Tropical Depression Ten (10)

[Justin E. Reed]

Coolness, where'd u get this from. U.S. Navy weather, yeah, damn NAS Oceana being wayyy behind

 

[rdale]

No, NHC conf call. SubTrop 10 now alive...

 

[HAltschule]

I think it was no-brainer classifying this system as subtropical and not tropical based on the synoptic factors and appearance on satellite. I agree with the models that rapid or significant strengthening will not occur. Sure, this storm could get sustained winds of 40-50 MPH at best, but i would be surprised to see much more than that. SRV scans on area dopplers do not show winds being to strong...in fact this morning they 0.5 degree tilt SRV showed only 16 knots. I don't think the Gulf coast folkd have too much to worry about with this storm...it will be a weak to moderate system at best.Also, there isn't the kind of low level shear or dry air at mid levels present to expect a major tornado outbreak like when "Beryl" moved onshore. While some isolated tornadoes may occur, I don't see much favoring a large or significant outbreak. If more dry air can entrain, and if the low level shear can get "strong", then that may be a different story. But those factors are minimal right now.

 

[Blake Michaleski]

Or it can pull a "Humberto", treating those lucky enough to get into position to a hurricane ;-)

I've been in sit and wait mode for about 24hrs now... nothing else i can do to prepare except put my shoes on and walk out the door.

 

[Derrick Herndon]

Hell yeah Clark, finally, another fellow AG on the board. I might head over to Panama City Beach for my weekend off and record the waves and whatever happens there. Couple of tornadoes dropped in Lake County, is that county cursed?! Excellent banding squalls have pounded Metro JAX in the past 3 hours, and I'm here in Mayport watching evil lightning just 5 miles off the cost.

Ha! Well you can count another in your midst (prior AG1 1988-1996).

10L tried to develop an inner core last night as the center re-organized farther north near the convection but that fell apart. Yet another attempt appears to be underway but this system is so broad it seems unlikely that any significant strengthening can occur prior to landfall. Recon indicates steady pressures though winds of 47 kts might prompt NHC to upgrade it.

 

[Martin North]

I think if it gets within 2 kts of TS they'll upgrade it anyway. If only for public awareness reasons.

At least they've now confirmed 'Tropical' Depression status....fwiw...

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Best guess - Landfall will be Destin, Florida in about 60 minutes!

 

[Martin North]

Lol...it's well ashore now cruising across Eglin AFB....

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Immm - I have not (yet) seen a surface ob that shows anything above 20 mph sustained 1 min wind...

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Really - I was not aware of that at all - still I guess that this is a subject best left untouched....

 

[cdcollura]

Glad I passed this one up ;-(

No "Humberto effect" here, as JL said it was cold cored.

Landfall near Destin, FL had 25 kots winds - Whoop-de-doo.

Jacksonville, FL had 40 Knot gusts from this thing 3 days ago ;-(

Now looking at what's east of the windward Islands to see what's in store a week from now...

2007, like 2006, is disappointing.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Or Wednesday am for the sheared Low that will come out of Invest 91L in to Texas