05/11/05 Talk: Central/Southern Plains

Mike Hollingshead

Oh wow what a change for Wednesday! Thought I should get this open for TALK. Wow wow wow do I like sw NE, nw KS tomorrow. See everyone(and their dog) at the triple point!

Edit: If the 12z NAM is on to anything.
 
You beat me to it Mike! I was just about to open a TALK thread for this after I posted my updated FCST.

I am planning to leave Overland Park around 8 in the morning tomorrow to head west to a proposed target area of roughly Oakley/Colby. Best upper level support/instability/moisture/helicity will exist near the triple point and into southwestern Nebraska, and that is where I want to be!
 
I just got a chance to look at the 12Z run. If the NAM verifies I would expect a tornadic supercell in NW Kansas. I have a final at 8 tomorrow morning. I should still be able to make it to my target area in time, but I am going to have be on my horse as soon as I finish that test. If the SPC is buying into the 12Z they should go with moderate when they update.
 
Well, I am almost convinced there will be a few significant tornadoes tomorrow in western/central Nebraska....centered along the I-80 corridor. Geographically, the setup reminds me somewhat of May 22, 2004, where a surface low developed in far NW kansas with an east-west oriented baroclinic zone. Only this time, it looks a bit farther west. 850mb winds progged to be southeast at 45kts from the Eta. This is *very significant* and you only get this with vigorous lower tropospheric development and crazy ageostrophic responses with the atmos so out of geostrophic balance..

Good luck to all head out, it could be a dangerous day, and with a ton of chasers out, it is imperitive to stress: safety first. I'm looking forward to seeing all the great video and photographs of what looks like one of the best days of 2005, more than likely.

Mike U
 
Originally posted by Mike Umscheid
Geographically, the setup reminds me somewhat of May 22, 2004, where a surface low developed in far NW kansas with an east-west oriented baroclinic zone.


Wow ... if it's even remotely similar, I'm there. This thread is suddenly getting my hopes up for tomorrow big time. Will have to take a look at the scenario when we get back tonight. Today is looking like just a setup for tomorrow now -
 
Originally posted by Mike Peregrine+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Mike Peregrine)</div>
<!--QuoteBegin-Mike Umscheid
Geographically, the setup reminds me somewhat of May 22, 2004, where a surface low developed in far NW kansas with an east-west oriented baroclinic zone.


Wow ... if it's even remotely similar, I'm there. This thread is suddenly getting my hopes up for tomorrow big time. Will have to take a look at the scenario when we get back tonight. Today is looking like just a setup for tomorrow now -[/b]

This is only supposed to happen on Saturday's , give us unlucky ones a chance drive up on a day off.... Think you all can keep it a little quieter and less excitable on here today and tomorrow? :wink:

Looking forward to seeing the results of what I will miss from the rest of you.... Keep safe and non-distracted
 
After a brief convo with my chase partner (Chris Snider) our plan, if things still look like they're WC KS for the Triple Point or S/SE of there, is to set up around Dodge City, KS tommorow. I'm skipping a Medieval Times trip for this, so I'm gonna have to be banking on some great supercells to be able to go tommorow with a right mind :lol:
 
The Colorado gang is hanging out in Salina, KS this morning after an amazing chase in Grand ISland, NE yesterday. Very excited at the prospects today along the KS/NE border. Good luck to everyone out there! :D
 
I am going to leave in a little bit for a target area of anywhere between Salina-Russell-Belleville-Smith Center. Triple point looks good, but warm front with outflow boundaries from last night looks a lot better.
 
You can really see that stationary front sag a little southward on the Pleasant Hill/Kansas City Radar. Right now it is between Kansas City and Saint Joseph and is already touching off a few severe thunderstorms in NW Missouri this morning. The front may make it as far as I-70 today
 
Had an excellent day yesterday with that monster Central NE supercell/funnels, and now it looks to be even better looking today...

It looks like we're heading to SC NE into NC KS...
 
Originally posted by nickgrillo
Had an excellent day yesterday with that monster Central NE supercell/funnels, and now it looks to be even better looking today...

It looks like we're heading to SC NE into NC KS...

update your chase blog already! :lol:
 
I will be heading out to nw KS to triple pt within the hour. My chase partner backed out on me this morning. I'm looking for someone to team up with me, split the costs. Just pm me.
 
I'll probably be heading to the border south of Holdrege NE and then likely drift west. The way the clouds look it could be a similar thing as yesterday with better shear and better moisture.
 
After yesterday I feel confident in the ability of the WF to produce again today. With reinforcement from residual outflow boundaries I don't think there should be much trouble finding craziness out there today. I will likely target the WF in the Marysville to Belleville area ... my favorite stompin grounds in Kansas. Bring it ... totally ready for a repeat performance!
 
My thoughts exactly Mike, you have to keep Concordia on the list though. That place is paydirt on most days :D

I'm thinking a bit further west of Concordia even. EDIT: You were ahead of me. I didn't realize Belleville WAS that far west, lol. Still trying to figure out all this NE KS stuff coming from the west side of the state.........

Tim
 
Leaving York, NE here in a hour or two. Our group is heading to Hays to set up and then re-evaluate from there.

Everyone and their brother sees the setup for today, so no need to rehash it.

Happy Chasing Everyone! Be Safe and Good Luck!!
 
We're still in York as well, and we should be leaving for NW/NC Kansas in less than a hour. I'm thinking WEST of Hays will be a better shot...
 
Agree with the lot - today is a pretty easy day to select a target. Concerns are similar to yesterday - strong mid-level cap, limited upper level activity to help break, but appears the cap strength isn't as strong as yesterday, and convergence along boundaries looks much stronger than yesterday - so convective initiation is much less of an issue - at least for storms just noth of the boundary. Upper level flow today is much more meridional though than yesterday - and that plays a vital role in storms being able to remain surface based as the tendency will be for storms to slide too far north of the boundary. Not sure how many will try the dryline today - but there could be some good opportunities there today as well I think - perhaps even better. Moisture depth at AMA this morning was very impressive (unlike at DDC). Currently the "hot spot" is at Hill City, KS, but it will pobably drift around some this morning until cyclogenesis gets ramped up.

[edit]Guess I could add that my target as of now would be Alma, NE. Good luck to those out in the field today.[/edit]

Glen
 
I'm not digging what the RUC is saying about moisture. If what it says is true we'll see the atmosphere start to dry out around 5:00 PM CDT. Helicity values are just crazy, though. Most of Nebraska is going to be seeing helicity at ~500 m2/s2. LI is going to be crazy-go-nuts along the boundary.

So as of now my target will consist of Jefferson/Gage/Marshall/Washington Counties. I feel like a kid in the friggin' candy store.
 
For those chasing in Western Kansas today, you may be interested in our locally run "short fuse composite" at the DDC NWS. It is run hourly and updates on the web at :35 after. For those who don't know of the short fuse composite, it was originally run on AFOS here at DDC a few years ago... it is two charts: one with moisture convergence, theta advection, theta-e, and the 2nd chart is CAPE and CIN. The analysis uses some western KS mesonet data from KDOT and a few other ground water district stations. Good luck out there today!

The URL is http://weather.gov/ddc/short.html

Mike U
 
SPC quick on the draw with a tornado box now issued for the eastern section of the outflow boundary region. Guess they decided to skip over an MCD. Convection in ne KS to nw MO has been steadily intensifying - but remains fairly disorganized, as expected given the current shear values in that area of 30-35 knots. Appears this will improve with time.

Link to the watch box text: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/0505111651.wwus20.html
 
This watch box is crazy - I did not expect one this early ... but these cells are training, and the one just west of STJ looks almost like a supercell with a hook ... good grief ... I guess I'm going to have to go take a look at it ... won't revise my target for later in the day, though ... I need to get organized real quick.
 
Crazy instability here ... this just rolled over my house five minutes ago:

12b129b2e2daf1cf1c6dd5ce9ad18831.jpg

d4dcbb9ae500d92f1b3fca706fe608c1.jpg

Sorry for the noise, but don't have time to edit. Quite a huge, boiling gust front ... cool to watch. Lights are flickering here. Hope all this early convection doesn't mess up the big stuff this afternoon - - -
 
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