Andrew Pritchard
EF5
Been frustrating to watch the Southern High Plains go on a heater lately with subtle jet stream disturbance days that are nice if you live nearby or are out for an extended period of storm chasing while waiting idly by from the Midwest into the Northern Plains. I always regret sitting these periods out down there, but driving to the New Mexico/Texas border in June for subtle little 2-5% tornado days in the desert (that sometimes go BIG!) is about as enticing as it is for folks in Norman, OK to drive 10 hours to central Illinois in June to sit and babysit an outflow boundary (that sometimes go BIG!).
Looks like a bit of ridging builds into the Central U.S. this week which will mute severe weather potential some and allow for a pattern reset. The June 15-20 time frame (and beyond?) is starting to stand out as potentially active from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes/Midwest.
There may be some early potential June 11-14 across the Northern High Plains into the Dakotas/Upper Midwest but a slow-moving cut-off low migrating from the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley will probably stunt moisture return during this early period leaving things a little uncertain. June 15 and beyond however, it does appear we'll open the Gulf with a deep fetch of moisture into the Northern Plains accompanied by an active storm track rolling over the top of the ridge.
At base, looks like an active period for storm clusters and mesoscale-driven severe weather days (i.e. finally folks who live in Texas can debate whether they want to drive 10 hours north for an MCV and outflow boundary or not) but there's been some hints in global deterministic and ensemble models that one or two significant severe weather days could loom during this period if we get a bigger wave to eject. Way out there, but really seems like there's a signal for a bigger Dakotas - Upper Midwest severe weather day around June 18-19.
I wrote a bit more in a new blog post over here: SKYDRAMA.NET • Northern Plains - Midwest: Pattern Shift Could Open the Door to Repeated Severe Weather Mid-June

Looks like a bit of ridging builds into the Central U.S. this week which will mute severe weather potential some and allow for a pattern reset. The June 15-20 time frame (and beyond?) is starting to stand out as potentially active from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes/Midwest.
There may be some early potential June 11-14 across the Northern High Plains into the Dakotas/Upper Midwest but a slow-moving cut-off low migrating from the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley will probably stunt moisture return during this early period leaving things a little uncertain. June 15 and beyond however, it does appear we'll open the Gulf with a deep fetch of moisture into the Northern Plains accompanied by an active storm track rolling over the top of the ridge.
At base, looks like an active period for storm clusters and mesoscale-driven severe weather days (i.e. finally folks who live in Texas can debate whether they want to drive 10 hours north for an MCV and outflow boundary or not) but there's been some hints in global deterministic and ensemble models that one or two significant severe weather days could loom during this period if we get a bigger wave to eject. Way out there, but really seems like there's a signal for a bigger Dakotas - Upper Midwest severe weather day around June 18-19.
I wrote a bit more in a new blog post over here: SKYDRAMA.NET • Northern Plains - Midwest: Pattern Shift Could Open the Door to Repeated Severe Weather Mid-June
