State of the Chase Season 2025

[Jason N]

If you ask me, there's been enough consistency in the globals from the 4th-7th, covering Odessa to Lubbock and surrounding areas from NM Border east to West of Childress, that could be in play. It's not a slam dunk, but using Warren's terminology of 'sneek attacks', with maybe 1 out of those 3 days (the 5th I think), being potentially productive with the natural caveats of cloud debris, moisture, LLJ, boundary locations, and whatever DL surges any existing Caps present themselves.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Likely deploying on Saturday. Initial target will be the Midland / SE NM regions on Sunday. Still a long way out, but just enough model consistency to suggest at least a 2-3 day event with decent shear and RH return. Both the GFS and ECMFW have T-soundings for one or more days. Could be a complex, day-by-day forecast, with a few MCS blobs thrown in for added PM lightning enjoyment. A stalled out, or slow moving low would be perfect. Would not be surprised to see a few landspouts with so many OFB's. Not sure how far north the action will reach, but I'm guessing it will be more of a cloud / flood / rain / lack of CAPE situation. All of this is a guess, but trending towards the positive.

 

[Harlan U]

I was initially quite worried about this season, but things seem to be going well at the moment and there appears to be hope for the rest of the season. I chase exclusively in Colorado so early season stuff (really anything before ~May 1 with regard to Colorado climatology) is of little concern to me personally. I'm banking on the climatologically likely activity in late May and throughout June. Colorado can also provide legitimate mesoscale days well through July and August.
The CFS precipitation anomaly forecast for this month was quite dry throughout much of March and early April, but has totally flipped to a wetter pattern across most of the southern plains and Colorado/New Mexico. This is good news for all of us in my opinion, but the moisture is especially needed here in Colorado and New Mexico after a fairly poor mountain snow season.

Low soil moisture and drought conditions remain entrenched across most of the southwest, and their removal seems unlikely. Eastern Colorado did have an above-average snow year (mainly thanks to that huge November snowstorm) and positive soil moisture anomalies linger in some areas. However, the rest of the winter after November was fairly dry and drought conditions aren't looking so good right now.


Another round of soaking rain is expected next week for the southern plains, notably across eastern New Mexico and Colorado. Models have been consistently showing widespread ~1" total QPF amounts for eastern Colorado and New Mexico for the 200-hour forecast period. There are some individual runs with ludicrous amounts of rain but we'll have to see about that.

I'm thinking that this next round of rain may have the potential to improve drought/soil moisture conditions across the EML source region and surrounding areas to the east, including my home region of eastern Colorado. I think that this kind of moisture can really only be a positive thing for the chase season. It's better than drought at any rate. Would appreciate any of your opinions on the matter.

 

[Hannah.Taylor]

Did the transition from La Niña to ENSO Neutral (El Niño Southern Oscillation) on April 10th, just kill our storm chase season?

It seemed like things were rocking and rolling and then from the 10th to present...it just fell flat on its face.

It's been an overall disappointing chase tour with my Dad.

0 funnels.
2 tornado sirens (Fairmont, MN & Valley Mills, TX)
1 tornado (Sudan, TX on Day 2).
2 missed tornadoes (Roswell, NM & Hynannis/Ashby, NE) due to dumb decision making.
Several wall clouds.
Multiple tornado warned storms (majority were radar indicated).
Structure on our storms has been terrible. Not one good photogenic supercell to photograph.
Insane cloud cover that refuses to burn off on almost a daily basis.
2 busts (Monday in MN, today in DFW metro).
3 MCS events
3 linear events
0 night cloud to ground lightning opportunities.
No mammatus.

I went back 30 years of reported tornado data and carefully handpicked April 24 - May 4th as our chase dates.

I expected at least a few wedges and some smaller tornadoes and good structure.

I feel so letdown and a little robbed.

Trying to be positive but my Dad doesn't have many years left due to heart problems. He may not be here this time next year.

I'm thankful for the time with him on this trip and glad I got to share his first tornado with him last week.

Just was hoping for so much more from this trip.

April 2025 ENSO update: La Niña has ended

After just a few months, La Niña conditions have ended and the tropical Pacific has returned to neutral conditions. Our blogger gives you the scoop on La Niña's end and the forecast for the rest of 2025.

www.climate.gov

 

[Mikayla Norris]

I was initially quite worried about this season, but things seem to be going well at the moment and there appears to be hope for the rest of the season. I chase exclusively in Colorado so early season stuff (really anything before ~May 1 with regard to Colorado climatology) is of little concern to me personally. I'm banking on the climatologically likely activity in late May and throughout June. Colorado can also provide legitimate mesoscale days well through July and August.
The CFS precipitation anomaly forecast for this month was quite dry throughout much of March and early April, but has totally flipped to a wetter pattern across most of the southern plains and Colorado/New Mexico. This is good news for all of us in my opinion, but the moisture is especially needed here in Colorado and New Mexico after a fairly poor mountain snow season.
View attachment 27231
Low soil moisture and drought conditions remain entrenched across most of the southwest, and their removal seems unlikely. Eastern Colorado did have an above-average snow year (mainly thanks to that huge November snowstorm) and positive soil moisture anomalies linger in some areas. However, the rest of the winter after November was fairly dry and drought conditions aren't looking so good right now.
View attachment 27232
View attachment 27233
Another round of soaking rain is expected next week for the southern plains, notably across eastern New Mexico and Colorado. Models have been consistently showing widespread ~1" total QPF amounts for eastern Colorado and New Mexico for the 200-hour forecast period. There are some individual runs with ludicrous amounts of rain but we'll have to see about that.
View attachment 27234
I'm thinking that this next round of rain may have the potential to improve drought/soil moisture conditions across the EML source region and surrounding areas to the east, including my home region of eastern Colorado. I think that this kind of moisture can really only be a positive thing for the chase season. It's better than drought at any rate. Would appreciate any of your opinions on the matter.

Looks like that additional rainfall is supposed to kick off tomorrow, 1 May, though it looks like it will be most impactful along the mountains/I25 corridor and down into southern parts of the state.

I've also been keeping an eye on Monday, 5 May for the last few days. The GFS and ECMWF have been showing consistent 500mb southerly to southeasterly winds wrapping around a pretty decent low and plenty of moisture in eastern CO with a dryline setting up just east of the I25 corridor. Yesterday morning (29 April) the NWS Pueblo area forecast discussion specifically called out the possibility for supercells with all hazards possible, and even hinted that the models may actually be under-forecasting the moisture and instability a bit, though they seemed to back off that wording some in subsequent discussions, instead favoring just a mention of possible severe storms. I'm still new to the patterns up here, so it was a good sanity check for me to see them mention what I had been thinking. I'll be curious to see what the midrange models have to say as we get closer. Regardless, more rain is always a good thing!

 

[John Farley]

I actually think the end of La Nina is a good thing, at least for this season. La Nina is terrible for moisture in the southern plains and the mountains west of there (which verified this past winter), but now that it is gone, precipitation seems to be returning to these areas and more is on the way over the next week or so. That ought to help provide more moisture in the southern plains through the course of May, so maybe the dryline will not be too far east most of the time like it was a lot last year. Already some signs of that the last week or two.

 

[JamesCaruso]

@Hannah.Taylor Sounds like you actually had a pretty active stretch and simply experienced the types of disappointments that are an unavoidable part of chasing. A disappointing chase is part of the game, and more interesting than no chasing at all. As for your father, I am quite certain he is not judging the trip from the same experienced perspective as you; he likely went into it with no particular expectations, as he had no prior chase experiences to compare to. For him it was a brand new adventure, he got to see his first tornado, and I’m sure his time with you was the most important part and all that really mattered to him. Try not to judge the “success” of the trip by traditional metrics and focus only on the valuable time with your father and how special and memorable it must have been to him.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

Well, basically, we missed all the tornadoes. On Matador day, we were north, but got one of the best stranger-structured storms (but gorgeous) I have ever seen up by Pampa, which made up for it. Then, we mostly missed the Sudan tornado; it was too far away. On the NE wedge-fest, busted in KS.
We were on the incredible HP supercell on Tuesday from Guthrie to Seymour. Then a bust yesterday near Waco. Headed back home, not impressed with the next closed low. We'll wait for mid-to-late May.

 

[Jason N]

Hannah Keep looking for the 4th to the 7th for some potential opportunities. I think there will be a decent, albeit short-lived, uptrend for this period. (right now, thinking Midland/Odessa/Pecos/Ft Stockton areas, North to Lubbock)

 

[Chris T.]

Will be on the road from the 6th to the 21st of May. Any thoughts or hope for that stretch? The models aren’t exactly fuelling a lot of confidence right now. Hug the dryline if the moisture manages to hang in there? Doesn't take much to keep a Brit happy.

 

[Jason N]

Will be on the road from the 6th to the 21st of May. Any thoughts or hope for that stretch? The models aren’t exactly fuelling a lot of confidence right now. Hug the dryline if the moisture manages to hang in there? Doesn't take much to keep a Brit happy.

Unfortunately, I think your first Half of the trip is just in between long wave pattern adjustments and you're kind of stuck at least until the 12th of May for some possible isolated stuff in CO, and then a pattern shift emerges with another wave after the 14th, if your plan is to chase across the lower/upper plains. Assuming the CFS is even slightly trustworthy, there could be some more potential in the latter part of your trip... but you basically are in a hold mode for that until the other Globals can pick up on that inside their windows.

I suggest some stops for sites in between, parks, restaurants, and chasing sunsets in odd places lol

 

[Warren Faidley]

If you want to believe the majority of models, it's going to be sleepy time weather after this cut-off enigma passes. The only glimmer of hope is after the 13th or so. Still looking at early next week, but the evolution of the cut-off is not as interesting in the latest guidance. Not sure I'd want to chase a one-day event with no options until the middle of May.

 

[Hannah.Taylor]

Hannah Keep looking for the 4th to the 7th for some potential opportunities. I think there will be a decent, albeit short-lived, uptrend for this period. (right now, thinking Midland/Odessa/Pecos/Ft Stockton areas, North to Lubbock)

Unfortunately I go back to work on the 5th.

I may try to get out Memorial Day Weekend if something pops in KS or NW Panhandle to Lubbock, W TX area.

 

[Mitch Drabenstott]

Will be on the road from the 6th to the 21st of May. Any thoughts or hope for that stretch? The models aren’t exactly fuelling a lot of confidence right now. Hug the dryline if the moisture manages to hang in there? Doesn't take much to keep a Brit happy.

First week of your trip looks pretty bleak, at least for supercells and tornado potential. You can probably hang around the Raton Mesa area and see some lightning and halfway decent structure for most of those days, but that’s about it. Maybe an impulse under the ridge will appear last minute and you’ll get a supercell, but I wouldn’t bet on that.

After that it looks like activity may pick up around 5/12-5/13 or so as troughing returns to the west. For how long, that’s uncertain at this time.

 

[Harlan U]

Looks like that additional rainfall is supposed to kick off tomorrow, 1 May, though it looks like it will be most impactful along the mountains/I25 corridor and down into southern parts of the state.

I've also been keeping an eye on Monday, 5 May for the last few days. The GFS and ECMWF have been showing consistent 500mb southerly to southeasterly winds wrapping around a pretty decent low and plenty of moisture in eastern CO with a dryline setting up just east of the I25 corridor. Yesterday morning (29 April) the NWS Pueblo area forecast discussion specifically called out the possibility for supercells with all hazards possible, and even hinted that the models may actually be under-forecasting the moisture and instability a bit, though they seemed to back off that wording some in subsequent discussions, instead favoring just a mention of possible severe storms. I'm still new to the patterns up here, so it was a good sanity check for me to see them mention what I had been thinking. I'll be curious to see what the midrange models have to say as we get closer. Regardless, more rain is always a good thing!

I'm keeping an eye on that too. NWS Boulder has mentioned similar things in their forecast discussions. Upper level support is good and these early season trough/cutoff low setups have definitely produced good storms in Colorado in the past. Model instability seems to be rather borderline, probably below acceptable margins in my opinion. Model dewpoints are the greatest across extreme southeastern Colorado. It looks like there could be some cloud cover over eastern Colorado that would limit instability. Surface temps also look to remain in the 60s. At the current moment, I'm definitely feeling more rain than convection. Maybe more details will be resolved when midrange models come into range.