05/10/05: TALK: NE/IA/IL

[Chris Allington]

Calling in sick... 8) so i can chase later today... still have a meeting at 6 but if they call up activation I will cancel that too... SPC issued at PSWO today for NE and IA....interesting they mention the uncertainty of storms initiating south of the front but yet include that area in the hatched area...
Good luck to all...

EDIT: Surface winds backing nicely in Eastern NE and Western IA... dews reaching the 60 mark on the NE/KS border moving N-ward...

 

[Glen Romine]

Band of weak mid-level ascent sweeping northward across CO (evident in water vapor imagery and vis sat as thin cirrus patch), and should cross over the somewhat moist northeasterlies in ne CO next few hours. Perhaps signs of developing convection there now already. Could see northeastward development from there toward LBF. Noteworthy is the fairly rapid breakdown in the stratus deck along the southern edge, now exposing the warm front. Waves in clouds along with RUC estimates of temperatures suggest the cap strength is still formidable, and may lead to a break in convection on the west and east side of the stronger cap. Strongest surface convergence has held around the GRI vicinity lately, which is supposedly near the northeast edge of the strongest cap. Animation of the Hastings radar shows the front still drifting northward. Hopefully the 18Z sounding from OMA and LBF will be available soon which should shed some light on how much heating will be needed.

Glen

 

[Glen Romine]

Originally posted by Glen Romine
Hopefully the 18Z sounding from OMA and LBF will be available soon which should shed some light on how much heating will be needed.

Glen

Soundings are in - and the cap is indeed brutal. 700 mb temp at LBF = 10C, 9.5C at OAX. OAX convective temp of 97 can be toned down some by adjusting for best moisture in the area, but probably need temps approaching low 90's combined with convergent flow to break the cap. This still appears at least possible.

Glen

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Glen Romine+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Glen Romine)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-Glen Romine

Hopefully the 18Z sounding from OMA and LBF will be available soon which should shed some light on how much heating will be needed.

Glen

Soundings are in - and the cap is indeed brutal. 700 mb temp at LBF = 10C, 9.5C at OAX. OAX convective temp of 97 can be toned down some by adjusting for best moisture in the area, but probably need temps approaching low 90's combined with convergent flow to break the cap. This still appears at least possible.

Glen[/b]

That's the reason why I'm not too hot on tornado prospects today. Yes, there is strong low-level shear along and north of the front, but the low-90s needed for surface- based convection (ingesting the low-level shear) will make T-Td deficits in the 25-30F range, yielding very high LCLs. Typically, one wants T-TD deficit to be <15F , as that, generally, yields LCLs <1500m, above which tornadoes become increasingin unlikely very quickly. LCLs will lower with time due to diabatic cooling this evening and continued moisture advection, but I'm not sure that we'll end up with LCLs low enough to do much before storms become elevated / non-surface based.

 

[Dan Christianson]

Lets hope that some 90's can occure im thinking south of here should be able to do it, i give it a couple of hours 2 at the most with some clear sky and heating, this would suck though if CAP doesnt subside.... :?: hmmm what to do? but wait and see"

 

[Dan Christianson]

Exclude my last post ... its not looking to good as of yet, i think were gonna be CAPPED" , now in saying that nothign will happen were gonna get STORMS now you watch?

ughhh ? theres always tommorow. :cry:

 

[ChrisStrunk]

Current Conditions

Currently here in Shenandoah, IA in SW IA it is a very warm 91F with a dew point of 59F at 3:00 PM. It would be nice to get the dewpoints into the mid-60's, but that might be too much to ask for this late in the setup. Also I agree with concerns of very high T-Td spreads, as ours is currently at 32F. LCL's will be high.

Still hoping for storms, although North/Northwest looks like a better bet than here.

EDIT: I also share concerns of a strong cap...

 

[Jason Montano]

I'm sitting in Omaha and waiting... I hope we can get storms to initiate around here. Temps in SE, NE are nearing 90 and high 60's dp's are just S of here riding in on a SE sfc wind at 15-20kts. LCL's do appear to be a big concern but I'm hoping for the best.

The cap best break especially since the SPC just put out a MCD concerning tornado threat in the TX panhandle...

 

[Jeff Lawson]

Well, convergence has been pretty focused near Grand Island much of the morning and afternoon thus far, so we might get one good storm to fire out there late. Any tornado threat should be pretty well mitigated given the high bases, of course.

 

[Chris Allington]

we can all hope...lol

 

[Jeff Miller]

.

Nice cumulus field with some nice Cu towers on visible sat getting organized just south of Norfolk and west of Omaha in EC Nebraska... showing some signs of trying to overcome the capping inversion, no "break" as of yet. Early enough in the game and plenty of heating remaining this afternoon, bit CIN still at -75 so still has some eroding to do here. MUCAPE currently at 2500... and with supercell composite parameters over 10 and LIs to -6 with great shear, I would definately still be sitting tight and hopeful at this point no matter how foreboding that capping inversion looks.

 

[Douglas Mitchell]

my crew and i are sitting in Wahoo now, hoping for the cap to break. my car themometer is reading 94 degrees, not bad considering last week at this time i was sitting in 30 degree temps and snow. Satellite showing a cu field developing over ECentral NE. I'm putting my money on that right now.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Lol, I'm in Wahoo too -- sorry I didn't get back to you about pooling earlier, I've already got a pal coming along in my car. Where are you guys at? Not much going on at the moment -- we just finished a beer at the local bar, lol.

 

[Glen Romine]

While most of our eyes are all focused on the cumulus field over east central NE, rather impressive field has formed over the last hour or so in north central KS, near Philipsburg, where convergent flow and low 90's temperatures are threatening to break through the cap. While this area is fairly dry, if a cell can get going it won't have to travel too far to the east (say Red Cloud NE) to tap into low 60 dewpoints by late evening. Deep layer shear questionable down there, but certainly worth watching at this point - since there isn't much else yet.

Glen

 

[nickgrillo]

Currently sitting in Columbus, NE, watching CU develop to my south and west. Temp just south of here (Lincoln) is around 88F with a dew point of 63F, so we may head a bit south, but we're gonna sit around in Columbus for a bit and wait...