05/10/05: TALK: NE/IA/IL

[nickgrillo]

There is definitely a risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow....

I'm loving NE Nebraska for tomorrow. There is somewhat of a large dew point depression across there (10-15F), therefore, I'm somewhat expecting high-bases on some of these storms. I'm still expecting a few tornadoes tomorrow, especially soon after initiation, and my current target is Norfolk, NE...

We'll probably leave Norman tonight...

 

[Brian Press]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
HASTINGS NE
342 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2005

..THIS ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE
NEXT BIG SEVERE WX EVENT FOR THE AREA AS CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXCEEDING 35 TO 40 KTS WILL BE LIKELY NORTH OF THE FRONT. SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES LOOK LIKELY NORTH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH MAY BE AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH DAKOTA INSTEAD OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

My Brothers and I leave from So. Cal at 6am to arive in OKC at 12:30. We will be racing north ASAP..

See ya out there.

 

[Dick McGowan]

Originally posted by nickgrillo
There is definitely a risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow....

I'm loving NE Nebraska for tomorrow. There is somewhat of a large dew point depression across there (10-15F), therefore, I'm somewhat expecting high-bases on some of these storms. I'm still expecting a few tornadoes tomorrow, especially soon after initiation, and my current target is Norfolk, NE...

We'll probably leave Norman tonight...

Nick, agreed on high bases, i don't expect initiation until around 20-21z. I have the day off, so we're thinking of heading to NE nebraska tomorrow also. Good luck to all those out there!!!

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I'll be getting a late start tomorrow due to class til 2...So I'll likely play further downstream on the wf in eastern Iowa/western Illinois. If I had more time, I'd play NW Iowa...but...western Illinois will have to do, and doesnt look horrible either.

 

[Tony Laubach]

I think chances are slim all over this setup, but just as good as another pending where you're at in this system... a small group of us from Colorado will be heading out early in the morning for SW Nebraska to play the front in this area... think it'll be a crap-shoot for everyone tomorrow and hopefully will pay off well for everyone chancing this system. See ya in the field tomorrow!

 

[Verne Carlson]

That group from Colorado just got bigger by one more. An hour ago my management was wanting me to stay put and work on a "critical" software bug but now they want to throw the whole thing out and rewrite it which means it will not get done tomorrow! So I am back on the chase, seeing pea size hail tomorrow could make me a happy camper!

 

[Amos Magliocco]

Tomorrow could be good, but perhaps further east than I want to go given Wednesday. That's not a great way to chase, but in this case I feel like it's the way I should think. Mainly because even further east, upper level support is marginal, though with the instability and low level shear, I think the tornado chances are pretty fair. Further west along the boundary, moisture and instability is an issue of course, and I'm looking at LBF and perhaps just north and east of there, depending on how little sleep I want tomorrow night.

Another marginal chase day, but perhaps better days are in store later. We'll see.

 

[Jason Montano]

Left Meridian, TX a few hours ago after chasing that monster hailer and am heading N on I-35 about to enter KS. I am not to sure about tomorrows chances but I am running out of chase days and will not go home w/o bagging at least one tornado this year. So, I am looking at SE NE and SW IA. SPC was a little more optimistic in their 6z outlook than I was after looking at the 0z NAM so I am likely to head, at least initially, to where they are marking down a 5% tornado risk.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Another marginal event that could easily become an elevated hail-fest, but I'm chasing this time ... let too much get in the way over the weekend, and this will be close to home. Have fun everyone.

EDIT - looking at a few parameters near Omaha ... feel a little encouraged after taking a look at NAM for 0z ...

TD = 64
Sfc CAPE = 2796.4
L.I. = -7.6
SWEAT = 623.3
Storm Dir = 253 degrees
Speed = 20 kt

While I still wonder about potentially high LCL and LFC numbers, the current target looks to me to be north of Omaha right on the NE/IA state line ... near Sioux City. Will have to watch the boundary closely tomorrow ... storms that develop right on and just to the north of the WF will be the ones to play, IMO. May revise the target further south tomorrow depending on various factors.

 

[Amos Magliocco]

As last night, I stilll like North Platte to Ansley, hopefully no further east and north of there. 12z RUC holds the front in place optomistically for us; I don't want to get far north of I-80 unless absolutely necessary. Forecasting as well a very tight temp gradient by 0Z. Storms moving along that boundary might be very interesting. Agree that OAX area looks good too. Checked their VAD profile (too impatient for the sounding), and showed excellent low level turning at 13z. Good luck all.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Leaving the house in about an hour for Ogallala. Encouraged to see SPC fall in agreement with me and the target further west. Will head up I-76 for Ogallala and stop there for data, lunch, and maybe a brisk jog! Good luck to all out there as I still think this remains a crapshoot! Never did well in Vegas, hopefully the Plains will luck me better!

 

[nickgrillo]

We're heading towards York in about a half hour... I'm currently near Topeka, KS...

I feel really encouraged about today and it's supercell/tornado potential...

 

[Ben Prusia]

I'm very discouraged by this setup, mainly by the huge model differences in moisture available for today for eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. RUC has only progged up to 50 degree dewpoints for that area at 0Z Tuesday, while the NAM has progged 65 degree or higher dewpoints. I have a feeling that this will turn into an all out hail-fest for eastern NE into western IA (LCL too high-with high temps reaching near or at 90) with better chances for tornadoes out west nearer to the surface Low. However, there is good moisture convergence along the front so I will continue to monitor throughout the day, and should conditions change, Omaha is only a short 2.5 hour drive from here anyway.

 

[J.B. Dixon]

Well, I'm simply playing the warm front location now. Monitoring for as long as I can here in Lincoln, but likely I'll be hanging out on the I-29 corridor from Co. Bluffs to Sioux City. I'm still contemplating being on the Nebraska side of the river, because the earlier the better on these storms. And crossing at Blair seems logical given the progged location of the moisture convergence.

Agreed with Amos.....wind fields at OAX look encouraging this morning.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/oax.gif

Moisture convergence RUC at 0z sticks out like a sore thumb from North Platte/Cozad to Norfolk to Harlan, IA. Be on it, either west or east portions, and it looks like it could be gravy.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/ruc1...hr_sfc_mcli.gif

Good luck, kids!! Should be an interesting day.

 

[Joe Zemek]

RUCing what I'm seeing?

Was going to post same as Ben re: RUC. I'm only chaircasting today, but I wonder about the huge diff in the RUC version of events. Looking at moisture in place & the placement and expected development of the CO low, I don't see the RUC justification for the strength and distance of the dryline--make that big dry airmass--progression, nor the lack of northward transport into NE. Even if the northward transport doesn't pan out into NE, it should still be near the NE/KS border at the very least. This western moisture eater scenario I do not buy at all. NAM seems to have a better grip in moisture in place.

Good luck to all the actual chasers. FWIW, my initial target would be Kearney.