Tropical Depression Ten (10)

Yeah....that RM Young is nice for sure. He certainly has that truck hooked up!

The tornado potential with this is questionable....but with some of the drier air around rotating into this ULL there could be a few tornadic cells. Lapse rates will be garbage and they will most likely be short lived, but with the moist environment and low level shear with the baroclinicity on the outer bands anything can happen.

Would like to see this thing really wrap up within the next 12 hours to see where he is going to head though.
 
I've been really following this one closely for days now, and-- I don't know-- I'm starting to feel like this is not going to be really good chase material.

I thought the new initialization point much further S, at the new low center over the SE Gulf, would result in the models showing a further-W landfall point-- i.e., N TX/SW LA-- but that does not seem to be the case-- and this thing just isn't going to have a lot of time or space over water to 1) really tighten up and become tropical and 2) strengthen significantly before a MS/AL/NW FL landfall.

I'd love to be wrong, of course-- but I'm not getting my hopes up about this one...
 
Last edited by a moderator:
P.S. I envy you guys who just need to drive an hour-- or not even-- to go chase a tropical cyclone.

Since I live in CA, deciding to chase is a big deal, because it means I have to get on a plane, etc. etc. And to justify that, the cyclone at least needs to have a real eyewall! I can't justify flying to the Gulf coast for some sloppy, subtropical mess with max winds 150 mi E of the center. :lol:
 
Nexrad loops are showing echo's rotating just to the WNW of TPA. If this were to become the dominate center this would give no more than 24 hours over the GOM. There has to be a lot of organization to occur in a real short time to make this a chaseable storm, I don't see it right now.
 
I agree, Jim. i'm just not convinced that this is going to be anything significant unless it gets its act together quick.

josh, yeah it's nice living so close except with Katrina, I was basically living in the diaster area for months.

Same thing with Ivan, Dennis, Cindy, Arlene, I was with in an hour and half from my apartment. Ivan I was 20 minutes to the east. I was in my bed asleep 45 minutes after they lifted curfew that morning.

I'm envious of those that live out in the plains as chasing supercells and tornadoes is what I enjoy the most.
 
Good day,

Jim Leonard said:
Nexrad loops are showing echo's rotating just to the WNW of TPA. If this were to become the dominate center this would give no more than 24 hours over the GOM. There has to be a lot of organization to occur in a real short time to make this a chaseable storm, I don't see it right now.
Click to expand...

That's true about 90% of the time...

Humberto went from TD to hurricane in 18 hours 50 miles from land ;-)
 
cdcollura said:
Good day,



That's true about 90% of the time...

Humberto went from TD to hurricane in 18 hours 50 miles from land ;-)
Click to expand...
Hurricane Humberto started out as a warm core system, 93L is currently a cold core system
 
Wow-- it just looks like complete garbage this evening.

I feel a little silly now for having followed this one so closely for so many days-- I feel like I've been led on by smoke and mirrors! But you just never know with these things...
 
98L

It concerns me that some folks replying to this thread want this thing to go tropical. I sure as hell do not want it to go tropical because I am at the weather training school here at Keesler AFB and I do not want to shelter because of it. This place does not need another Katrina or Rita or even a significant tropical storm. These people have had enough of this stuff.

Now about the storm. The latest GFDL model run has it coming ashore as a tropical storm/depression with the strongest winds at about 45kts. This model run has it nearing hurricane strength when it is still well off-shore. I hope that the model run remain consitent in the intensity of this system and that it does not intensify much. BAMM, BAMD, and LBAR have the system making landfall aproximately at 8:00 AM Saturday morning with a spread from the central Florida panhandle to the Mississippi Gulf Coast.
 
Well, tropical or not, we need the rain. Obviously we (yes, we, I live here too) dont want a significant storm to affect the area, but we can't prevent it .
 
Hell yeah Clark, finally, another fellow AG on the board. I might head over to Panama City Beach for my weekend off and record the waves and whatever happens there. Couple of tornadoes dropped in Lake County, is that county cursed?! Excellent banding squalls have pounded Metro JAX in the past 3 hours, and I'm here in Mayport watching evil lightning just 5 miles off the cost.
 
Good day everyone,

NHC still has "No tropical cyclones at this time" and not saying much about significant development.

Also, remember that tornadoes (Lake County) mean theres lots of shear.

For a tropical system, shear is bad, for tornadoes, it's good ... The storm looks like a hybrid / mid lattitude cyclone now, big dry slot and all that.

Unless you are after a very slight (SPC "see text") tornadoes and 30 MPH winds - Chasing this might be a disappointing waste of time.

Or it can pull a "Humberto", treating those lucky enough to get into position to a hurricane ;-)

Spoiled in 2004-2005, this season has really got me tropical-SDS'd.

Chris Collura - KG4PJN
 
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