector between the outflow and cold front. Since my morning target was Alva - which is seeing some nicwe storms right now in that area - I'd stick with those until they all cross to the north of the cold front - but would be trying to keep tabs on the storm near Oberlin - which has the potential to be one of today's best based on it's current position/environment. Those nowcasting for folks in the field should keep an eye on that cell imo.
Glen
From the Adams County Ne TOR warning:
...CONDITIONS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR THE SPIN UP OF TORNADOES IN THE COUNTY.
Never heard this text used before. Are they specifically talking about gustnadoes?Glen Romine
EF5
Unfortunately appears that cells forming south of the cold front just aren't making it right now, and quickly move north of the front, where they spin like crazy but may not have much of a tornado threat there despite the barrage of tornado warnings. Further west, storms just crossing into nw KS are still in fairly dry conditions - but cells in southern Yuma and nothern Kit Carson may manage to stay south of the cold front with a little more rightward movement, and by the time they reach northern Rawlins (KS) to Hitchcock (NE) counties will have mid 60 dewpoints available instead of current values from 50-55F. That might just get 'er done.
Currently appears that front sitting along US 34 - so new target is Trenton NE. Time to move west!
GlenNic Wilson
EF2
Myself, Aaron Kennedy, Kenny Tapp and others from OU are waiting in Beloit, KS in Mitchell, Co. waiting for the outflow bdry. from the north to propage sw to our area....MD just out from SPC so i like our spot considering we got here too late to grab the NE show. Time to wait and see!Nic Wilson
EF2
DeleteMickey Ptak
EF5
I am sitting in Liberal KS with me, myself, and I watching the towers to my west hopefully they will strengthn real soon. My winds here are SE at +/- 20 to 25. By the way these towers are looking they are really getting into some great shear.
Mick
Dick McGowan
EF5
Nice hook in extreme nw cheyenne county in nw ks. Gr 3 showing TVS within..... new fires to south along dryline....brody_clifton
EF1
IMO the cells now firing along the dryline will be the main show, if only for the sole reason they will be south of the outflow boundary for a longer duration allowing them to better organize near surfaced based low level rotation/wall cloud features. Also, the higher dewpoint environment they will move through should allow LCLs to lower as well in the next couple hours for the KS dryline supercells. As they near and immediately cross the boundary to the north should be tornado prime time as 0-1km helicity will become maximized. Right now this looks to be between 7:00pm - 9:00pm central time, after that will have to use lighting to see them. Just a hunch, good luck to everyone out there chasing.
Dick McGowan
EF5
i totally agree, cell in kearney co. ks, (southwest kansas) is rapidly firing. Derek shaffer along with others held off storms to the north to play dryline, and are headed straight west (out of dighton)to intercept (hopefully) near leoti. Let's hope these hold strong.
Ryan McGinnis
EF5
Makes me sad -- all the fun stuff up north of the warm front, and here I sit in Colby, KS, watching the dryline do... nothin'!
I'm cursed, I tell ya.
brody_clifton
EF1
Colby may be a good spot to be atm. Supercell now developing WSW of Scott City moving NNE towards Colby eta 1hr 30 min.
Ryan McGinnis
EF5
Yeah -- I see that too, now. By time it's here it'll be dark, though -- might have to drive south a bit to get a better look. Maybe this is a sign the dryline is finally popping out here...
Dick McGowan
EF5
storm was spitting some small hail...............let's see...... hail was 3 miles south of leoti........still a good 1 and a half hours of daylight......
Ryan McGinnis
EF5
It may just fall apart as it rides north; several other storms have tried to form along the dryline and have died this way. Definately not the convection-fest I (and the SPC) was hoping for! :?Similar threads
