Season of Diminished Hopes

[samuel stone]

That setup may be just around the corner, if the 12Z GFS verifies. After 1100 miles and not much to show from this past weekend (the ogallala storm was nice, but not worth 1100 miles), i was ready to write this miserable season off yesterday. Now, my mind is blown by seeing an upper low sitting over the TX panhandle this coming weekend. No classic setup, but it sure is tempting. Hope its not just taunting me :unsure:
[/b]

maybe I am a pessimist but I dont share the optimism of some, I just figure that even if we get a nice surface low and a great wind profile to go with it wont matter because every set up in the plains this year has featured the same thing: moisture completely mixing out. Moisture depth simply will not be sufficient I dont think. Maybe its the drought?

 

[Stan Rose]

maybe I am a pessimist but I dont share the optimism of some, I just figure that even if we get a nice surface low and a great wind profile to go with it wont matter because every set up in the plains this year has featured the same thing: moisture completely mixing out. Moisture depth simply will not be sufficient I dont think. Maybe its the drought?
[/b]

Hey Sam: thanks for keeping this post going--it deserves to be front and center (im not ready to chase hurricanes this year quite yet!) I understand your pessimism, with me it's even more depressing cause this is the first season ive had a chance to chase on days off rather than cross my fingers and buy a plane ticket.
While the drought is a possible problem, blaming the drought implies that evapo-transpiration is a major issue. I don't think it is--i think the drought PATTERN is more to blame (course, there could be feedback mechanisms playing into the pattern, but then you have to consider the whole global circulation and not just our regional drought) There's moisture down there--we just have to get it up here! I've noticed the moisture mnixing out a lot, but ive also noticed a lack of decent LLJs, and for that matter a lack of decent surface features. All tied into the lack of decent jets/troughs! It does seem like many setups have gone to waste, but i wonder if that's partly just our perception--we think every setup around the corner looks great when really it sucks compared with other years. That's why i'm not holding my breath for the remainder of June, but i would like to see something left this season-S

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

While not the first year I have chased; it is the first year I have frequently chased long distances of 300 miles or more. While it definetly has been a slow year I have not been dissapointed, first of all I have had some very successful chases; two Tornadoes, Marysville KS and Beatrice NE not to mention some decent structure chases as well Oklahoma on 4-1, and just recently 6-10 in Colorado. I think these slow years are extremly important esspecially for younger more inexperienced chasers; I myself have learned a ton about forecasting sever weather this year (a lot of credit goes to those I have surrounded myself with). Personally I feel I have learned more about forecasting due to looking at data from a "whats limiting" standpoint as opposed to just finding the best looking varibles and driving to them. I think years like this determine the trully passionate chasers from the rest, plus years like this are what make finnally bagging something so fun, if we just went out and easily filmed tornadoes the excitment of one would surely decrease. It has been a Productive year for me and I still have high hopes; all it takes is one unexpected summer afternoon to make 2006 un-forgetable.

 

[samuel stone]

I definently share your thinking about learning in slow years, let me say this, just 3 years ago I did not even know what a computer model was, I did not even know there was such a webpage as "SPC Mesoscale Analysis", I knew the very very basics about weather from watching the weather channel through my childhood, but I was no where near where I am now, and closlely looking for details that bust a set up helped me along so I definently think slow years help you learn faster.

I suppose it is just the gas prices getting to me. Maybe I will get over it, but a nice tube would sure help the healing process

 

[Dal Archer]

Many of the thoughts echoed here are my own. Going into the season, I was somewhat pessimistic as Oklahoma (my home state) and Texas were in an extreme drought. This really tempered my enthusiasm, but after the wild day on March 12 I started to hold out some hope for the season.

Then as things really went nuts through March and April, I really felt better. I chased several times in March and April, and although we hit tornado warned storms on each occasion, we failed to get footage of any tubes.

However, as May fell apart and June collapsed, I have gotten a sinking feeling of despair. After a great start, things sure went south in a hurry.

I recently did a simple study of tornadoes that have occurred from 2000 - 2005 and some surprising numbers came to light. I compared the number of tornadoes that had occured in 17 different states for this time period and found some interesting trends. During this time period, my home state of Oklahoma finished 9th in the number of tornadoes that had occurred. Eastern and northern states such as Alabama and Minnesota had more tornadoes during this time span. I have mentioned for several years, that I feel that Tornado Alley may be shifting more to the east (& now I suspect north as well). Now I know that a five year study is not a real representative sample and it may represent more of a short term "hiccup" rather than a real pattern, but I found it interesting nevertheless. Any thoughts from anyone else?

On the positive side, I did order the WxWorx system in May and got to try it out on the supercell around Cheyenne, OK on May 30th and I was amazed at how much this system helped me out. I found the data gleaned from this tool to be incredible. I do not have a wireless data plan (and it would probably have not worked anyway in this particular region) and the ability to have access to the type of data delivered by the WxWorx system is incredible.

So although, this season has been rough (many miles, no tornadoes), I cannot feel too bad. On all chases this year but one, I have managed to be on storms with tornado warnings, but I just haven't been able to pull in the elusive tube. Although, I would like to think something may still pop in the next couple of weeks, I am not optimistic and it is frustrating. (I have not had any tornadoes since Mulvane in 2004). But overall, I have had the opportunity to be on some great storms this year and so I can't call the year a total "wash" (but a tornado or two would sure help out!).

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

About the coming systems and moisture. I really don't think the drought problems have had much at all to do with there being poor moisture to work with(I agree with Stan). I don't remember really any onshore flow after that one strong gulf scouring many many weeks ago now. That must have been after those storms in TX in early May when there were high dews up into OK that the gulf got slammed by a front. Most of this whole time there's either been no flow at the gulf or even offshore flow. All we keep getting is continental air(bad at that) being used over and over. I keep looking at the surface obs down there and seeing the same sad story over and over. Well that is until just now. Tonight is the first night I remember looking at the gulf and seeing se winds in a looooong time. I'm pretty doubtful it will amount to much for tomorrow's system, but would hope things would change quickly now in regards to getting deep moisture onshore.

The gfs shows a nice fetch starting up now and continuing. HERE

Now that it looks like we should start seeing deeper moisture in place I'm sure the jet will shift way the hell into Canada anyway. If it doesn't I would certainly say game on! I wish this had started a few days ago so tomorrow would be in better shape.

 

[Rich Thompson]

This year has been pretty bad, but it hasn't been quite as bad as 1988. The entire April-June period accounted for 3 tornadoes in OK, along with zero thunder days in April 1988 at OKC. It wasn't much better across the rest of the Plains, except for 8 May in IA/IL. You should try picking up chasing with 1987-88 as two of your first three years

I will admit that it's been the worst 2 year weather stretch I can recall in central OK in the past 21+ years. We've had almost no snow in the winter, thunder and precip have been near record lows for much of the past 18 months, and the average monthly temperatures for 2006 have been about a month ahead of "normal". About the only thing more exciting than normal has been the fire weather season.

I've been unwilling to drive 500-1000 miles per day for subpar moisture and a rather hostile large scale pattern. Similar to Shane, I've only chased once since 3 May, and I've only been on three chases where we didn't cut our losses before dark (12 March KS/MO, 30 March OK/KS (my only tornado), and 1 April OK). Until we see a change in low-level trajectories and precip across the Plains, the moisture will continue to be a problem. Maybe next year...

Rich T.

p.s. I will say that I'm not upset about the lame season. It's not like I missed much on the days I could not chase due to work, and the pattern has been so obviously bad that there's little reason for false hope

 

[David Brookshier]

[attachmentid=374] May 9th was the most recent storm I got to see, since then nothing. We are having a severe drought down here and need something other than clear blue skies.


STDS (Severe Thunderstorm Deprevation Syndrome) setting in...I can't go on much longer...storms I need storms.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Hey...we've still got the second season coming this fall so maybe we'll get some chaser treats then...sometimes Sept/October in the Plains can come alive with some pretty good chasing. Just wished
I did not have to wait another 3 months before the next good chase opportunity. I am pretty much in agreement with Rich that this spring was in the same category as 1988...but 1988 had a great event on May 8th up in Iowa so this year may be suckier than that one !! If the fall craps out too...then it WILL be the worst year I have experienced as a chaser. :unsure:

 

[Dan Chaffee]

About the only thing more exciting than normal has been the fire weather season.[/b]

And the cause for very busy emergency management services in the state of Missouri during March.
Maybe Drylines pushing that far east was an omen?

We had abnormally high winter temps, abnormally low precip/VERY little snow preceed that
violent little stretch in Mo. and then followed by more of the former, excepting the first two cold weeks of May. I can't remember such persistant low Td's along the western arc of the GOM extending so late into June.

DC

 

[cdcollura]

Here is my list of chase days from May 17 through May 31 of 2006.

First of all, I was completely solo this year. Usually I am with 3-4 others, but due to personal reasons / medical stuff, these others could not make it (I considered myself lucky - Until seeing a REX BLOCK low stall over the great lakes from about 8 days before my trip - And remain there until 1 week after the start of my trip - Then a 5 day long ridge in response to that low once it took forever to move from the great lakes)!

With gas at $3.09 a gallon, about 55% more than a year ago in 2005, I was hoping the season would be in OK, KS, TX and I would not have to move around that much, but as murphy's law put it - No! One day I would be in Ohio, the next in Kansas, the next in Colorado, then ND, then SD, but NEVER was in Texas. In 2 weeks, and with about 9,134 miles and over $1,500 in gas later, came home with some gustnadoes and maybe a brief small tornado (barely a tornado)! Lots of down time, some busts, but some scores, depending on what someone makes of it.

Fortunately, I think I was one of the "luckier ones" as Amy Grant would sing - since I was able to make the most out of, well, a glass mostly EMPTY instead of HALF FULL. Horray to the over-zealous optimist!

Anyway, see the log below for Chris Collura (SKY-CHASER) solo chase...

May 17 - Arrival day. Arrived at Oklahoma City and picked up rental vehicle. Anticipating a few days of "down time" (no storms) I decided to head east on I-44 to spend the night in St Louis, Missouri. The only possibility of weak convection also happens to be in and east of the St Louis area before activity returns to the high plains in a few days.

May 18 - Today was expected to be a total down day which the first half of which was spent in Saint Louis, Missouri killing time. By afternoon, convection began east of the area with enhanced cumulus developing. After checking data and seeing an upper air disturbance moving across eastern and central Illinois and into Indiana, I decided to investigate any convection that might develop. In low dewpoint air, and despite a stiff northwest flow at the surface and aloft, some strong thunderstorms did get going, one of which was intercepted on Interstate 70 near Brazil, Indiana. Time-lape video was also produced for the remainder of the convection. Day was wrapped up for the night in Indianapolis, Indiana. This was the farthest east I ever chased and plans are to head back west for activity in a few days back in the high plains.

May 19 - Down day, with only slight chase prospects dwindling in the extreme southern portions of Illinois and Indiana, I decided to kill more down time with a visit and stay over in Chicago, Illinois since it was about 3 hours northwest of Indianapolis. I also forecasted and found that portions of MO and Kansas may have fair to good chasing prospects for the next day (May 20).

May 20 - Cap bust day. I decided to gamble by side tracking into SW Missouri near Cassville off Interstate 44 (since I had to head back west anyways) after seeing a moderate upper-air impulse sliding SE in the NW flow aloft with a pocket of high CAPE and boundary enhanced helicity (from a stationary front across southern MO) in that region. The only thing was the 700 mb temperatures were too warm, and a capping inversion held solid from the NE side of a 500 mb thermal ridge (to my SW). Waited for any signs of development until about 6:30 PM CDT and nothing happened, despite nearly a 20 degree difference (92 in Cassville with SW winds and 73 near Carthage with SE winds, 40 miles apart). Only elevated showers were observed north of the boundary due to the upper-air disturbance and associated large-scale ascent. Headed north on highway 77 and spent the evening in Harrisonville, MO. The next day (5-21) may be a chase day in western Kansas based on looking at data that evening of May 20.

May 21 - Chase day with two thunderstorms intercepted, one a supercell near Springfield, MO and the other a strong multicell storm near Plad, MO. Today had a nearly identical setup as the one on 5-20 near Springfield, MO so after much forecasting I decided to target that area rather than head west. This time, the cap was overcome since a mid-level MCV was rotating eastward out of central Kansas and two boundaries were in place over the target area. After the interception(s), I headed back to Salina, KS for the night anticipating a drive farther west on 5-22 for possible upslope convection in NE Colorado / NW Kansas.

May 22 - Today was a chase day with good potential which did not come together fully. Began the day by leaving Salina, Kansas after looking at data and forecasting a region of convergence / upslope in NE Colorado / NW Kansas under an approaching shortwave. Headed northwest on Interstate 70 then north to first target area of Wray, Colorado near the tri-state regions of CO, NE, and KS. Storms did develop in that region, but were very high based as dewpoints never reached that region and the upper dynamics had not cleared the Rocky Mountains in time. The storms were strong thunderstorms, one exhibiting weak rotation, but did not get organized. Met up with several other chasers, including Brian Morganti and Jeff Pitrowski and even did a demo of my equipment / interview for a Brazilian film crew riding along with Brian's group. Headed back east to North Platte, NE for dinner and to spend the evening as the next day (5-23) should be another chase day farther east in Nebraska along Interstate 80.

May 23 - Chase day in southeastern South Dakota where high chase prospects wound up with an outflow dominant squall line and many intense gustnadoes. Left North Platte after forecasting and found the best target to be near Chamberlain, South Dakota and nearby areas to the southeast along Interstate 90. Initiation of storms began as expected in the target area by afternoon and continued eastward along Interstate 90 where I met up with other chasers including Tony Laubach near Kimball, SD. The storms became linear and with very strong outflow winds, but a fantastic spree of gustnadoes was caught not far from Letcher, South Dakota ahead of the squall line. The storms encountered also had strong winds and heavy rains. The chase track played the squall line looking for circulations and forward-flank mesocyclones in the gust front. Todays long chase track, once out of Nebraska and into South Dakota, contined east along Interstate 90 into extreme SW Minnesota, then south on Highway 75 into Iowa where Tony Laubach and myself spent the night in Sioux City, Iowa.

May 24 - Today was a long chase day which began early with a forecast that targeted east-central Iowa and west-central Illinois. Tony Laubach and I left Sioux City, Iowa and headed south on Interstate 29 then East on Interstate 680 and 80. We passed Des Moines, Iowa then dropped southeast on Highway 163 into Ottumwa, Iowa where we checked data and met up with a few other chasers. We continued east on Highway 34 into Illinois. With another check of data, we continued to Galesburg, Illinois then north on Interstate 74 to finally intercept developing storms southeast of Moline, Illinois. The storm briefly became a small supercell near Rock Falls, Illinois before splitting and evolving into a multicell line and gusting out. We headed southeast on Highway 52, then to Interstate 39 to wrap up the day with dinner and lodging in Bloomington-Normal, Illinois.

May 25 - Another chase day beginning with Tony Laubach and myself forecasting and targeting east-central Indiana from Indianapolis to the Ohio border as tghe primary target. We left Bloomington-Normal, Illinois and headed east into Indiana towards Indianapolis and stopped at an exit off Interstate 70 where we met another chaser, David Diehl. We continued south towards Eminance, Indiana then towards Bloomington where the first tornado-warned supercell storm was found near Elletsville, Indiana producing small funnel clouds. The storm merged into a squall line so we headed back north and around to the east side of Indianapolis to try to get ahead of the storms, but they became linear and outflow dominant. We continued to the Ohio state line and ended the chase there. I continued back west towards Inidianapolis as Dave and Tony split apart as well. As I continued west, I encountered another severe storm with a spectatular shelf cloud (also outflow dominant) near Interstate 70 near Spiceland, Indiana. The storms continued to become linear, and I wrapped up the day spending the night in Indianapolis,l Indiana.

May 26 - Today was taken to be a travel (down) day to re-position farther west anticipating the next disturbance moving into the high plains. Left Indianapolis, Indiana and headed west on Interstate 70 most of the day and spent the night in Kansas City on the Kansas side. The original plan was to pass "down time" in Chicago, Illinois but plans changed as the rule was to head west. Unfortunately, major storms were missed this day in the western Kansas region as the "new" disturbance was much stronger than forecasts and models depicted. The next day should have activity and Kansas City at least puts any new chase prospects in range.

May 27 - Today was a long shot, a real long shot, which began with a forecast pinpointing the best chance of tornadoes and severe storms in northeastern North Dakota, and I made the trip. I left Kansas City, Kansas at 8:30 AM and headed up highway 29 through Kansas / Missouri, Omaha, Nebraska (where some strong storms were passed by), Sioux City, Iowa then into South Dakota and North Dakota choosing Fargo, North Dakota for the first target. The trip took about 7 hours, and I was in Fargo by 3:30 PM. Upon checking data, the best dynamics and chance of initiation (enhanced cumulus revealed by visible satellite) was about 100 miles to my west, so I headed west on Interstate 94 and found a line of towering cumulus far off to my NW. I headed north on Highway 231 out of Jamestown, North Dakota as the towering cumulus developed into a distant building supercell storm. This storm happened to be NW of Devils Lake, and was intercepted sucessfully with large hail and a rotating wall cloud / funnels. I also decided to go the extra 20 miles to the Canada border before returning to Jamestown, ND for the night as the next day will be a chase day farther south. This day was, put aside hurricane chases, the longest chase ever in my life!

May 28 - Chase day with severe storms intercepted in SW South Dakota. Forecasted in Jamestown, North Dakota to determine today's target area. There were two prospects, one again in northeastern North Dakota (departing surface low) and another in southwestern South Dakota (lee cyclogenesis was a possibility). If the low did not develop SW of South Dakota and the low in NE North Dakota did not move, northeastern South Dakota would have been good for possible storms. I left Jamestown and targeted Aberdeen, South Dakota. Here is where I waited for quite a while, watching the SE winds there quickly go SW as a cold front surged past Pierre to my west. Meanwhile, agitated cumulus appeared on the visible satellite in both NE North Dakota and SW South Dakota, nothing in my area. After another hour or so, the cumulus to the SW kepts building, and was in far better upper-air dynamics, plus slowly backing winds, despite it being in the post-frontal air. There was a very strong cap, and that helf off anything in ND (although an isolated cell fired there). I decided to go with SW SD so I headed southwest to Pierre, then targeted Kadoka, South Dakota. Storms were building rapidly to the southwest, and finally, a violent storm (hail and high winds) was intercepted near Wanblee in the Pine Ridge Indian reservation. After intercepting the storm, it was then a long drive through severe weather along Interstate 90 until west of Kennebec, where it cleared. The night was spent in Chamberlain, South Dakota as the next days chase prospects are SE Nebraska / NE Kansas.

May 29 - Today was supposed to be a chase day farther southeast (NE Kansas / SE Nebraska) but a cold front surged ahead of all the good upper air dynamics, so a long travel day (but trying to play along the front) from Chamberlain, South Dakota down into northeastern Kansas through southeastern Nebraska, then southwest into Liberal in SW Kansas anticipating a good setup for storms on 5-30. Managed to document some dust devils in eastern Nebraska, convection along the stalled cold front in NE Kansas, as well as very interesting dryline induced convection farther in SW Kansas. Also stopped in Hallam, Nebraska along the way to check out how the town was doing after a tornado destroyed it 2 years prior on May 22, 2004. I was delighted to see most of the town rebuilt. Met up with Verne Carlson and Tony Laubach in Liberal to share a room for the night.

May 30 - Chase day in western Oklahoma area. Forecasted and left Liberal, Kansas targeting development southwest of Woordward, Oklahoma. This was a dryline type setup with an outflow boundary and stationary front to play with. An upper air disturbance passed over the target region with an increase in upper winds in the right-rear entrance region of the jet stream flow. The storm was a supercell storm that was followed down and west of Highway 283 from near Cheyenne, Oklahoma to Interstate 40 until it gusted out violently.

May 31 - Departure and travel day. No storms were intercepted today or were in range. Returned the rental vehicle and left Oklahoma City, OK to return to Fort Lauderdale, FL.

This concludes the Midwestern United States Chase Log for the first trip in May 2006. The summary includes a total of 8 severe thunderstorms, 4 strong thunderstorms, and 2 tornadoes / funnel clouds. The main chase vehicle conducting all chases was a 2007 Ford Focus rental. This information was prepared exclusively for the National Weather service and the team of Skywarn storm spotters.

Better late than never, but this season was on the low side, with lots of traveling with little "return" ;-)

See full chase log here: http://www.sky-chaser.com/mwcl2006.htm!

Chris C - KG4PJN