RMacDonald
Just pushed out 07Z Runs and looking at the Oklahoma region, specifically Tulsa, initial fcsts is 6-9 inches. Will be tracking it to see how it pans out the next 24-48 hours.
-
While Stormtrack has discontinued its hosting of SpotterNetwork support on the forums, keep in mind that support for SpotterNetwork issues is available by emailing [email protected].
02/09/11 FCST: Southern Plains
- Thread starter Jacob Ferden
- Start date
rdale
EF5
At .1-.3" per hour, that's a very long storm. Can you detail the physics / setup / etc behind the smartmodel?
Jesse Risley
Staff member
There are still some model differences in regards to final placement of the heaviest QPF axis through early THUR. The NAM wants to place the heaviest QPF (0.75" - 1.25") along an axis from NC and C OK ESE into NW and central AR. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are depicting the heavier, albeit lighter (at least comparative to the amounts indicated by NAM) QPF more across WC and parts of C OK (0.50" - 0.75") southward into the Red River valley region of N TX. The forecast totals by the NAM would yield notable differences in snowfall amounts, as well as the location of the heavier snowfall totals..this may be resolved to a more significant degree by later model runs today.
Mike Smith
I'm going to make the same observation I did last week. Pw's are awfully low for the amounts of precipitation the NAM is forecasting.
12Z MONDAY...
FTW: 0.31"
OUN: 0.25
CRP: 0.41"
And, CRP's low-level winds are out of the NW.
Having a hard time seeing precipitation amounts of over an inch with Pw's this low. That will have to change.
Mike
Corrected Tuesday to Monday above.
12Z MONDAY...
FTW: 0.31"
OUN: 0.25
CRP: 0.41"
And, CRP's low-level winds are out of the NW.
Having a hard time seeing precipitation amounts of over an inch with Pw's this low. That will have to change.
Mike
Corrected Tuesday to Monday above.
Last edited by a moderator:
I am also very curious about the details of this SmartModel. Also, RMacDonald, there are a number of incorrect links in the drop down menu below below the big map on your site.
Was just thinking the same thing this morning Mike. This system following so closely on the heels of the Sunday night system may pose glood and doom in the way of sig precip, but then again Wednesday nights storm came close on the heels of Tuesdays blizzard and was much more sig than everyone thought.
RMacDonald
Hello, sorry about the site, trying to tackle a state at a time, with work and family it is a slow process. Hoping to have the clickable map fully loaded and ready to go. For the model, it was a side project for my last duty station we had trouble forecasting winds/snow in a certain area. So I created this model. It first grabs the last 24-48 hours of observations, and the last and current run of NAM, GFS, WRF (if available) surface data and I do comparisons of actual weather versus model forecasted weather. I come up with a correction value then apply to the current runs and then adjust the model output and it gives out an hour by hour forecast. So each time I run it grabs more comparison, which in theory give a better correction value to the model. I had success in Alaska, but still working out kinks for the CONUS area.
RMacDonald
Just pushed out a 02Z run, looking at the Tulsa area, showing 10" of snow possible, with 1" per hour rates from 12-18Z on the 9th. While the Oklahoma City are looking at a bit less with around 8" of snow. Thoughts.
David Reimer
EF2
Quite a forecast for North Texas with the two main models diverging on an eventual outcome for snow here in North Texas. The 0Z NAM continues to hold to its guns keeping any significant accumulations of 2" or more along and north of US-380, with the GFS having that line down by Hillsboro and presenting the US-380 corridor with half a foot of snow. The local offices have pointed out that the NAM is being regarded as the outlier due to its northerly track with the storm and its difficulty handling the significance of the arctic air. However, after last Friday's surprise where all the main models busted epically and the HRRR proved itself, I won't be making writing anything in stone forecast wise until tomorrow afternoon where we can have several runs with upper-air data and the support of higher resolution data. However, if you had to ask me now what I would say for Wednesday. I'd say based off the events so far in this pattern we've been in, that we're going to end up shut down here in D/FW once again for Wednesday and Thursday. Hopefully by Friday (when we should get about freezing) we'll be able to get rid of this ice once and for all.
If you live in Texas, or you're just interested, I invite you to head over to TexasStormChasers.com and read the new discussion I just posted with my thoughts on what we might end up getting here in North Texas. You can read the article at http://www.texasstormchasers.com/2011/02/07/292011-major-winter-storm-discussion-2/
If you live in Texas, or you're just interested, I invite you to head over to TexasStormChasers.com and read the new discussion I just posted with my thoughts on what we might end up getting here in North Texas. You can read the article at http://www.texasstormchasers.com/2011/02/07/292011-major-winter-storm-discussion-2/
RMacDonald
Just posted projected snowfall outputs based on SmartModel output for midwest and southern states, under the link Feb 9-11 Smart SnowFall.
http://smartwxmodel.net
http://smartwxmodel.net
RMacDonald
Just uploaded forecasted snowfall predictions and 13Z model output, click on Feb 9-11 Snowfall for forecasted snow amounts
http://smartwxmodel.net
http://smartwxmodel.net
Robert Dewey
EF5
After spending 10 minutes glancing over the various models and data, I think the winner will be central KS (totals of 6-10 inches NW of ICT), with lesser amounts elsewhere.
RMacDonald
Just looking over my run as of 18Z, right now it shooting for amounts in Tulsa for 9", Oklahoma City, 10.3", Wichita-7.6", Gage-7.5", and Dodge City at 7.4". Still trying to work out ratio equations. Thoughts.
Complete snowfall output can be viewed http://smartwxmodel.net/snow.pdf
Complete snowfall output can be viewed http://smartwxmodel.net/snow.pdf
Robert Dewey
EF5
Is that additional snowfall? Areas just NW of Wichita are pushing 10 inches.
With as progressive as this system is expected to become, I think it will be hard to get the +12 inches shown in the NWS grids around OKC. I'll go with 6-8 inches for OKC, with more emphasis on the 6.
RMacDonald
Copy, that is additional to what they already had before 18Z. I was looking the the OUN area, confidence factor in that is not high. But if I was a betting man I would lean more in the 8, if we they can land on a zone heavy snow for a few hours.
