Tropical Depression Ten (10)

[HAltschule]

Stuart,

Settlement Point is actaully a C-Man station and not a Buoy. For what it's worth, a Buoy would be floating in the water and it would look a lot different. The picture on the info. page for that site shows a secure land/coastline station.

If you look at observations at the surface ASOS's and on the buoys all the way up to the JAX, FL area, winds are commonly gusting to 25-40mph. BUOY's off the NE Florida coast are also reported wave heights to around 8 feet also. I agree it is close to a sub-tropical or tropical depression or storm status now. I think NHC is just waiting to find some clear sign of a close circulation. A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for tomorrow afternoon so we will earn more then.

 

[Justin E. Reed]

We're so screwed here in JAX. We've had anywhere from. .10in of rain at the Int'l Airport, to 8in at the beaches. I'm sure if you all go to jackosnville.com you'll be quite surprised at the pictures. We can't take anymore rain, but if it brings sustained tropical storm here, HELL YEAH!

 

[Justin E. Reed]

NAFC Oceana has put out a TCFA for this system.

 

[B Ozanne]

NAFC Oceana has put out a TCFA for this system.

Texas Cattle Feeder's Association?
The Chinese Finance Association?
Technical College Foundation Association?
Tioga County Firemen's Association?

Oh, wait its the Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert. Sorry about the confusion.

 

[Gene Moore]

weak surface circulation in south Florida

Surface wind field analysis shows a 29.77 low over far south Florida this afternoon. "If" this becomes the main surface system associated with this low aloft (TUT system) it will be further south than the models forecast. Current runs depict developing surface low much further north and skiming the rim of the gulf toward Mississippi. If this becomes the surface low it would have more time to develop tropical characteristics.

 

[Blake Michaleski]

Texas Cattle Feeder's Association?
The Chinese Finance Association?
Technical College Foundation Association?
Tioga County Firemen's Association?

Oh, wait its the Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert. Sorry about the confusion.

Here's the text on that.

WTNT01 KNGU 191200Z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 191200Z SEP 07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.7N 82.0W TO 27.6N 85.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SYNOPTIC DATA
AT 191200Z INDICATES THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 26.8N 80.0W OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OF WEST PALM
BEACH, FL. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS. NEARBY STATIONS HAVE REPORTED A 3 MB DECREASE IN PRESSURE
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION MOVES ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, EXPECT THE PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DEEPEN IN THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
2. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 201200Z.

There is a recent convective blowup near the UL Low center. Through latent heat release, I would expect to see some height rises near this convective cluster should it persist. This would also allow for a rapid reformation of a LLC on teh west side of the peninsula of more tropical characteristics.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Convection is building heartily tonight near and around the ULL center in the SE Gulf, W of Naples. Very interesting development. I think this will be the dominant feature moving into tomorrow-- not the low that moved ashore over FL near Cape Canaveral today.

I should point out that the ULL center is way further S than the initialization points for the 00Z model runs-- so if that feature starts to transition to a warm-core, surface low, I wonder how that will affect future runs.

 

[Blake Michaleski]

It's going to move the timeline up a bit i would think for one. We've (folks here at school) have been talking about how the model initialization was way to far to the NE. The Convective blowup near the ULL center is being very persistent.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

It's going to move the timeline up a bit i would think for one. We've (folks here at school) have been talking about how the model initialization was way to far to the NE. The Convective blowup near the ULL center is being very persistent.

Yeah, totally. Those 00Z model runs-- initializing near the C FL coast-- will be a moot point if the primary surface low develops under the ULL. I'd have to assume it would be a whole new ball game with such a different initialization point.

 

[Jim Leonard]

Since late Wednesday there has been indicatons that a surface low is developing around 26N and about 83W over the SE GOM. If this trend continues this will give a much better opportunity for development for one reason, the system will have more time over water also there is more time for the shear to decrease and for an outflow pattern to develope aloft.

 

[Justin E. Reed]

The bad news, almost all models take it right to Biloxi and New Orleans! I got friends in weather school at Keesler, lol. But a bright side, if anything, its hitting an area that needs rain, and if it gets strong, its hitting an area already knocked to its knees.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Surface low is alive and well and is about 50 miles or so WSW to W of Tampa, FL ... The extended Base Reflectivity loop of TBW's site shows it well.

ANY blow-up or wrap-around of convection will be a harbinger of strengthening. The winds aloft are increasingly becoming more favorable and the system is losing it's "hybrid / subtropical look" (dry slot it had yesterday) and becoming "rounder" and clustered around the developing LLC.

The ETA and GFS have the storm over the W FL panhandle area on Sunday morning as a ~1006 to 1008 MB low. The intensity on such a model, especially with a tropical cyclone, means absolutely NOTHING. I am just focusing on the TRACK, which the GFS has been pretty good at this year so far.

Once a TC does form, a slow NW motion should develop, with at least 48 hours of "time over water" for it to develop, especially at night, when cloud tops cool more.

Also rather strange that I do not a a "tropical disturbance statement" from NHC yet?

 

[Blake Michaleski]

The bad news, almost all models take it right to Biloxi and New Orleans! I got friends in weather school at Keesler, lol. But a bright side, if anything, its hitting an area that needs rain, and if it gets strong, its hitting an area already knocked to its knees.

Yeah take a look at my location... Biloxi is an hour from here, looks like yet another backyard tropical chase. Biloxi is really recovering well form Katrina. There are alot of empty slabs with for sale signs but day to day life is pretty much back to normal minus all teh construction and the lack of the Biloxi/Ocean Springs Bridge. I'd hate to see a strong storm come onshore in this region. But if it does, I'll be there.

 

[Brett Adair]

Depending on track, I may be down there with you guys Blake. I know a crew from USA (Randy, Matt, Daniel, Justin, etc.) that chase so it may be my turn to deply on tropical duty.

 

[Blake Michaleski]

Yeah I just talked to Justin...

Randy wants to chase outter band tornadoes... he's the one with the RM Young, I'd like to have him in any potential eyewall datalogging.

It's getting pretty crazy around here right now. people making plans...


All I have to do is gas up and grab the camera and laptop, everything else is in the truck.