05/11/05 Talk: Central/Southern Plains

[Mike Hollingshead]

Oh wow what a change for Wednesday! Thought I should get this open for TALK. Wow wow wow do I like sw NE, nw KS tomorrow. See everyone(and their dog) at the triple point!

Edit: If the 12z NAM is on to anything.

 

[Ben Prusia]

You beat me to it Mike! I was just about to open a TALK thread for this after I posted my updated FCST.

I am planning to leave Overland Park around 8 in the morning tomorrow to head west to a proposed target area of roughly Oakley/Colby. Best upper level support/instability/moisture/helicity will exist near the triple point and into southwestern Nebraska, and that is where I want to be!

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I just got a chance to look at the 12Z run. If the NAM verifies I would expect a tornadic supercell in NW Kansas. I have a final at 8 tomorrow morning. I should still be able to make it to my target area in time, but I am going to have be on my horse as soon as I finish that test. If the SPC is buying into the 12Z they should go with moderate when they update.

 

[Mike Umscheid]

Well, I am almost convinced there will be a few significant tornadoes tomorrow in western/central Nebraska....centered along the I-80 corridor. Geographically, the setup reminds me somewhat of May 22, 2004, where a surface low developed in far NW kansas with an east-west oriented baroclinic zone. Only this time, it looks a bit farther west. 850mb winds progged to be southeast at 45kts from the Eta. This is *very significant* and you only get this with vigorous lower tropospheric development and crazy ageostrophic responses with the atmos so out of geostrophic balance..

Good luck to all head out, it could be a dangerous day, and with a ton of chasers out, it is imperitive to stress: safety first. I'm looking forward to seeing all the great video and photographs of what looks like one of the best days of 2005, more than likely.

Mike U

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Originally posted by Mike Umscheid
Geographically, the setup reminds me somewhat of May 22, 2004, where a surface low developed in far NW kansas with an east-west oriented baroclinic zone.

Wow ... if it's even remotely similar, I'm there. This thread is suddenly getting my hopes up for tomorrow big time. Will have to take a look at the scenario when we get back tonight. Today is looking like just a setup for tomorrow now -

 

[David Schuttler]

Originally posted by Mike Peregrine+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Mike Peregrine)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-Mike Umscheid

Geographically, the setup reminds me somewhat of May 22, 2004, where a surface low developed in far NW kansas with an east-west oriented baroclinic zone.

Wow ... if it's even remotely similar, I'm there. This thread is suddenly getting my hopes up for tomorrow big time. Will have to take a look at the scenario when we get back tonight. Today is looking like just a setup for tomorrow now -[/b]

This is only supposed to happen on Saturday's , give us unlucky ones a chance drive up on a day off.... Think you all can keep it a little quieter and less excitable on here today and tomorrow? :wink:

Looking forward to seeing the results of what I will miss from the rest of you.... Keep safe and non-distracted

 

[Chris C Sanner]

After a brief convo with my chase partner (Chris Snider) our plan, if things still look like they're WC KS for the Triple Point or S/SE of there, is to set up around Dodge City, KS tommorow. I'm skipping a Medieval Times trip for this, so I'm gonna have to be banking on some great supercells to be able to go tommorow with a right mind :lol:

 

[Verne Carlson]

The Colorado gang is hanging out in Salina, KS this morning after an amazing chase in Grand ISland, NE yesterday. Very excited at the prospects today along the KS/NE border. Good luck to everyone out there!

 

[Ben Prusia]

I am going to leave in a little bit for a target area of anywhere between Salina-Russell-Belleville-Smith Center. Triple point looks good, but warm front with outflow boundaries from last night looks a lot better.

 

[Ben Prusia]

You can really see that stationary front sag a little southward on the Pleasant Hill/Kansas City Radar. Right now it is between Kansas City and Saint Joseph and is already touching off a few severe thunderstorms in NW Missouri this morning. The front may make it as far as I-70 today

 

[nickgrillo]

Had an excellent day yesterday with that monster Central NE supercell/funnels, and now it looks to be even better looking today...

It looks like we're heading to SC NE into NC KS...

 

[Tyler Allison]

Originally posted by nickgrillo
Had an excellent day yesterday with that monster Central NE supercell/funnels, and now it looks to be even better looking today...

It looks like we're heading to SC NE into NC KS...

update your chase blog already! :lol:

 

[Justin Walker]

I will be heading out to nw KS to triple pt within the hour. My chase partner backed out on me this morning. I'm looking for someone to team up with me, split the costs. Just pm me.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I'll probably be heading to the border south of Holdrege NE and then likely drift west. The way the clouds look it could be a similar thing as yesterday with better shear and better moisture.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

After yesterday I feel confident in the ability of the WF to produce again today. With reinforcement from residual outflow boundaries I don't think there should be much trouble finding craziness out there today. I will likely target the WF in the Marysville to Belleville area ... my favorite stompin grounds in Kansas. Bring it ... totally ready for a repeat performance!