Warning Decision Update....

[Jason McKittrick]

I beg your pardon if this has already been discussed, but at least the OAX weather service office is issuing a new product this year. I read about it in their winter newsletter and yesterday I believe was the first official issuance of this product called the Warning Decision Update.........


WARNING DECISION UPDATE FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTHEAST OF MANHATTAN KANSAS. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF FALLS CITY NEBRASKA AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE KC METRO AREA. LATEST OBSERVED 18Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM TOPEKA INDICATES ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. MODIFYING THE SOUNDING FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS YIELDS VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING...ML CAPE OF 1437 J/KG WITH ML CIN ONLY 13 J/KG. WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA ATTM...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS BY 3 PM PER TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 39 FOR THAT AREA. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY MOVE THROUGH RICHARDSON...PAWNEE OR NEMAHA COUNTIES. SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE LATEST SPC EFFECTIVE SHEAR INDICATING OVER 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL SHEAR PARAMETERS NEAR THE WARM FRONT INDICATE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. THUS WE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 3 PM.



Seems like something that will be quite useful this year I suppose you might call it a 'micro-scale convective discussion'.
Has anyone else seen this product from your local NWS office? I looked this morning and could not find any other offices doing this.

 

[Greg Stumpf]

The Norman OK WFO has been doing this for 2-3 years now. I believe Tulsa and Fort Worth also do these now too. Look for the AWU product.

 

[Anthony Silver]

The KC/Pleasant hill office issues the Warning Decision updates frequently when severe weather is imminent or occurring. They place it under the area weather update header, and it can usually be found at this link: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=e...WU&issuedby=eax. The Norman, OK Forecast office also uses the product in the same situations. Their link is: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=OUNSPSOUN.

I think the warning decision updates are a very useful tool, it's kind of like a "heads up" for approaching activity.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

The Warning Decision Update / Area Weather Update (AWU) is my most favorite product issued by an NWSFO -- it's usually detailed and at least somewhat technical, meaning that you can get quite a bit of chaser-friendly information (radar trends, etc). I just wish OUN issued them more often and more regularly... I see they had a couple from Tuesday evening, but not a single one yesterday. I've found it to be a hugely beneficial product for chase decision making, particularly during this times that I don't have data/internet access.

 

[Rick Smith]

The link to see Warning Decision Updates issued by WFO Norman is http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=OUNAWUOUN.

WFO Tulsa does a similar thing, but theirs go out under the AFD header - they are called Mesoscale Updates.

Right now it is issued on an as-needed basis. and is intended primarily to relay what we're thinking to emergency managers and the media.

Rick