Winter Weather Predictions

[Geoff Boyle]

Now that we are actually getting snow out west, this got me thinking about what the winter is going to be like this year.

So, what do you think?

Personally, I'm a firm believer in the "5 year cycle" of Canada. It's been 5 years since our last big freeze out on the West Coast, so I'm sure we're due for a white Christmas this year. The Prairies will probably be cold as usual. Though I think that what we saw around the Maritimes throughout the past week is a sign of what’s to come for that region. I'm not so sure about what it's going be like in the US.

 

[Jason Boggs]

I think it all depends on where you live. Being from Amarillo, I think we are going to have a slow and boring winter this year. I think the snow totals will be lacking around here this year. I would not be surprised to see a snow event this winter with no more than 4 inches of snow if that. We got too much snow around here last year and we know that can't happen 2 years in a row. NOTE TO KAREN RHODEN: I don't think you will be coming to the Panhandle this year for a good ol snow chase like you did last year. I guess we will see. Maybe the snow will kick in around, ohh, May or so!!! :shock:


SNOWING IN AMARILLO ON MAY 2nd 2005!

 

[Scott Olson]

Well if the last few days are any indication I say 'Way above normal!'. We just had a blizzard on Monday, Just as we were starting to get electricity online and get the roads cleared WHAM! Another SWV comes through that was orignally only supposed to put down small amounts but literally put more snow down in our area than the last system ever did. It took me 25 minutes to drive 4 miles, cars were spinning out and ditching everywhere. I love reading about the snowstorms of the past in the Dakotas. The only thing I don't like: Unless you live in Sioux Falls, Pierre or Rapid City don't expect them to get the streets plowed until after the storm. I am quite impressed by the Sioux Falls system of having sensors in the road to detect icing and coordinate plowing/chemical spraying in a 'command' environment.

 

[B Ozanne]

This is kind of a tough topic considering 2 huge countries. In general such a large area is almost always going to average out to be about normal.

Now, on a regional basis....I have no idea, let me get out the dart board.

 

[Shane Adams]

I voted "below seasonal" because there wasn't a "no season" option. Norman hasn't had a measurable snowfall that lasted over 4 hours in over two years. I don't expect that to change, since now we can't even get it to rain here anymore. This was the perfect town to build all the severe weather stuff in the country, because there's no chance of any of it being destroyed by severe weather.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I'll let everyone know my choice - after winter is over :lol:

I take it one storm at a time....

 

[Karen Politte]

What Shane said. :lol:

C'mon - in all seriousness - what the hell's going on in the midsection of the country right now? Like - anywhere south of Kansas, I mean. It's truly beginning to look like we're entering another "dust-bowl"-esque period. :?

I don't really know the drought facts and figures - but both the OUN and the DFW areas are well, WELL below normal just now. There was a drought graphic on OUN's Graphicast - but it's not on there this morning. Nevertheless - the fact remains that this is one helluva dry period we have entered into - I don't know if I can remember such a string of weeks and even months with so many Red Flag Warnings.

All I can say is that Norman has better pick up some rain through the winter or it's going ot turn into a very crap place to live - the new desert, I guess. Is our climate marching northwards indeed? Because it sure seems to me like I need to be chasing out of Omaha these days, too!!! No longer OUN or Amarillo.......and as for those DFW chasers - those poor guys!!!

Ever since I moved over here I have been regaled by the wondrous stories of snowfall in and around central Oklahoma. Snowstorms, feet of snow on the ground, etc. etc. :roll: I have yet to see 1" of snow that lasts past noon on a winter day in Norman. It has been pitiful. I wholeheartedly second Shane's entiment about it all!!!!

KR

 

[Andy Wehrle]

You need to move to Wisconsin, Karen. 62 tornadoes this year and it's snowing right now. :lol:

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Addressing Karen's point:

365-day percent-of-normal: http://climate.ocs.ou.edu/data/public/meso...t365dayspct.png
For more graphics (30, 60, 90, 120, 180, 365 day graphics) go to http://climate.ocs.ou.edu/rainfall_update.html

I haven't looked at any long-term forecast indicators, so I'll just take the NOAA / CPC winter forecast as having a better chance of verifying than my guess-cast has... LOL

 

[Dan Cook]

We just got about 4 inches last night.

 

[Karen Politte]

Originally posted by Andy Wehrle
You need to move to Wisconsin, Karen. 62 tornadoes this year and it's snowing right now. :lol:

:roll: LOL.....hey Andy how's it going? Ye-eah.......any place right now would be better than the cross-timbers......ugh! I totally agree with you......I think I *do* need to move to WI!!!

Jeff - thanks for reminding me that there's a host of great tools available from the OCS and the OK Mesonet. Nice graphic - and very telling. I'm tired of going out for walks and ending up after 30 minutes with chapped lips and a dry mouth. :? :roll:

KR

 

[Jeff Lawson]

When all else fails, guess "seasonal".

Winter is off to a cold and snowy start here in Omaha. We missed out on the big blizzard, but the last few weeks have seen several inches of snow, with more possible this weekend (and perhaps next week). Snow was hard to come by last year; the only thing that prevented us from coming in way below average on total seasonal snowfall was one big storm in early January.

There's been a lot of blockiness in the overall pattern as of late, however, so once we flip back to a western ridge/eastern trough setup, I suppose we could be in for a period of prolonged warmth. The thing is, prolonged warmth becomes less and less likely the deeper into December we get.

I'm moving to Denver before the end of Winter, so I guess I'll get my fair share of snow either way. By May, I'm sure I'll be sick of the stuff.

 

[nickgrillo]

Here in Detroit, I have already had some measurable snowfall so far this season... Considering that this is my last year here, I wouldn't mind an active winter with a few good winter storms. But, I will likely get sick of the snow soon enough (and will quickly look foward to spring)... Given the very active fall season, I am interested to see how this upcoming spring season will be in terms of severe weather

 

[mikegeukes]

Grand Rapids, Michigan so far 17.3 inches of snow, this season
8.3 inches above normal

GRAND RAPIDS MICHIGAN SNOWFALL TOTALS
2000-2001 98.1 inches
2001-2002 105.2 inches
2002-2003 88.0 inches
2003-2004 74.0 inches
2004-2005 80.7 inches
5 year average 89.2 inches

45 year total: 3358.7 inches of snow
Average Snowfall: 74.6 inches

Mike
http://mgweather.com
WIll I ever get the chance to move to the Great Plains

 

[Andrew Khan]

For North East TN, we usually see some large snow events, each winter. Last winter, we did not have a considerable snow event. We have already had a small snow so far, nothing to compare to what MI gets. I would say below average for this year, for NE TN. But with the Mountains around, they can cause weather anomalies whenever they feel like it......