05/11/05 Talk: Central/Southern Plains

[Tim Stoecklein]

My thoughts exactly Mike, you have to keep Concordia on the list though. That place is paydirt on most days

I'm thinking a bit further west of Concordia even. EDIT: You were ahead of me. I didn't realize Belleville WAS that far west, lol. Still trying to figure out all this NE KS stuff coming from the west side of the state.........

Tim

 

[Todd Beal]

Leaving York, NE here in a hour or two. Our group is heading to Hays to set up and then re-evaluate from there.

Everyone and their brother sees the setup for today, so no need to rehash it.

Happy Chasing Everyone! Be Safe and Good Luck!!

 

[nickgrillo]

We're still in York as well, and we should be leaving for NW/NC Kansas in less than a hour. I'm thinking WEST of Hays will be a better shot...

 

[Glen Romine]

Agree with the lot - today is a pretty easy day to select a target. Concerns are similar to yesterday - strong mid-level cap, limited upper level activity to help break, but appears the cap strength isn't as strong as yesterday, and convergence along boundaries looks much stronger than yesterday - so convective initiation is much less of an issue - at least for storms just noth of the boundary. Upper level flow today is much more meridional though than yesterday - and that plays a vital role in storms being able to remain surface based as the tendency will be for storms to slide too far north of the boundary. Not sure how many will try the dryline today - but there could be some good opportunities there today as well I think - perhaps even better. Moisture depth at AMA this morning was very impressive (unlike at DDC). Currently the "hot spot" is at Hill City, KS, but it will pobably drift around some this morning until cyclogenesis gets ramped up.

[edit]Guess I could add that my target as of now would be Alma, NE. Good luck to those out in the field today.[/edit]

Glen

 

[JHadorn]

I'm not digging what the RUC is saying about moisture. If what it says is true we'll see the atmosphere start to dry out around 5:00 PM CDT. Helicity values are just crazy, though. Most of Nebraska is going to be seeing helicity at ~500 m2/s2. LI is going to be crazy-go-nuts along the boundary.

So as of now my target will consist of Jefferson/Gage/Marshall/Washington Counties. I feel like a kid in the friggin' candy store.

 

[Mike Umscheid]

For those chasing in Western Kansas today, you may be interested in our locally run "short fuse composite" at the DDC NWS. It is run hourly and updates on the web at :35 after. For those who don't know of the short fuse composite, it was originally run on AFOS here at DDC a few years ago... it is two charts: one with moisture convergence, theta advection, theta-e, and the 2nd chart is CAPE and CIN. The analysis uses some western KS mesonet data from KDOT and a few other ground water district stations. Good luck out there today!

The URL is http://weather.gov/ddc/short.html

Mike U

 

[Glen Romine]

SPC quick on the draw with a tornado box now issued for the eastern section of the outflow boundary region. Guess they decided to skip over an MCD. Convection in ne KS to nw MO has been steadily intensifying - but remains fairly disorganized, as expected given the current shear values in that area of 30-35 knots. Appears this will improve with time.

Link to the watch box text: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/0505111651.wwus20.html

 

[Mike Peregrine]

This watch box is crazy - I did not expect one this early ... but these cells are training, and the one just west of STJ looks almost like a supercell with a hook ... good grief ... I guess I'm going to have to go take a look at it ... won't revise my target for later in the day, though ... I need to get organized real quick.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Crazy instability here ... this just rolled over my house five minutes ago:





Sorry for the noise, but don't have time to edit. Quite a huge, boiling gust front ... cool to watch. Lights are flickering here. Hope all this early convection doesn't mess up the big stuff this afternoon - - -

 

[Verne Carlson]

Our group is in Colby, KS now checking data and watching the boundary drift north from our location. Looks like a big day today!

 

[Edward Ballou]

Just talked to a guy I'm doing an interview with in KC on Friday. He had to go because of a tornado in the area. Sounds like things are really heating up. Was rather suprised when I checked the radar for KC. Good luck all in KC. Be safe!

EDIT:

Just saw this Local Storm Report...
0141 PM HAIL BRUNSWICK 39.42N 93.13W 05/11/2005 4.25 INCH CHARITON MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

 

[Matthew Havin]

Sitting here in Russell, KS and planning to head out by 2:15. Boundary looks good north of Hill City to Osborne, KS into SC NE. 18Z Sig Torn parameter in the area is now 2+, with CAPE in NC KS at 3000+. Edge of 18Z 0-1km helicity of 150+ is riding the KS-NE border. Deep moisture convergence of 4+ shows up on 18Z SPC Mesoanalysis in Harlan Co. NE. Supercell composite 16+.

In other news, Tornado Warning for Leavenworth Co, KS/Platte Co., MO.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Sitting in Hebron NE library thinking about maybe drifting west of here. I don't want to be near the eastern side of that cold front you can see diving south....not good for there. It looks quite similar to the Grand Island area yesterday on satellite with what looks like some of the best convergence in the Alma area.

 

[Tony Laubach]

A small group of us are chillin' at the Kansas Oasis enjoying our suntans and digesting our fried chicken! We're hopeful for today and think we're in good position... looks like we're going to hang here for a while.

[Broken External Image]:http://www.tornadoeskick.com/images/current.jpg

 

[Scott Udell]

The storm passing through Leavenworth county, KS, just went tornado-warned for Levenworth county in KS and for Platte county across the river in Missouri. I'm up on Ft. Leavenworth, and we just had heavy rain and pea-sized hail (with a few larger pieces tossed in) pass over our building (overlooking the MO river), followed by just a bit of lightning. My window looks west, and I'm seeing signs of what this beginner takes to be large-scale rotation (clouds immediately overhead are moving north at a good clip, while a scud cloud I could see just a bit west of here was moving south even more quickly). FWIW, the sky is lightening in the west.