Slow start to 2010

[Ryan Wichman]

I know this has been a slow season for many storm chasers. So just how slow has it been? I have posted a few graphs from the SPC.

I am still not jumping on board the panic wagon, but I will sign up for the impatient list. Using 2003 as an example for why you shouldn't be worried, I will remain relaxed and wait for the ingredients to come together. In the mean time the lack of storms will be made up for....eventually.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

No need to worry yet. If we haven't had any good tornado events by mid May then start to worry.

 

[Jason Caster]

It's hard not compare any year to 2008, with it being so recent and such an active year.
Who knows what the rest of the season will bring.

 

[Rick Schmidt]

I don't get too excited until about mid-April. The season is actually just beginning.

 

[Scott Olson]

In a way, it's kind of a good thing because we all know that when there is a particular lull or pattern that is unfavorable or favorable, that it is bound to switch. And it will hit so hard and so fast that no one will be on here to talk about it or discuss how active it has become.

From all the data I've looked at, my money is on June but I don't think by any means May will be quiet. We've had a seriously active jet stream that has locked the country in artic air, it's certainly no wonder that it's been quiet. But that will not last. The pattern as of late is active and with the increasing heating and ambudant soil moisture, it should be good.

I'd be more worried if there was a large and persistent blocking pattern setup.

1988 is pretty much said to be the ridge of death year. I remember hearing somewhere that Sioux City didn't issue any warnings at all that year.

To climatologists the period in North America from April to late July 1988 is known as the Great Dry. This was a severe placement of a set of blocks or ridges starting in spring and continuing into late summer that prevented the onset of moisture currents from the Gulf of Mexico that are the source of much of the summer thunderstorm activity in the Corn Belt and the wheat growing regions of the United States.

From what's been happening recently and the CPC forecast of above average precipitation, I think we are not in a very high risk of a dull season.

 

[Bryan Stokes]

As a plains chaser, I'm not even remotely concerned yet. Most of the activity in February and March is in the deep South and areas I don't chase in, such as Arkansas. It really isn't until mid-April that things start to really kick-off in the plains. Of course, it's always fun to look at statistical data...so thank you for posting the charts!

Bryan

 

[Jason Foster]

Don't let Chris C. see this thread.....although I'm sure a funny internet graphic poster will soon come out afterwards.

 

[Brian Stertz]

One thing that does not have me worried is a significant fairly zonal Pacific jet and a retreating polar vortex. April is always the battle ground between some cold air intrusions, cap, and the occasional tornado event or outbreak. April 20th marks my date when to expect better chances of significant and widespread severe wx. Seems like the supercells seem to get larger and meaner as April presses on...but I must say I have had some good chases in early April....the 4/8/99 IA fast n' furious chase comes to mind. This was also a day where I nailed the forecast...one of my biggest successes as a forecaster to date.

http://vortex-times.com/4899chase

 

[Andy Wehrle]

2006 is a recent example that comes to mind of a year with a fast start that turned out to be a poor chase year. March had a couple of significant outbreaks and early April was very active primarly across the Mississippi Valley and Southeast, then May rolled around and all the chasers were left scratching their heads wondering what to do with the 2 weeks I had blocked off?

 

[GPhillips]

1988 is pretty much said to be the ridge of death year. I remember hearing somewhere that Sioux City didn't issue any warnings at all that year.

That was my first year in the NWS and I was stationed at Sioux City. We only had responsibility for 11 counties. There were 12 warnings, none of them of the tornado variety. There were a 5 warnings on May 8, 1 on July 24, and the other 6 on August 22nd. That was it for the year. I only issued one warning and was so disappointed. The weather related highlights that year were the record heat, and the persistent smoke from the Yellowstone fires.

 

[Brandi Davison]

I forget where I read it, but there is usually about 90 tornadoes reported in the month of March in the US and there were something like 16 actually reported this year. However I don't think it is a concern. It is just getting started!

 

[Patrick Marsh]

I forget where I read it, but there is usually about 90 tornadoes reported in the month of March in the US and there were something like 16 actually reported this year. However I don't think it is a concern. It is just getting started!

The longterm average is closer to 150 tornadoes for March and as of the beginning on the week, 14 had been reported this month.

56 have been reported for the entire year so far.

http://www.patricktmarsh.com/2010/03/day-81-abnormally-quiet-tornado-year-so-far/

 

[Jeff Passner]

Honestly, it's not really chase season yet. March is the time for fast moving systems that are hard to chase and enjoy. I really, really like the first two weeks of June.... You have longer daylight hours and slower storms. Yes, this has been a very slow "winter" but that's a fact --- it's STILL winter out there. The Gulf is cold, Florida has low dew points and we have systems cutting off in the SE USA... It's not tornado season yet. It will be a slow early season given the lack of any deep moisture. When June comes it might be great if we can keep some flow. What your plots show is the lack of tornadoes in the SE USA.... That's all.

 

[Scott Olson]

That was my first year in the NWS and I was stationed at Sioux City. We only had responsibility for 11 counties. There were 12 warnings, none of them of the tornado variety. There were a 5 warnings on May 8, 1 on July 24, and the other 6 on August 22nd. That was it for the year. I only issued one warning and was so disappointed. The weather related highlights that year were the record heat, and the persistent smoke from the Yellowstone fires.

Yep, that's it, not a single tornado warning for 88 for SUX.

What your plots show is the lack of tornadoes in the SE USA.... That's all.

Exactly Jeff! It can usually be nailed down to a couple outbreaks in the SE during Feb-Mar to bring the climb into April. Then we start seeing the S. Plains numbers start ramping up.

One thing to keep in mind, the GoM is generally below average right now. In fact looking at comparsions on FSU between the 3 day average period for the last 30 years, shows that few years resemble such a cold GoM and such positive departures around the central Americas and Africa region.

We've had recent intrusions and the GFS/NAM show more intrusions coming. The gulf loop looks warmer than usual as does the area south of Cancun/Cuba.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

As regards my opinion I think we could give two interpretations: first of all, I think the ONI Index Pattern looks like similar but not equal to 2003 one (it's a little stronger) so we could have hot first 15 days of may and big tornadoes from 5 to 15 june. That's what I believe. But it's just a theory and I'm gonna verify it. In addition this Oni Pattern could be more and more similar to 1958 as well, with big tubes from 5 to 15 June.
Try to take a look at this link and see the similarities between 2010 and 1958/2003:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html

Secondly, our experience shows that every initial trend usually tends to verify and repeat. I mean, generally speaking, if a season starts with one pattern, this pattern tends to repeat. It is difficult to see abrupt changes in the short term. Followig this theory we should think this early spring could be cold and rainy and this pattern is not particularly favorable for tornado outbreaks in May (like 2005). Moreover we're seeing cold anomalies in the Gulf in SST maps and I don't like too much this kind of pattern, especially in terms of moisture recall.