Tony Laubach
EF5
I'd head for Guymon, OK... good place to be in this situation, I would think...
Virtual Chase Case
- Thread starter Jason_Politte
- Start date
Jeff Snyder
EF5
It's a really difficult call without visible satellite... We can only assume that there is widespread low cloud-cover (a soupy muck) in central, northern, and western Texas, though this may be deceptive given the relative lack of observations for such a huge area. I like the northwestern OK panhandle and southeastern CO IF there indeed is widespread cloudcover in TX. If there is some clearing going on, which there very well may be given the ridging working into the area ahead of the upper-level trough in the western U.S. So, with this said, I'd target somehwere near Childress, TX.
Edward Ballou
EF4
Perryton, TX
Inclination is to head SSW, but we shall see.
Inclination is to head SSW, but we shall see.
Kurt Silvey
EF4
Since Lamar and La Junta are already staked out, I'd have to go to Toonerville, Co. The road structure stinks, but you can see for miles.
Verne Carlson
EF5
Virtual chaser convergences are allowed as long as you pull well off the road and don't block traffic.
Khristian Snyder
EF3
so do we get the answer????!!!
Jason_Politte
EF2
so do we get the answer????!!!
Thanks to all who participated. My apologies for not getting the solution posted earlier tonight, but as promised, here it is:
This day, May 28, 2001, was a classic example of why simply chasing the SPC risk areas will not always pay off. Those chasers who eyed the upslope flow and 50+ dewpoints along the Colorado front range scored big today.
The mid-level shortwave ridge kept significant convective development across the moderate risk area to a minimum while the upslope flow regime along the front range in northeast New Mexico and Colorado led to the development of two tornadic supercells - the most significant of these being the Ellicott, CO tornadic supercell. If I remember correctly, only one chaser observed this event, but I'm not aware of who it was or whether or not any images of this event are online. More information regarding this event can be found at:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pub/elcodmgsvy.html
The other area of significant convective development was near the Raton, NM/Trinidad, CO area. A few chasers were in this area and documented the event. Four supercells formed over this area and trained off the front range before eventually dying as they moved into the Colorado Plains.
The first supercell formed at ~3:30 p.m. MDT and was rather marginal in appearance but left much small hail in it's wake. The second supercell was a nicely striated LP.
LP Supercell near Trinidad, CO (Scott Blair)
Base Refelctivity Image 6:14 p.m. MDT
Once the LP moved off the mountains and dissipated, the third supercell developed and took on HP characteristics as it produced a large wall cloud, which eventually became wrapped in rain and hail.
Mothership supercell wrapping precip. around the wall cloud (Chris Kridler)
Base refelctivity Image 7:30 p.m. MDT
As the third storm fell apart, the fourth supercell moved off the mountains at dusk, this one taking on a more classic appearance. The cell produced a large, low-hanging wall cloud, which went on to produce a tornado 1 mile east southeast of Hoehne, CO at 8:31 p.m. MDT. The tornado was fairly weak but did do $5000 worth of damage to a garage.
Wall Cloud with fourth supercell (Dave Lewison)
Tornado produced by the supercell (Dave Lewison)
Base Reflectivity Image 8:31 p.m. MDT
While the moderate risk area busted, one severe storm did develop near Midland, TX and produced hail up to 1.75".
Chase accounts from this day:
Scott Blair
Dave Lewison
Chris Kridler
Bobby Eddins
Sam Barricklow
Jason_Politte
EF2
I guess Google ended up being the most useful forecast tool for this past event.
Jason
Robert Dewey
EF5
While I didn't use Google, there were several things that tended to give it away...
First, I was actually drawn to CO, since OK and TX looked like crap... Northerly winds and decreasing T's/Td's between 12Z and 15Z just don't sit well with me... And SFC obs did indicate quite a bit of clouds. The SPC outlook looked like crap, I knew for sure the MDT risk wasn't going to verifiy, so that went out the window.
I then noticed the southerly winds in CO, and increasing Td's, which made me wonder. Then, moving on up, 925-850mb did show some nice moisture streaming into that area... The setup at 700mb showed the shortwave over CA nicely, which would probably be the trigger for ANY sort of convection that day. Temperatures at 700mb also seemed like it would decrease through the day, given the orientation. So, I had CO stuck in the back of my head.
I then thought about central TX, where Td's were actually climbing, as well as temps. Then, I had second thoughts, as the shortwave in CA was much too far away to produce convection in TX for the time being, and that weak front/boundary didn't appear as though it would be enough to break the CAP...
Then, I so coincidentally noticed that one of the SFC maps was centered on Denver, so then I knew the risk must have been near CO... So, I picked the southeast section.
But, that setup REALLY sucked... I still can't believe that a MDT risk was in effect with that kind of a setup. Heck, I know I wouldn't have chased that day even if I was located in OK...
Glen Romine
EF5
Verne posted La Junta as a target - googled to see where it was - and there was your name in the search list with your chase account for this event. Obviously I made my forecast before finding this - and didn't modify my synopsis afterward. Your implication that I "googled up" my forecast isn't appreciated - but some common sense would dictate that a case is far less anonymous when you have chase logs to it on your web site. Next time perhaps pick an event to which you are not personally tied.
Glen
David Wolfson
EF5
... and I saw Glen's post of the date before he edited it out, after I'd done my guesstiforcast.
Again, my compliments, Jason, for starting this thread and preparing the case(s)!
Again, my compliments, Jason, for starting this thread and preparing the case(s)!
Jason_Politte
EF2
Thanks for posting your reasoning Robert - I enjoyed reading it and am glad you were able to pick up on a couple of the hints included to indicate this would be a front range day. I felt the 15z obs were necessary to also show the upslope flow occurring along the Colorado front range in contrast with 12z obs.
The Google comment was intended only toward the person I quoted. I hope neither you nor anyone else thought otherwise.
Thank you for participating David. I hope you and everyone else found this case both entertaining and educational.
Not my idea but merely a continuation of an idea modeled after the chase cases Tim Vasquez posted during the early days of this forum and those found in the Tornado Forecasters Workbook by Tim Marshall and Tim Vasquez.
Thanks for the correction regarding the number of chasers on the Ellicott supercell and for passing along the additional information about the event. I enjoyed reading your chase account of the day, and those pics of the Haxtun supercell are absolutely stunning. Ian has some great shots from the Trinidad event as well. Another chaser who witnessed the Trinidad tornado was Mike Umscheid, but I could no longer find his account from the day on his site.
Jason
Jason_Politte
EF2
Your search was a bit more investigative than that. Neither my name nor my chase account appears within the first 100 hits for either La Junta or the actual search terms you used. It wasn’t even my chase account that you posted.
You did indeed make a forecast before actively seeking out what event this case was. After removing the link to the posted chase account, you stated that you knew what day this case was and amended your forecast with:
That’s fine that you were eager to figure out which day this was. I'm curious myself when faced with these types of cases, but I certainly don't go seeking out which event the case represents if I plan to actively participate. If your true intent was to merely find out what day this was, all you had to do was send me a pm and ask instead of posting it to the forum.
Also, it shouldn’t matter whether or not I'm connected with the event. I chose this event because it was a difficult forecast and a good example of why not to necessarily base one’s target on SPC risk areas. The data, none of which appears anywhere on my site BTW, was presented in order to make a forecast. To say with assurance that you knew what day this was, you certainly must have compared the data presented in the case with known data from May 28, 2001.
Anyway, none of this really makes any difference, and this is my final statement in this thread regarding the matter. If you wish to continue discussing this, please feel free to contact me privately. Thank you.
Jason
Jason_Politte
EF2
Look forward to playing along next game!
Excellent! With severe weather season getting into full swing, I'll probably wait until after the season winds down to post anymore. Should be a good diversion to ease the SDS.
And of course, you are quite welcome for the well-deserved compliments.Jason
