Kori Winstead
EF0
These are the current 500 mb height anomalies all the way up through May 8 (from May 1). According to Gray and Klotzbach, there is a medium positive correlation of springtime ridge/trough patterns in this area persisting through the summer. I can dig up the publication if you guys want. That trough over northern Canada is very favorable for Gulf Coast landfalls, and the ridge is in a very ominous position. The correlation is not absolute, and I've seen it bust more than a few times (most recently in 2010, where early season ridging gave way to troughing during peak season), but it'll be interesting to see if things end up working out this way. If they do, I think we'll see a few more storms than is currently being forecast by most agencies because the ridge axis being in that position will promote upper-level easterlies over the western Atlantic, as opposed to westerlies that would normally be found with a trough in the same position.
Thoughts, anyone?
Thoughts, anyone?
