05/10/05: TALK: NE/IA/IL

[Mike Peregrine]

SPC certainly seems confident in NAM solutions for heavier moisture and precip initiation in eastern Nebraska. Tornadoes almost seem to be a passing comment in the forecast language (odd with hatched probablistic), but as expected - it will be imperitive for chasers to maintain diligence when it comes to keeping track of WF position later this afternoon, as storms rooted along the front should be seriously spinning. Will be leaving for Neb City/Omaha by 1:30-2:00 to re-check data. Storms should be moving straight east along the boundary up there. Hopefully we won't be chasing after tail end charlies all afternoon under a massive bow echo.

 

[Ben Prusia]

The 15Z RUC is showing basically the same thing as the 12Z RUC as far as moisture availability, or lack thereof according to the model.

However, the SPC wording (heavily dependent on the NAM model) may encourage me to take a little outing to the Omaha/Lincoln areas, but still not sure of yet. I may leave by 1:30 should conditions warrant to make it to Nebraska City around 3:30-4:00-ish.

 

[Ben McMillan]

I will be departing at about 1pm today and will head west to the Shelby county area.

As of 11:30am, surface analysis placed a northward-moving warm front extending from Lamoni to Clarinda to Nebraska City with excellent shear profiles setting up along the boundary. So excellent, in fact, that one could argue there is close to 180 degrees of turning in the lower levels of the atmosphere starting with E-SE surface winds at the surface, shifting to a more southerly flow at 850mb, then coming full circle to a west wind at 500mb.

This set-up looks excellent for at least rotating storms, and possibly more than that. The 1630z SPC outlook reflects this concern with the addition of a "hatched area" for today's tornado outlook chart. This indicates a higher chance of F2-F5 tornadoes. I am not saying these types of tornadoes are going to happen, just saying one should pay attention to things like this the SPC does to signal an increasing concern about the day's potential.

Whatever happens, this is the type of set-up us Iowa chasers live for, so break out the camera and good luck to all chasing today.

Sincerely,

Ben McMillan

 

[Glen Romine]

Yeah, I think the basic concept behind the forecast is that confidence in convection developing on the warm side of the boundary is still low - whereas elevated supercells capable of generating very large hail (supporting the mod risk area) is quite likely. Hatched comes in as a safety measure, as if storms become surface-based - potential is fairly good for a few strong tornadoes given expected conditions in the area. I guess I'd aim for the Columbus area based on current trends.

Glen

 

[Dick McGowan]

Well Mike johnston and I should be leaving Lee's summit within an hour, headed north, positioning ourselves around Nebraska City. Good luck to all out there, and be safe.

 

[Justin Walker]

Cirrus deck eroding to the N and W, so won't become an issue with today's convection. Cu field trying to go up, but is mixing out slowly. Mid 60's Td's sneeking up through NE KS. Looks like it's all lining up with the NAM.

 

[Ben Prusia]

I'm going to bite, I am going to leave Overland Park, Kansas in about 30 minutes to an hour to head to I-29 and Exit 10 - (IA-2) or into Nebraska City. Good luck all!

 

[Eric B'Hymer]

Interesting wind profile from northern nebraska from and fsl profiler.

See this

 

[Jeff Lawson]

I have a 4:30 appointment here in Omaha that I'm reluctant to cancel, but I have a feeling initiation will be late enough (and close enough) that it won't be much of a problem. So, I'll be monitoring close to home.

 

[Amos Magliocco]

Wow. Well I like my Ansley target even MORE now. LOL. However front might not lift that far north. Broken Bow area under cloud cover. Front intersects I-80 where I am now in Lexington and it is very apparent visually; one of those boundaries with a big neon sign: chase me. And so I will and worry about sleep in July. moisture pooling south of the front nicely and RUC brings wrap around dews nearly to 60F here, CAPE to >2200 j/kg. Low cu already bubbling and front is lifting north of the highway a little now; much hotter than only 20 mins ago.

Originally posted by Amos Magliocco
As last night, I stilll like North Platte to Ansley, hopefully no further east and north of there. 12z RUC holds the front in place optomistically for us; I don't want to get far north of I-80 unless absolutely necessary. Forecasting as well a very tight temp gradient by 0Z. Storms moving along that boundary might be very interesting. Agree that OAX area looks good too. Checked their VAD profile (too impatient for the sounding), and showed excellent low level turning at 13z. Good luck all.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Wow some of the coolest and most wide spread ACCAS I have ever seen forming rapidly overhead here in eastern NE north of Omaha. I may have to go get ready. Wish I had my cam out here with me(at folks) so I could take their pic and stay here.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Surface winds now starting to back nicely from just N of KC Metro area up into E NE as dewpoints strengthen. As Dick mentioned, we will be leaving Lee's Summit shortly, to head N on I-29. We want to get up to Nebraska City and monitor/creep from there. As usual in this area this year, storms will likely wind up in LP mode, but our strategy on this one is to approach the risk area patiently from the south. Good luck to everyone!

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Originally posted by Mike Hollingshead
Wish I had my cam out here with me(at folks) so I could take their pic and stay here.

You mean Hollingshead actually goes places without a camera? I thought it must have been surgically attached by now. hehe

Getting geared up now ... should be leaving St. Joe by 2:00 p.m. Ahh May ... and we thought you would never get here.

 

[DanHinch]

We have been sitting here at Sapp Bros. in Nebraska City monitoring the front waiting to make our next move. May see some of you out this way.

Dan

 

[Eric B'Hymer]

Wish i wasnt sitting here in se ks 5 hours south.