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State of the Chase Season 2025

If you ask me, there's been enough consistency in the globals from the 4th-7th, covering Odessa to Lubbock and surrounding areas from NM Border east to West of Childress, that could be in play. It's not a slam dunk, but using Warren's terminology of 'sneek attacks', with maybe 1 out of those 3 days (the 5th I think), being potentially productive with the natural caveats of cloud debris, moisture, LLJ, boundary locations, and whatever DL surges any existing Caps present themselves.
 
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Likely deploying on Saturday. Initial target will be the Midland / SE NM regions on Sunday. Still a long way out, but just enough model consistency to suggest at least a 2-3 day event with decent shear and RH return. Could be a complex, day-by-day forecast, with a few MCS blobs thrown in for added PM lightning enjoyment. Would not be surprised to see a few landspouts with so many OFB's. Not sure how far north the action will reach, but I'm guessing it will be more of a cloud / rain / lack of CAPE situation. All of this is a guess, but trending towards the positive.
 
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