Chris Vagasky
EF3
Snowing in Norman currently.
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02/09/11 FCST: Southern Plains
- Thread starter Jacob Ferden
- Start date
Jim Saueressig
EF5
This was the 10:00 CST totals up here. We are probably at 17-18 now and still light snow. We are the right bullseye.
I wonder how much of that was added to by Wolf Creek Lake??
I wonder how much of that was added to by Wolf Creek Lake??
Andrew Francis
EF3
Yea looks like OK is not gunna get the heaviest totals. Snowing heavy now. But with the precip shield picking up pace I see it is going to be hard to pick up the 8-10 forecasted.
Bart_Comstock
EF5
Well Bartlesville, OK has a foot on the ground now and may get more. NW Ark looks like they will take on a ton of snow today as that heavy band of snow crosses the OK/AR line. Although Tulsa didn't completely dodge the bullet it looks like the metro has been largely spared and has only been grazed by this bullet.
Trey Thee
EF2
I just woke up, I've got a solid 5+ here at my place in Owasso with more heavy snow bands moving in. The drifts are bad again. There is a horrendous amount of snow on my roof and my neighbors roof. Additionally my driveway is a clusterf*** again.
RMacDonald
Good Morning, just updated new smartmodel output. Looking at the heaviest snow right now to be in the Fayetteville/Hot Springs AR areas. Looking at 5-6 additional accumulations of snow for those areas. 3-5" additional for the SE parts of OK. Still tracking 2-3" across N. MS, AL, and GA.
James Hilger
EF4
Im in Rogers Ar. and we have 11.25 inches at the moment. Springdale Ar. has 16 inches. (All NW Arkansas) I found a snow plow that had gotten stuck. My 4X4 was making it ok, but i went home. It was starting to be not worth the risk.
Trey Thee
EF2
James is that 11.25 remaining from last weeks storm or NEW accumulations the last ten or twelve hours? If thats new accumulations you guys have a long day ahead
There's heavy bands moving through the Tulsa metro and headed east towards you guys. Some of the bands have been relatively impressive.
Robert Dewey
EF5
Well, I may have actually overestimated snowfall for OKC... with 3.6 inches being reported 6 miles SW. While I did say areas further NE would get more snow, I didn't anticipate the 20 inches they're reporting in NW AR either.
Andrew Francis
EF3
I am in N OKC and we have just around 6 inches and still moderately snowing. This system is booking it out of here! I am wondering how much areas in N central OK got. Around Stillwater to Ponca City.
Jesse Risley
Staff member
It would appear that, in this case, while it might not have nailed down the exact locations of heavier snow banding, the higher totals being advertised by the NAM 24-48 hrs ago, which correlated with the heavier QPF axis, turned out to verify as being closer to reality than it has been on a few of the more recent events.
James Hilger
EF4
James is that 11.25 remaining from last weeks storm or NEW accumulations the last ten or twelve hours? If thats new accumulations you guys have a long day ahead
There's heavy bands moving through the Tulsa metro and headed east towards you guys. Some of the bands have been relatively impressive.
That was taken from a area that was completely clear. Most of it had melted off except some snow packed roads, etc. About 15 miles from me in Gentry Ar there is reports of 20".
Trey Thee
EF2
Man, not good for the folks out there. Snow bands are moving out of Tulsa, although a new band blew up just to the west of Skiatook/Owasso. Heading east. Looks like the NAM had this thing nailed down days in advance.
Jesse Risley
Staff member
Granted, it didn't indicate all of those 12" - 20" reports from obviously heavier banding across NC/NE OK and NW AR, but the HRRR didn't do too bad either. Compare last night's 00z runs of the HRRR and the NAM, respectively, to the actual snowfall reports received thus far.
Reports received this far - Tulsa WFO / Norman WFO / Amarillo WFO (based on reports received)
Reports received this far - Tulsa WFO / Norman WFO / Amarillo WFO (based on reports received)
Now you can compare these to last night's 00z run of the GFS, which painted a slightly different picture:
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Robert Dewey
EF5
Much of my forecast was based on the HRRR (and what I saw developing over the TX panhandle). I noticed the HRRR showed upwards of 10 inches over extreme NE OK / NW AR, but that was a pretty small area, so I figured it would be the exception and stuck with 6-8. Looking back at radar, the band was fairly narrow... I would say the absolute heaviest snows (>18 inches) fell within a band that wasn't wider than 25 miles at any given time, which stayed pretty stationary.
