Winter Weather Predictions

What kind of winter are we in for this year?

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Geoff Boyle

Now that we are actually getting snow out west, this got me thinking about what the winter is going to be like this year.

So, what do you think?

Personally, I'm a firm believer in the "5 year cycle" of Canada. It's been 5 years since our last big freeze out on the West Coast, so I'm sure we're due for a white Christmas this year. The Prairies will probably be cold as usual. Though I think that what we saw around the Maritimes throughout the past week is a sign of what’s to come for that region. I'm not so sure about what it's going be like in the US.
I think it all depends on where you live. Being from Amarillo, I think we are going to have a slow and boring winter this year. I think the snow totals will be lacking around here this year. I would not be surprised to see a snow event this winter with no more than 4 inches of snow if that. We got too much snow around here last year and we know that can't happen 2 years in a row. NOTE TO KAREN RHODEN: I don't think you will be coming to the Panhandle this year for a good ol snow chase like you did last year. I guess we will see. Maybe the snow will kick in around, ohh, May or so!!! :shock:

Well if the last few days are any indication I say 'Way above normal!'. We just had a blizzard on Monday, Just as we were starting to get electricity online and get the roads cleared WHAM! Another SWV comes through that was orignally only supposed to put down small amounts but literally put more snow down in our area than the last system ever did. It took me 25 minutes to drive 4 miles, cars were spinning out and ditching everywhere. I love reading about the snowstorms of the past in the Dakotas. The only thing I don't like: Unless you live in Sioux Falls, Pierre or Rapid City don't expect them to get the streets plowed until after the storm. I am quite impressed by the Sioux Falls system of having sensors in the road to detect icing and coordinate plowing/chemical spraying in a 'command' environment.
This is kind of a tough topic considering 2 huge countries. In general such a large area is almost always going to average out to be about normal.

Now, on a regional basis....I have no idea, let me get out the dart board.
I voted "below seasonal" because there wasn't a "no season" option. Norman hasn't had a measurable snowfall that lasted over 4 hours in over two years. I don't expect that to change, since now we can't even get it to rain here anymore. This was the perfect town to build all the severe weather stuff in the country, because there's no chance of any of it being destroyed by severe weather.
What Shane said. :lol:

C'mon - in all seriousness - what the hell's going on in the midsection of the country right now? Like - anywhere south of Kansas, I mean. It's truly beginning to look like we're entering another "dust-bowl"-esque period. :?

I don't really know the drought facts and figures - but both the OUN and the DFW areas are well, WELL below normal just now. There was a drought graphic on OUN's Graphicast - but it's not on there this morning. Nevertheless - the fact remains that this is one helluva dry period we have entered into - I don't know if I can remember such a string of weeks and even months with so many Red Flag Warnings.

All I can say is that Norman has better pick up some rain through the winter or it's going ot turn into a very crap place to live - the new desert, I guess. Is our climate marching northwards indeed? Because it sure seems to me like I need to be chasing out of Omaha these days, too!!! No longer OUN or Amarillo.......and as for those DFW chasers - those poor guys!!!

Ever since I moved over here I have been regaled by the wondrous stories of snowfall in and around central Oklahoma. Snowstorms, feet of snow on the ground, etc. etc. :roll: I have yet to see 1" of snow that lasts past noon on a winter day in Norman. It has been pitiful. I wholeheartedly second Shane's entiment about it all!!!!

Originally posted by Andy Wehrle
You need to move to Wisconsin, Karen. 62 tornadoes this year and it's snowing right now. :lol:

:roll: LOL.....hey Andy how's it going? Ye-eah.......any place right now would be better than the cross-timbers......ugh! I totally agree with you......I think I *do* need to move to WI!!!

Jeff - thanks for reminding me that there's a host of great tools available from the OCS and the OK Mesonet. Nice graphic - and very telling. I'm tired of going out for walks and ending up after 30 minutes with chapped lips and a dry mouth. :? :roll:

When all else fails, guess "seasonal".

Winter is off to a cold and snowy start here in Omaha. We missed out on the big blizzard, but the last few weeks have seen several inches of snow, with more possible this weekend (and perhaps next week). Snow was hard to come by last year; the only thing that prevented us from coming in way below average on total seasonal snowfall was one big storm in early January.

There's been a lot of blockiness in the overall pattern as of late, however, so once we flip back to a western ridge/eastern trough setup, I suppose we could be in for a period of prolonged warmth. The thing is, prolonged warmth becomes less and less likely the deeper into December we get.

I'm moving to Denver before the end of Winter, so I guess I'll get my fair share of snow either way. By May, I'm sure I'll be sick of the stuff.
Here in Detroit, I have already had some measurable snowfall so far this season... Considering that this is my last year here, I wouldn't mind an active winter with a few good winter storms. But, I will likely get sick of the snow soon enough (and will quickly look foward to spring)... Given the very active fall season, I am interested to see how this upcoming spring season will be in terms of severe weather :eek:
Grand Rapids, Michigan so far 17.3 inches of snow, this season
8.3 inches above normal

2000-2001 98.1 inches
2001-2002 105.2 inches
2002-2003 88.0 inches
2003-2004 74.0 inches
2004-2005 80.7 inches
5 year average 89.2 inches

45 year total: 3358.7 inches of snow
Average Snowfall: 74.6 inches

WIll I ever get the chance to move to the Great Plains
For North East TN, we usually see some large snow events, each winter. Last winter, we did not have a considerable snow event. We have already had a small snow so far, nothing to compare to what MI gets. I would say below average for this year, for NE TN. But with the Mountains around, they can cause weather anomalies whenever they feel like it......
In Edmonton we have started to get about a skiff of snow in the last
two days.We need more for two reasons.
(1)Going down to San Jose CA for Christmas this year and need more
snow to get ecited about the fact im leaving it for 12 days.
(2)The Farmers in Alberta need the moisture in a big way,summers are
getting dryer.I am yet to see a winter were you have to put flags on
car bumpers so you can see them over the snow drifts seperating the
east west lanes on city roads.
I voted above seasonal for Leadville (I am not sure about the rest of the country, probably seasonal). We have had a very wet winter so far. We had 18.8" of snow in October (above average) and 28.8" of snow in November (above average). Today (12/1/05) we got 7" of snow and more snow is forecasted. We have gotten almost 55" of snow in only 2 winter months! Our average is 120", so we are on pace to be well above average. We will see what happens. I hope the southern plains get some precip soon.
Here's the latest graphic on the drought from OUN. Note the Norman pit effect is alive and well.... :roll: The first scientifically-proven weather bubble on the planet.


We are right in the middle of an extreme drought. It's been the driest year I've ever seen. Last winter our snowfall total for the season was about 15" below normal.

We did pick up 2 1/2" last night.

Even though it's still pretty early, I have a good feeling about this season in the middle part of the country. It's been pretty active lately. Lots of decent storm systems with a good supply of moisture.