Tropical Atlantic becoming active

[Jim Leonard]

It is very unusual to see such strong wave in the deep tropical Atlantic this early in the season. Near 9N and 37W there is an active tropical system with impressive structure. This is one more sign of an active Cape Verde season ahead this year. It is very rare to see a tropical disturbance this strong in early June, this is more like an August system.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/vis-l.jpg

 

[Marcus Opitz]

I wonder if the large high pressue system that normally dominates the summer atlantic is already taking root. Do the upper air patterns of late verify this?

 

[Jim Leonard]

I wonder if the large high pressue system that normally dominates the summer atlantic is already taking root. Do the upper air patterns of late verify this?
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The surface high, the Azores, Bermuda high which usually dominates the atlantic during the summer is pretty much setting up on schedule this year. The favorable pattern for tropical cyclone formation I spoke of deals with the 200mb level, approx. 38000 ft. is unusually favorable for this early in the season south of latitude 20N. The flow at that level is either very light or even easterly. Many years in the past especially before 1995 we were seeing strong westerly winds in this region even well into July.