State of the Chase Season 2025

[Brett Roberts]

Well, this seemingly too-good-to-be-true late May pattern a full month early might be trying to deliver the goods against all odds. Yesterday was an excellent Panhandle chase (on multiple storms/targets) that would've made everyone happy even during peak season, nevermind April. I was struck by how green the landscape looked relative to my expectations, at least in the eastern half of the TX PH... and each of the past few days has soaked additional areas that might've missed out prior. That should bode well for the next few days, and hopefully for later in May if we're lucky.

As of Friday morning, it appears Sunday 4/27 has support for dryline CI from about 60-70% of NWP guidance from various modeling centers. If we do get any robust storms to mature before dark, the environment looks supportive of tornadic supercells down a long stretch of the dryline from NE to TX. Overall, it resembles a high-potential day you'd typically see in mid-late May... coming on the heels of several subtler days in that vein. Then Monday should offer yet more tornado potential as the trough kicks out, albeit farther east and possibly messier with the positive tilt... but even so, this might be the most appealing stretch of consecutive chase opportunities I can ever remember seeing in April.

 

[Warren Faidley]

The 18z. GFS and ECMWF are now hinting of the promised pattern change during the first week in May. This is new from 24 hours ago. I would not be surprised to see the other models start picking this up in the next 24 hours if it's for real. Too far out to guess how this will evolve, as a multiple day set-up or a one day wonder.

 

[Dan Robinson]

A Sunday-Monday trip is still up in the air. There is still enough model disagreement on dryline initiation to give pause on more enthusiasm. A lot of the forecast soundings for the dryline in Kansas/Nebraska Sunday are grim, showing a pretty hopelessly-unbreakable cap. Monday does look better, and much closer (to the Midwest), reducing the cost-in-the-event-of-bust ratio.

A plus for me (and anyone else coming from the east) is the activity trends east each day, with Tuesday being a local or at least Midwest event. I will be packing up the car tomorrow, but holding off decision time until late evening. Even though I'm only 6-10 hours from the dryline, it's still a different dynamic than those who are only 2-4 hours out and can leave after noon the day of.

I'm also trying to not let the way things overperformed the past 2 days influence my decision making. Even after all these years, it's still something I have to snap myself out of. Although it seems like the Plains have periods of "mojo", every day is a unique event that succeeds or fails on it own merits, many of which we can't resolve very far in advance.

It's easy to look back in hindsight and say "duh, I should have chased this week", but actually, no, I shouldn't have. I only have 8 to 10 Plains chase days in my PTO and leisure fund budgets between April and June each year. More distant-from-the-Midwest target areas like the southern Texas panhandle, western Nebraska and the Dakotas are even more costly, if all I did was those, I'd have maybe 5 or 6 chases a year available. I can't chase everything. I have to be selective. With it being so early, there is no shame for someone in my budget category sitting out periods like this. It's not like that strategy hasn't suited me just fine in the past.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Right there with you Dan. Not so much a budgetary issue for me, but I share the PTO challenge, as well as the general time, inconvenience and disruption of heading out multiple times. It’s something I’ve actually never even done; it’s just aspirational, and never seems to be worth it, or workable due to other commitments. I do hope to do it this year finally, but my focus was always May/June, not April. An April trip would have made sense conceptually for a reasonably certain outbreak sequence, but not for the kind of late-May mesoscale over-performance that we saw this week. The week was out for me because of a board meeting, and when that was scheduled months ago I was just happy it would be out of the way before May. I ended up wishing it hadn’t been this week, but what can you do. I also agreed to other social commitments this weekend, thinking “what are the odds I would need to chase those particular days” - again, being only April.

I’m in pretty good shape for May and the first week of June, able to be on the Plains for all but 10 days, though it will involve three separate trips (including a questionable and perhaps too short to be worth it 5/1-5/6) and I’ll have to be selective on which days to chase while out there because of PTO limits (working remotely the rest of the time). I need to make sure I save some PTO for when my son is out with me at the end of May.

 

[Todd Lemery]

I’ve have mild concerns with the cap Sunday and Monday. It won’t stop me from heading out though. Nothing is standing out to me the first week of May right now, but the second week looks to be highlighted by some decent moisture return and a couple of troughs affecting the plains.
I’ll take what I can get now as my wife and I took turns having surgeries and I have May 15-19 blocked off to travel North for another graduation.(my wife blocked off that many days) .

 

[Mitch Drabenstott]

Keeping an eye on the week starting the second weekend of May as that’s when I’ll be heading out for a week.

The GFS operational has shown a death ridge for 3 straight runs which would not be ideal. Its ensembles don’t look much better with deep troughing in the east and a ridge axis over the Rockies. Maybe some upslope action in this pattern but that’s about it.

The Euro ensembles don’t dig the trough in the east enough for it to persist for awhile. As a result the ridge axis is over the plains with SW flow looking to return in a day or two after the end of the run.

Really hoping the GFS is out to lunch as it often is in the long range. A down day or two is fine, a week-long crappy pattern would be brutal. I have another chance to chase later this season since I’ll be in Denver for a few days in June, but this is my one dedicated chase vacation this year so I’m really crossing my fingers that there’s some good stuff to chase.

 

[William Monfredo]

...out to lunch as it often is in the long range...

I understand the temptation to look out that far, but I wouldn't spend too much time taking it seriously. It can flip in a week, not to mention two.

 

[Mitch Drabenstott]

I understand the temptation to look out that far, but I wouldn't spend too much time taking it seriously. It can flip in a week, not to mention two.

Trust me, as someone who lives in the northeast I know how that can be. There are countless times every winter when the GFS shows a blizzard 2 weeks out and it ends up being 45 and sunny. And just last year for my chase vacation the GFS/GEFS showed intense ridging over the Rockies 10-15 days out…it ended up being nowhere near as bad as progged.

I’m not taking anything super seriously at this range. Just trying to get a feel for how things could be. I wish I had the willpower to ignore everything now and check back in 5-6 days but I get too antsy.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I’m with you @Mitch Drabenstott in hoping the GFS flips… That would be a real kick in the groin for me if it verifies as currently shown. Every week is a perfect mismatch of the weather pattern and my ability to chase. Couldn’t chase this past week, can chase first week of May when it doesn’t look too good, can’t chase 5/7-5/11 when it could be better, then can chase again starting 5/12 when it looks bad again. What incredibly bad luck that would be… (BTW, I see you’re in PA. It’s a big state, but wondering if we happen to live in the same part of it - send me a direct message if you can!)

 

[Todd Lemery]

without getting deep into the weeds, the 02z NAM3k (18z run) for Monday is showing just a couple of cells in Iowa and nothing South of that before dark. Sunday show’s even less. I may have to consider how far I’m willing to drive to catch the 50 mph cells before dark. It’s probably a good lesson looking at the storms around the Texas panhandle the last three nights. All isolated and slow moving storms the last few days is really appealing. None of the days were ever going to be high end events, but wide open plains and slow chases get my heart every time.

 

[JamesCaruso]

All isolated and slow moving storms the last few days is really appealing. None of the days were ever going to be high end events, but wide open plains and slow chases get my heart every time.

Another one in NM this evening… Isolated with nothing else around for miles and miles… As I always say, you can only chase one supercell at a time anyway. I would rather have one, isolated, slow moving supercell in a mesoscale setup than a bunch of fast-moving ones in an outbreak.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Longer range models are all over the place with upper air forecasts beyond a few days. Really impossible to make any sense of the "state of the season." Still looks like some type of set-up by the end of next week, but not enough confidence ATM to make a deployment decision.

 

[Sean Ramsey]

I just got back from being out a few days in the Tx Panhandle and to have such slow moving storms in wide open territory is about as good as it gets for this time of year. I skipped yesterday because it would've taken me way further south (deep in the Permian Basin) making the drive back a lot tougher and I wanted to be rested for the upcoming day or two if there is anything.

I am pretty cost conscious when it comes to how much I chase so I have to be selective in when I go out, especially to targets over five hours plus, so I can definitely relate to waiting to pull the trigger at the right time. That almost never works out for me though, and I end up watching those who go out no matter what score time and again while I sit at home, which is fine. I have to take my hat off to those with the passion to get out there no matter what. Everyone's life circumstances are different and that can affect how much one gets out, but to be out day after day is admirable and I appreciate their passion. But, it's not the life for me.

I guess what I'm saying is that most of the best days are not slam dunk tornado days so trying to pinpoint the best dates is incredibly hard. If you can't be out for everything, I think you just have to jump into the dates you do have (or choose) with both feet and don't look back and try to enjoy just being out no matter what. I know I live in Oklahoma but it's almost better to be from far away because home is always calling, and the pull is incredibly strong, especially if you're tired.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Right on track and growing consistency among models of a new and improved system moving into the Plains by late next week. The question will be how it evolves -- although it does not really matter if you are setting up for the long term. I'll likely be heading out Thursday or Friday in anticipation of any advanced sneak attacks. Really nice to see Tornado Alley return to it's roots.

 

[Jason N]

Warren, agreed, it seems like that the week of 4 to 9 May could have some potential as that longer term trend for a cut-off feature or trough has remained from CFS to GFS in varying degrees, locations, and intensities, so somewhere up on the NM/TX border north and east on the Cap Rock looks like it could be interesting.