Mike Smith
Downtown Wichita has about 3" and northeast parts of the city have 4-5" already.
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After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.
I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.
For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.
From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.
Sincerely, Jeff D.
02/09/11 FCST: Southern Plains
- Thread starter Jacob Ferden
- Start date
Jesse Risley
Staff member
The latest suite of RR products indicates the heaviest band of snowfall will occur in a polygon from just NNE of AMA - just NNW of OUN - ICT - near Beaver, OK through 13z WED. While the NAM backed off on those previously heavier QPF totals, the 12z ECMWF outputs 0.46" QPF for OUN and 0.48" QPF for ICT, whereas the 12z GFS outputs 0.72" QPF for OUN and 0.51" QPF for ICT.
LSERs should remain >15:1 for most of the event with some dendritic growth zone depths >100 mb for at least six hours across S KS and parts of OK late tonight and early WED. The HRR is showing some pretty stout UVV across the region overnight.
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Andrew Francis
EF3
Per models data and HPC it looks like you can't get any more of a bullseye for this storm than OKC. We are certainly being spoiled the last couple winters!
Robert Dewey
EF5
The positive factors seem to be a fairly high snow ratio & good juxtaposition of lift, RH > 80% and DGZ. Latest RUC doesn't really kick up winds much, so the snow ratios look like they'll stay safely around 20:1 or so.
The negative factors are a rapidly filling surface low, mid level wave shearing out and peeling east quickly, dry air wrapping into the system leading to a quick end to precipitation, etc.
This leads to my main "beef" with the system - the duration - which looks rather short across the OK / TX... unlike what they're seeing up in KS, which seems to be under the pivot point.
The negative factors are a rapidly filling surface low, mid level wave shearing out and peeling east quickly, dry air wrapping into the system leading to a quick end to precipitation, etc.
This leads to my main "beef" with the system - the duration - which looks rather short across the OK / TX... unlike what they're seeing up in KS, which seems to be under the pivot point.
Andrew Francis
EF3
I kind of agree with that post Mr Dewey, I hope the models are correct on the amounts here in OK. But I must agree that it looks like we could get dry slotted with the way the system looks to be exiting into the plains currently.
It is going to be interesting to see how the system handles dropping southward overnight.
It is going to be interesting to see how the system handles dropping southward overnight.
Mike Smith
12" of snow in Great Bend, 11" in Hutchinson.
Patrick Marsh
EF5
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2006
- Messages
- 783
30:1 snow-to-liquid ratios will easily do that for you.
Robert Dewey
EF5
17 inches being reported in Harvey, KS. I think that's a bit above the 6-10 I mentioned earlier (lol). Most reports are in the 8-15 inch range... and I think that will clearly be the winner for this storm. I have my doubts about areas not too far south of the OK border seeing over 6-8 inches. With that said, they'll get 20.
RMacDonald
Hey guys, just pushed out fresh smartmodel runs for 01Z. Just looking at snowfall potential around the midwest, still tracking snow accumulation of around 8" in the Oklahoma City areas, 7" around the Tulsa region and out in W. OK another 4-6" inches of snow. Up in Kansas seeing an additional 1-3" for tonight to add to the impressive totals up there. Any thoughts or updates out there. 30:1 ratio was not even close to what I was tracking time to pull the data in for a study.
Mike Smith
Here is an observation you do not see often in this part of the country. Heavy snow with a temperature of -2°F.
KGCK 090149Z 02020KT 1SM +SN FEW016 SCT024 OVC030 M18/M21 A3033 RMK AO2 P0000
KGCK 090149Z 02020KT 1SM +SN FEW016 SCT024 OVC030 M18/M21 A3033 RMK AO2 P0000
rdale
EF5
Hmmm... I don't think +SN can come with 1SM visibility? Sounds like a coding error.
(b) Intensity of Snow and Drizzle. The intensity of snow
and drizzle shall be based on the reported surface visibility
in accordance with Table 8-4 when occurring alone.
Table 8-4. Intensity of Snow or Drizzle Based on Visibilty
Intensity Criteria
Light Visibility > ½ mile.
Moderate Visibility > ¼ mile but < = ½ mile.
Heavy Visibility < = ¼ mile.
(b) Intensity of Snow and Drizzle. The intensity of snow
and drizzle shall be based on the reported surface visibility
in accordance with Table 8-4 when occurring alone.
Table 8-4. Intensity of Snow or Drizzle Based on Visibilty
Intensity Criteria
Light Visibility > ½ mile.
Moderate Visibility > ¼ mile but < = ½ mile.
Heavy Visibility < = ¼ mile.
RMacDonald
Yeah, it maybe present weather lag, alogorithms trying to catchup to the improving conditions. We have the same issues on the military side systems. Also could be the wind at 20kts, kicking up the snow and thinking it is snowing hard also.
This is quite possibly the strongest CF in terms of gradient I have seen since the Thanksgiving 2006 OKC snowstorm
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Robert Dewey
EF5
Latest HRRR continues to show 4-8 inches across central and northern OK, with the higher end toward the northeast part of the state. I'm still betting on 6-8 in OKC. If I had to pick a solid number at this time, I'd say 6.0 inches. Let's see how I do 
RMacDonald
Just ran and looked at my 05Z Smartmodel, across the Oklahoma region looking like lower accumulations. Earlier runs around 00Z was showing 6-10" across the region, now with the latest, Tulsa is progged to get around 5.6", Oklahoma city 4", McAlester and Okmulgee was around 5.5". Any thoughts on the snow accumulation.
