The Evolving Role of Humans in Weather Prediction and Communication. by Neil Stuart et. al.

[John Farley]

The Evolving Role of Humans in Weather Prediction and Communication in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 103 Issue 8 (2022) (ametsoc.org)

 

[Mike Smith]

We get one of these articles about current and future forecasting techniques every ten years and they are largely written by people who do not (and, in some cases never have) make real time forecasts.

The premise of these articles are often incorrect: the last 10-20 years or so have produced little or no improvement in forecast quality (see graph) and, in the case of tornado warnings, the NWS has regressed the past decade, see: National Weather Service Versus Tornadoes: Playing Defense

 

[Warren Faidley]

Very true. I was thinking about this very subject a few days ago. You have many expereinced forecasters / chasers who know a lot more about this subject because they have have lived through the evolution of warning technology.

 

[John Farley]

Just as an FYI, I posted the link because I think it is important for forecasters to be paying attention to the human/social science factors involved in communication of and reaction to weather forecasts and warnings. Regardless of whether forecasts are getting better or not, and regardless of how automated forecasts and warnings become, it remains true that how the public uses and responds to weather information depends on how that information is communicated and how people receive, understand, and respond to that information. So even if the premise that forecasts are getting better is wrong, the point about the human factors is important, and I think it is a good thing that it is getting more attention.