Royce Sheibal
EF3
I'm going to stick with target area rules because that's what I'm used to, so here goes winter weather discussion for Blizzard Geddon 2016: Great Plains Edition.
12Z GFS today brought the low a bit further south, down into S KS / N OK as it passes east. This likely means that the MO-Valley area will see mostly or all snow rather than a rain/sleet/snow mix as previously indicated in prior runs. Models have been pretty consistent with the strength and moisture of the low, but the North / South position and timing is now in question. Q-Precip over W KS is probably overdone at 2", and 1.5 near Omaha, up into IA and MN. Keeping with 10to1 or 12to1 ratios means most of the area will probably see 8-12", however if the GFS precip isn't overdone, we could see areas in the 18-24 range, which would be pretty remarkable.
Unfortunately we can't be more certain about amounts until roughly Saturday, when NAM will give us a better idea. Euro model seems to be agreeing with GFS so far, so confidence in some sort of winter event is high, but the magnitude is still quite unsure, obviously. Keeping with my love of GFS, it's really aggressive with WAA all day Tuesday. I've got the impression there will be a TROWAL setting up over a line from Goodland-Lincoln-Omaha-Des Moines. Strong winds are almost a sure bet right now, so even a moderate snowfall <8" could spell major blizzard conditions for some time.
Stock up on your bread and milk this weekend, the stores around here will be empty by Monday. Snow removal in Omaha has been non-existent the last couple of months, so if a big storm does hit, expect school and business closures on both Tuesday and Wednesday.
12Z GFS today brought the low a bit further south, down into S KS / N OK as it passes east. This likely means that the MO-Valley area will see mostly or all snow rather than a rain/sleet/snow mix as previously indicated in prior runs. Models have been pretty consistent with the strength and moisture of the low, but the North / South position and timing is now in question. Q-Precip over W KS is probably overdone at 2", and 1.5 near Omaha, up into IA and MN. Keeping with 10to1 or 12to1 ratios means most of the area will probably see 8-12", however if the GFS precip isn't overdone, we could see areas in the 18-24 range, which would be pretty remarkable.
Unfortunately we can't be more certain about amounts until roughly Saturday, when NAM will give us a better idea. Euro model seems to be agreeing with GFS so far, so confidence in some sort of winter event is high, but the magnitude is still quite unsure, obviously. Keeping with my love of GFS, it's really aggressive with WAA all day Tuesday. I've got the impression there will be a TROWAL setting up over a line from Goodland-Lincoln-Omaha-Des Moines. Strong winds are almost a sure bet right now, so even a moderate snowfall <8" could spell major blizzard conditions for some time.
Stock up on your bread and milk this weekend, the stores around here will be empty by Monday. Snow removal in Omaha has been non-existent the last couple of months, so if a big storm does hit, expect school and business closures on both Tuesday and Wednesday.