Legislation to Create a National Disaster Review Board

[Randy Zipser]

While a lot of attention in this horrific, deadly flood disaster has been focused on the National Weather Service offices (SJT, SAT).

What about the State of Texas resources? The Texas Water Development Board (TWBD) is the agency designated by Texas state law as the state National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) coordinating agency (counterpart to the OWRB in Oklahoma). If Texas operates their flood program anything like Oklahoma has been doing for years after my time there, the TWBD should be offering outreach services to afflicted residents, particularly now in these crucial post-recovery days following the disaster rescue efforts. The flood-program pages on their website are at the following link: Texas Water Development Board.

For a flood disaster of this magnitude (the Guadalupe River Basin is extremely flood-prone based upon several similar past events), it is entirely predictable (yet still somewhat concerning) that state flood program resources may not be able to handle adequately the post-recovery response without additional federal assistance (FEMA, National Guard, etc.) or similar emergency-response personnel brought in from other states (Florida is one state whose governor has already offered such help). The NFIP personnel will be on-site handling property damage claims, but these field-adjusters usually will not be involved with matters outside the purview of NFIP assistance regulations. And, then there's DOGE's efforts earlier this year to transfer FEMA's current functions to the states as part of the current administration's efforts to reduce the federal deficit (which is not going to happen anyway with the budget bill just passed!). It's just one big mess and a sad state of affairs: pointing-fingers and the "blame game" will get us nowhere fast!

That is why Mike's idea of a National Disaster Board is such a good idea, especially if this one entity will jump right in and quickly assess whatever assistance is needed immediately after the event and issue recommendations for coordination of all available assets, whether federal, state, private, or military.

The federal government doesn't want to handle major natural disasters and the states' emergency-program resources will likely be quickly overwhelmed, so a NDRB would be the answer. But, is anybody in Washington listening? Will it take a Cat 5 hurricane plowing through Houston, New Orleans, Tampa, or Miami to stir Washington to take action? Do like I did and keep bugging your Congressman or Congresswoman to take action and find some funds in the bill just passed and get this thing going!

 

[Mike Smith]

But, is anybody in Washington listening?

One representative: Congresswoman Sharice Davids (my congresswoman) from Johnson Co., Kansas. Before I moved to her district in September, she introduced the WARN Act to study why the sirens and other systems were not going off before tornadoes hit. In multiple conversations, her staff has been shocked that the reason is the NWS often didn't issue a tornado warning in time!

No one else, including Kansas' senators are interested. I was told by a highly prominent national newswoman, "You have a great idea, Mike. But no one in Washington will be interested because it makes too much sense and none of them can get rich off it." So far, she has been absolutely correct.

The only way this is going to happen is for you to write your congresspeople -- again -- and to also alert the media if you have any contacts.

Since we don't have an NDRB, I wrote a letter (via his website) to Texas' Governor Abbott Saturday requesting the appointment of an investigative board. So far, no response. I doubt I will get one.

 

[Mike Smith]

And.......

Another unwarned EF-2 tornado.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1942677344352612768

Another reason we desperately need the NDRB is the NWS is failing. Its current management doesn't even acknowledge the issues let alone have a plan for fixing tem.

 

[Randy Zipser]

BTW, M

Do like I did and keep bugging your Congressman or Congresswoman to take action and find some funds in the bill just passed and get this thing going!

BTW, Mike, I wrote two house reps from my state (a Democrat and a Republican!), but got no answer from either--not even an "auto-pen-signed" form letter! It's is so frustrating these days to communicate with all federal officials, unlike the good, ole' days (e.g., the Vietnam War years) when at least we received a one-page typed form-letter with the usual B.S. about "taking your concerns into serious consideration" and even sometimes an having a real ink-signed signature. In today's political climate, however, sometimes I think it's almost not worth the effort...but still do it anyway!

 

[Mike Smith]

You may recall seeing in my original piece the question, "if "dozens are missing from Camp Mystic, what is the total number missing?"

Gov. Greg Abbott just had a press conference that finally answered that question: A staggering "at least 160."

It is almost certain this will exceed Big Thompson's 144.

 

[Randy Zipser]

A staggering "at least 160."

Our local Spectrum News channel (BayNews9) reports a confirmed death toll of 109 and a count of 161 people still missing and presumed dead. In the worst-case scenario, that would be 270 deaths due to this one disaster. That number rivals or exceeds some of the worst, most violent tornado outbreaks in modern times. According to an AI-derived summary on Wikipedia, there have been 67 fatalities just from tornadoes in the U.S. and 75 worldwide in 2025 YTD.

What we forget is that moving water, not wind, results not only in most of the property damage, but also fatalities, in land-falling tropical cyclones. The force of water in motion is usually underestimated, and wind speeds tend to be overestimated. Maybe that's why people tend to react more slowly to heavy rainfall and "rising water" levels than to high winds, and are less likely to get out of the way of coastal storm surge or cresting inland rivers, even if warned.

Fortunately, when I was the NFIP Coordinator at the OWRB in the early 1980s, Oklahoma did not experience a flood event on the scale of this TX event, but did experience a noteworthy flooding event in northeastern OK in November, 1983, due to a stalled frontal system (overruning synoptic set-up, if I remember correctly). Always be leery of moving and, especially, rising water!

 

[Mike Smith]

count of 161 people still missing and presumed dead. In the worst-case scenario, that would be 270 deaths due to this one disaster.

Just a FYI for people without as much experience as we have: in tornadoes, typically about 1/2 to 2/3 of the missing are dead and the other left the area without telling friends or family. In floods, the probability of them being alive may not be as good. Thus, my estimate of perhaps 200 lives lost.

 

[Randy Zipser]

Thus, my estimate of perhaps 200 lives lost.

Far, far too many, considering all the technology we have to observe and monitor local weather and hydrologic guages. But, all the technology and advanced warning-capability in the world is useless for an event that happens as rapidly as these huge flood events, like Big Thompson (CO), Wilkes-Barre (PA), and even Asheville (NC) from Hurricane Helene in 2024, to name a few. Also, the common factor in all these extraordinarily, rapidly-developing events involves rivers in canyoned, hilly or mountainous topography.

 

[Mike Smith]

Also, the common factor in all these extraordinarily, rapidly-developing events involves rivers in canyoned, hilly or mountainous topography.

They also have in common subpar (not terrible) warnings by the NWS. Under current NWS warning definitions*, there is no question a FFE should have been issued by around 3am Friday.

In addition the North Carolina flood was poorly forecast until the final hours. Many survivors lost power and could not hear subsequent warnings.
If you doubt this, please watch this interview with Andy Revkin in which I document the awful forecasts just two days before. My Interview With Andy Revkin


* If the NWS says, "we are going to issue a FFE before life-threatening floods which may require water rescues," why would we meteorologists expect EM's and the public not to believe and trust that statement? This is why the NWS should never have created all of these subcategories of convective warnings. Plus, it puts addition stress and workload on their staffs.

 

[Mike Smith]

And..... it just gets worse. Screen capture of a home being carried downstream by an extreme flood that people are saying broke the record on the local flood gauge.

And, as usual, no "flash flood emergency" warning.

The NWS badly needs to get its act together.

 

[Randy Zipser]

the North Carolina flood was poorly forecast until the final hours. Many survivors lost power and could not hear subsequent warnings.

I have owned vacation property in the AVL area and remembered seeing high-voltage power transmission lines near the French Broad River. Relatively flat floodplains, especially in a mountainous area like western NC, are a very tempting place to locate these transmission towers because of sparce population and few topography issues. The following link shows how Hurricane Helene modified the floodplain where such power lines are located: French Broad River Park - Power Lines - Before and After · Come Hell or High Water Community Memory Project.

Looking at these scenes, it's no wonder why people there lost power and could not "hear" the warnings. Bad planning on the part of "city fathers" of these communities, which likely they did not correct following Helene, rather just replanted new trees and ground cover over the same floodplain, as in the 2022 "before pics!" It is probably too prohibitively expensive for Duke Power to relocate these power-lines into "right-of-ways" outside the existing river floodplain corridors (which are highly susceptible to severe flooding). So, there will be a "next time" (unfortunately)...

 

[Mike Smith]

As a Reagan Conservative (not Republican), I am ashamed of the R's. Evidently, wanting to fix what went wrong makes you a "loser." Texans, here's how to make your opinion known: Office of the Texas Governor | Greg Abbott

Meanwhile, Sen. Schumer is right on the money. Democrats, please support him and put in 2¢ in favor of the NDRB! Message Chuck | U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer of New York

 

[Mike Smith]

Fantastic news today!!! BREAKING NEWS: Thank You, Dr. Neil Jacobs, the Future Head of NOAA

 

[JamesCaruso]

That’s great Mike!

I also saw this in a Wall Street Journal online piece this morning:

The American Enterprise Institute’s Roger Pielke Jr. has suggested that Congress could establish a board modeled on the National Transportation Safety Board to investigate mistakes made during natural disasters to prevent their recurrence.

I hope you get the credit you deserve for having advocated this for so long! Unfortunate that it took a major, high-profile tragedy to get people talking about it, but you’ve been speaking out about this for a long time…

 

[Mike Smith]

The American Enterprise Institute’s Roger Pielke Jr. has suggested that Congress could establish a board modeled on the National Transportation Safety Board to investigate mistakes made during natural disasters to prevent their recurrence.

James, as of retirement, I no longer take the WSJ. Could you forward the article to me? [email protected]. Thank you.

As to credit, it is said: Success has many fathers, failure is an orphan. I suspect (since most reporters these days are not very enterprising), they saw Roger retweet my idea (see: The Texas Flash Floods ) and assumed the idea was Roger's even though he clearly attributes it to me.

The important thing is to get this done and done well!! Still, thank you. After 13 years, it is nice to see some light at the end of the tunnel.