Virtual Chase Case

[Glen Romine]

Ok, I know what case this is. Suppose I shouldn't ruin it for everyone else still guessing. Edited to remove the date.

I guess Google ended up being the most useful forecast tool for this past event.

Jason

Verne posted La Junta as a target - googled to see where it was - and there was your name in the search list with your chase account for this event. Obviously I made my forecast before finding this - and didn't modify my synopsis afterward. Your implication that I "googled up" my forecast isn't appreciated - but some common sense would dictate that a case is far less anonymous when you have chase logs to it on your web site. Next time perhaps pick an event to which you are not personally tied.

Glen

 

[David Wolfson]

... and I saw Glen's post of the date before he edited it out, after I'd done my guesstiforcast.

Again, my compliments, Jason, for starting this thread and preparing the case(s)!

 

[Jason_Politte]

While I didn't use Google, there were several things that tended to give it away...

Thanks for posting your reasoning Robert - I enjoyed reading it and am glad you were able to pick up on a couple of the hints included to indicate this would be a front range day. I felt the 15z obs were necessary to also show the upslope flow occurring along the Colorado front range in contrast with 12z obs.

The Google comment was intended only toward the person I quoted. I hope neither you nor anyone else thought otherwise.

Again, my compliments, Jason, for starting this thread and preparing the case(s)!

Thank you for participating David. I hope you and everyone else found this case both entertaining and educational.

Unfortunately I didn't see this thread until it was RIGHT NOW (great idea though !), but I should mention there were several chasers on the Ellicott storm.

Not my idea but merely a continuation of an idea modeled after the chase cases Tim Vasquez posted during the early days of this forum and those found in the Tornado Forecasters Workbook by Tim Marshall and Tim Vasquez.

Thanks for the correction regarding the number of chasers on the Ellicott supercell and for passing along the additional information about the event. I enjoyed reading your chase account of the day, and those pics of the Haxtun supercell are absolutely stunning. Ian has some great shots from the Trinidad event as well. Another chaser who witnessed the Trinidad tornado was Mike Umscheid, but I could no longer find his account from the day on his site.

Jason

 

[Jason_Politte]

Verne posted La Junta as a target - googled to see where it was - and there was your name in the search list with your chase account for this event.

Your search was a bit more investigative than that. Neither my name nor my chase account appears within the first 100 hits for either La Junta or the actual search terms you used. It wasn’t even my chase account that you posted.

Obviously I made my forecast before finding this - and didn't modify my synopsis afterward. Your implication that I "googled up" my forecast isn't appreciated - but some common sense would dictate that a case is far less anonymous when you have chase logs to it on your web site. Next time perhaps pick an event to which you are not personally tied.

You did indeed make a forecast before actively seeking out what event this case was. After removing the link to the posted chase account, you stated that you knew what day this case was and amended your forecast with:

I could see some potential in se CO - certainly the cap is breakable there and there is some support for better wind fields later in the day.

That’s fine that you were eager to figure out which day this was. I'm curious myself when faced with these types of cases, but I certainly don't go seeking out which event the case represents if I plan to actively participate. If your true intent was to merely find out what day this was, all you had to do was send me a pm and ask instead of posting it to the forum.

Also, it shouldn’t matter whether or not I'm connected with the event. I chose this event because it was a difficult forecast and a good example of why not to necessarily base one’s target on SPC risk areas. The data, none of which appears anywhere on my site BTW, was presented in order to make a forecast. To say with assurance that you knew what day this was, you certainly must have compared the data presented in the case with known data from May 28, 2001.

Anyway, none of this really makes any difference, and this is my final statement in this thread regarding the matter. If you wish to continue discussing this, please feel free to contact me privately. Thank you.

Jason

 

[Jason_Politte]

Look forward to playing along next game! (and hopefully speaking for Ian, and definitely myself, thanks for the nice words)

Excellent! With severe weather season getting into full swing, I'll probably wait until after the season winds down to post anymore. Should be a good diversion to ease the SDS. And of course, you are quite welcome for the well-deserved compliments.

Jason

 

[Cstok]

Thanks Jason. I love these case studies.... shows me how weak my forecasting abilities actually are!!

I learn more after the answer is announced, because then I can go back, look things over again, and try to figure out why / how I missed some critial points.

Thanks again!

MORE MORE!!