The hypercane Possibility

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Simon Timm

A hypercane, for those who do not know, is a theoretical super hurricane which has wind speeds over 500 mph, and spanning over thousands of miles. Some notable scientists suggest that it was a hypercane that caused the Cretaceous–Tertiary extinction event(due to warming of the oceans either by an impact event, or extreme volcanism).
Is a "hypercane" possible? Are the recent events in nature, creating favorable conditions for these monsters to occur? What kind of damage would they capable of producing?
 
IF it was possible, we sure as heck wouldn't be around to see it. Ocean temps required for that type of storm would be over 120F according to wiki.

Simon- judging from the threads you've started in the month you've been an ST member (Most buildings ever destroyed by a tornado, Worst Case Tornado Scenario, Hypercane) you seem to have a penchant for the destructive force and human impact of nature. Just out of curiousity, is this what drew you to weather and this forum? I think you'll find that most of the members here will agree with me that the destruction is the only thing I hate about what we do.
 
From Wikipedia:
Other scientists have theorized that the system, compared to a normal hurricane, would be considerably smaller, about 10 miles in diameter. This would be more comparable to a tornado, which has been recorded at up to about 2.5 miles.[6]

What? So under these extreme conditions the tropical cyclone would actually tighten up? That doesn't make sense, and where is the citation? That article needs some work. A 10 mile wide, 700mb tropical cyclone would be a fun storm to chase though. I imagine you'd get a massive tornado outbreak from the outer rainbands.
 
Destruction

I guess I have been posting a little bit to much on destruction :o
I just needed to get a couple questions off my chest that could not be answered in any other forum, and this is certainly not why I joined stormtrack. Stormtrack is a wonderful way to for stormchasers to together and discuss their storm chasing and weather watching experience. December is not usually the most active tornado month, so I had to pass the time somehow, but know that you mention it, I will try to stop posting these threads
 
Hypercanes probably would not have happened with the KT boundary; the thermal pulse after the impact would not have lasted long enough and the global cooling from the nuclear winter effect probably set in within a few weeks following the impact.

Now hypercanes in the late Permian or with the PT extinction could be a different story. Nasty global warming at that time combining massive CO2 output from the Siberian Traps, plus already high CO2 levels, plus methane release as the traps were implaced into coal deposits in Siberia and China. Models of the SSTs show that temperatures could have reached 60 C (or 140 F), but since Pangea was still pretty much in one piece, atmospheric circulation patterns may not have been favorable (big monsoonal circulation).

We mentioned hypercanes to our prof in my paleoclimate class...she just grinned and pretty much didn't comment.
 
Simon- judging from the threads you've started in the month you've been an ST member (Most buildings ever destroyed by a tornado, Worst Case Tornado Scenario, Hypercane) you seem to have a penchant for the destructive force and human impact of nature. Just out of curiousity, is this what drew you to weather and this forum? I think you'll find that most of the members here will agree with me that the destruction is the only thing I hate about what we do.

Okay...being a rookie member to this forum, I don't feel like I have the clout to say this yet, but I've got to wonder why this is such a big deal for you. Being a Firefighter and chaser for over ten years, I COMPLETELY and TOTALLY agree with you; the damage and human impact is the most terrible thing about what we do. Nobody likes to see it and nobody enjoys it. But it's the terrible reality of the interest that we choose to invest ourselves in. So, to Simon's defense, what does it matter that we discuss it? Is this not the forum to discuss things like this; amongst others that have similar interests and can offer intelligent responses to a niche group that the average Joe doesn't know or want to talk about? True, it may be morbid, and maybe a little over the top to some of you, but you also have the ability NOT to participate in the discussion if it strikes a cord with you. By no means am I judging you, so please don't think this is a personal attack. I've just seen comments like this start a volley that gets out of hand in other forums and all of the sudden the big 'ol lock comes down and that's never good for anyone. Plus, as Simon says, (I know...that was bad...I just came back from an 80s party) the off season is slow and he has generated some discussion that others in this forum have actively participated in.

So, to Simon-
Continue to do what you're doing if it pleases you. No big deal to me, and really no big deal to anyone else here, that's what the forum is for.

And to Chad-
Again, this is no where near a personal attack and please don't take it as such. I just don't think it's necessary to stifle someone's interest in participating in this forum

<Soap box mode off>
Thanks!
 
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Also, it's always interesting to know just what the limits of storms are, and how theoretically those limits could be surpassed. One of the reasons storms on other planets are interesting as well (Saturn, Jupiter, etc.) Also, there is something satisfying knowing about how meterological potential gets fulfilled: little Charlie the cumulus cloud wants to grow up to be the big bad tornado-warned Cumulonimbus Incus. Maybe that could be a children's book. Helga the Tropical Wave who gets to become Helga the Hypercane.
 
Helga - as in Helga Fugley ('the Oblongs') that has a white mouse that she calls "Mitzi" that hides in her back body fat?!?
That would be a good name for a Hypercane.

Along a very similar line and all kidding aside, I read about the F-scale for tornadoes by Dr Fujita, and that the rated possible speed (it was a graph actually) range at the top end was the speed of sound - approx 660 mph (but changes w/humidity, altitude, and temp). He wasn't saying that it was likely or possible, he just used it as a reference to show relative wind speeds. You know, to give it scale. I wonder what the dynamics would be of such a storm would have to be that could possibly make that real? Or if such a thing is possible on land - with all of the best conditions present.

Of course, surface friction would take a big bite, and the slightest change of low/mi/high sheer would take it down a notch or three. Everything would need to be optimal; but what does that imply? We often refer to the ground speed of wind along the surface as the damage wrought by a twister; but the wind speed at its fastest point between ground and base has to be faster than at the surface. I wonder if there has ever been a model made that would include the best circumstances, and what the data would look like. Sounds like something a Met student would play with if he/she had access the schools software/computer just to see what would have to take place. Consider that the 5/3/99 Moore OK EF-5 was a whopping 318 mph (slightly slower than 1/2 the speed of sound) wind damage - or was that the speed well above ground? Is that the known limit? The hypercane has a theoreticel top speed - what about the twister?
Just a thought...
 
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Good day all,

Hypercanes are a highly theoretical type of hurricane that was never observed (fortunately) and can be only assumed / modeled at this time.

They differ highly from tornadoes, just like regular hurricanes do, but both have an eyewall and similar vortex structure (just the size and dynamics are different). Hurricanes (and hypercanes) need a low shear environment to develop, while all tornadoes depend on high shear and a different heating / triggering mechanism.

Basically, a hypercane, if one was to form, will be about the normal size of a regular hurricane. The CORE flow of the hypercane, however, will be much more intense (and tighter) than the eye and eyewall of a regular hurricane. From space, it would look like an intense hurricane, most likely exhibiting a "pinhole" type eye (like Wilma in 2005, or Forrest in the Pacific in 1983).

Basically, what you would have is a "normal" hurricane until one procedes to the inner core of the system. From the edge of the storm, you'll have a tropical storm forced wind envelope (roughly a few hunderd miles wide over 37 MPH) surrounding an area of hurricane forced winds (about 100 miles wide over 73 MPH).

However, within the hurricane-forced wind envelope, there would be a very small eye and eye-wall, about 10 miles wide, with a 2.5 mile wide eye and cloud tops (hot towers) reaching over 100,000 feet (20 miles)! This is where the pressure would fall from about 950 MB to 700 MB in a 5-mile wide "band" with the accompanying winds going from about 100 MPH (outside this eyewall) to 300-500 MPH inside (just before the calm, and very small eye).

Structuarally, this eyewall and eye will be similar in many ways to a large tornado, such as the 2.5 mile wide Hallam storm in 2004, or Greensburg in 2007. It is much higher and wider (10 miles total) and embedded within the outer (and weaker) winds. The eye basically will be a "tube" and clear, proportionally having the dimensions of the cardboard insert of a roll of paper towels vertically.

Most of the thermal energy should be exchanged in this core feature. 120 degree SST's and up would have an incredible amount of energy and result in the low pressures (700 MB, or about 10,000 feet of the lower atmosphere simply "gone" due to the low pressure) and the violent winds.

Expectingly, anything, or anyone unlucky enough to be chasing and / or in the path of such a storm coming ashore would be ripped to shreds and / or scoured away to bare ground. 500 MPH has about 9 times the kinetic energy of a 150-200 MPH wind. This would be like sticking your hand into the slipstream of a commercial jet at speed near sea level. Any small airborne debris, even sand and pebbles, will have the same kinetic energy as a bullet from a .38 or 9mm at such speeds, let alone a car or cinderblock at 500 MPH.

Suprisingly, one such a storm comes ashore, and is cut off from the hot water, the storm will instantly lose its viloent core, then suffer the same dying fate as most (normal) hurricanes do over land.

Also, if the hurricane moves away from the oceanic hot spot of 120+ degree F water, the inner core would also loosen up and weaken. If the cooler water around the hor spot (created by a volcano or impact) is over 80 degrees F, then the hypercane should weaken to a regular hurricane, with a 20-30 mile wide eye and winds 75 to 150 MPH (depending on heat content, shear, etc).

If the storm moves off the hot spot and into cool waters (below 80 degrees), then the hypercane will weaken to a hurricane, then TS, then weaken altogether. Like any normal hurricane, any vertical shear / dry air entrainment also will weaken a hypercane. Convection still needs to remain vertically stacked to support it as it is being heated from the underlying sea surface (Ocean Air Interface). A highly sheared tropical system over a 120+ degree F hot spot may not become a hurricane, but a tropical area of disturbed weather / trough with thunderstorms feeding off the extreme heat content of un-precidented intensity.

Having a situation where the entire ocean (or large portion of it) has been heated to the hypercane threshold (such as 120+ deg F), then larger and longer lasting hypercanes would be common place.

Basically, a hypercane is driven by the SAME thermal forces as a normal hurricane is. It is simply the higher equillibrium (top speed) of the winds related to the extra heat available for energy transfer. This is the same reason why a race car reaches 250 MPH when your family car of similar weight only reaches 120 MPH = Both are cars, just one has a lot more power (horsepower) and higher equilibrium (top speed).

One other thought is the ASSUMED structure of a hypercane. We all (and literature) assume a hypercane will be a tight system and with a very small and high-velocity core. This is being based on that most violent hurricanes and typhoons have a small pin-hole eye (like Wilma in 2005 at 190 MPH). What about an annular hypercane. This should be possible to consider as well. Imagine a 100-mile wide wind field of 350 MPH winds?

A hypercane also will have very strange effects on the atmosphere. The small and violent core will also lift salt water high into the atmosphere (like a regular hurricane does) but due to its high "hot towers" near its core to 20 miles, salt and sea spray will be "injected" into the lower stratosphere. Particularly, sodium chloride and other salts will be photo-degraded by sunlight and UV at these altitudes, yielding chlorine and other ozone-depleting chemicals.

My two-cent's worth...
 
Several years ago when I looked at this subject it seemed that all the research was a one-man show by Kerry Emanuel. I don't know if that indicates he's a pioneer on the cutting edge or if he's on shaky ground with this research area.

Anyhow here's his homepage -- there may be more on this subject here.
http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/home.html

Tim
 
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