Season of Diminished Hopes

[William Rayner]

Well, we have a Season of Broken Stuff thread, so how about a Season of Diminished Hopes?
As has already been pointed out, this has been a dismal year for tornadoes — not to mention severe storms. So I am suggesting a topic which lists all the logs of those who arrived in the Plains from elsewhere for a one, two or three-week chase season.

Here’s the Rayner log of nightly stops:
May 25 - Fly into DFW from YVR.
May 26 - Pampa, TX.
May 27 - Wakeeney, KS (for possible foray north the next day).
May 28 - Valentine, NB.
May 29 - Abilene, KS.
May 30 - Clinton, OK
May 31 - Ulysses, KS (in wait mode once more).
June 1 - Dalhart, TX.
June 2 - Colby, KS.
June 3 - Valentine again.
June 4 - Emporia, KS.
June 5 - York, NB.
June 6 - Castle Rock, CO.
June 7 - Amarillo, TX.
June 8 - Ft. Worth, TX.
June 9 - Dallas (from where we flew home in the evening after spending our
last chase day visiting the neat Amon Carter Museum).

Highlights: No tornadoes (for the second year in a row); three severe storms and the strange spectacle of a man with a rifle peering suspiciously into the ground-floor entranceway of a grain elevator somewhere in the Oklahoma Panhandle.
Oh yeah, broken stuff. My son sat on his eyeglasses (again), which we managed to replace at a Wal-Mart, and the Mapsend program in my laptop suddenly decided it didn’t want to talk to my Explorist GPS anymore, which meant we couldn’t download any info.

 

[Bob Schafer]

I hesitate to make this reply, because I don't wish to sound whiney, but what-the-hey! That's pretty much the purpose of the thread, and I'd say we can be excused for being whiney on this 11th day of June!!

(Incomplete log. I chased quite a bit prior to May 22!)

5-22 New Mexico to Kearney NE (chased in CO) 5-23 York NE 5-24 Rock Falls IL 5-25 W IN 5-26 travel day to Chamberlain SD 5-27 Bismarck ND 5-28 bust day, travel to Columbus NE 5-29 Dodge City 5-30 TX PH 5-31 E CO 6-1 drove home to NM

6-4 travel, NM to Lamar CO 6-5 McCook NE 6-6 Off day 6-7 Valentine NE 6-8 MT 6-9 travel to Ogalalla NE 6-10 NE PH, mechanical problems

Mileage: ~7700 (since May 22 only)
Tornado count: 1 (possibly!)
States chased 1999 to 2005: 7 New states chased 2006 alone: 8 (MO IA IL WI IN SD ND MT)

I must say this, however: I have really enjoyed it. I feel as though I was in the right place, or close to it, more often than ever before. I saw great storms, even though they didn't tornado. I ran into a greater number of chasers I know, from here and elsewhere, than ever before. Some I had not seen for years, others I had never met before. It was an almost daily occurrence. That was fun.

2 Funniest Moments (it's a tie): Farmer in NE getting his mail from his mailbox riding a golf cart with a huge, like, 6-foot antenna on it.....which had me picturing him chasing in the golf cart. I guess you had to be there. Then, I was in my motel room with the door open, typing away on the laptop (in the chatroom), and some motion catches my eye. I look up, and there's a frog enthusiastically hopping toward the bathroom.

[attachmentid=373]

I called the front desk and asked the girl if they charge a surcharge to guests with pets. She said yes. I confessed to having a frog in the room. She said "I suggest you escort that frog right out of there and close your door!!" I said "Yeah, I agree. I don't want to have to pay that surcharge!"

Bob

 

[nickgrillo]

Hmmm... I've done ~13,000 miles since the 12th of March (my only tornado day thus far this year) -- and have yet to have a real good supercell day since (>12,000 miles later) besides a couple decent supercells that had decent cloud-base rotation in OK on 4-1 and 5-9 but never produced any tornadoes. If I could trade the >12,000 miles (and while I chase in a Mustang and get relatively decent MPG -- you can still figure out how much I've spent roughly this far) I've done since the 12th of March, then I would with no problem. I didn't chase much of April due to being broke after buying my new car, and what extra money I did accumulate at work during the time period, I "saved up for May" (whoops). So far, I have seen two tornadoes this season (both of them near Springfield, IL) and while the storm was absolutely prolific -- there isn't much video footage to show for it -- given it was afterdark (and moving at raging speeds given the outragous deep-layer flow we had in the early season setups).

Wayyyyyyyy too much time spent chasing this year for very little so far, and living in Detroit and chasing the plains is no way a fun task (way too much time spent on the road and money wasted on gas). Out of MI, I'm pretty much only willing to chase IN/WI/IL/IA the rest of the season -- unless the setup looks like a classic high-end MDT (or HIGH). I'm so hoping for nice late June-July setups around here (and I recently just missed the damn WI tornadoes -- although virtually every chaser whom lives out of state did too. I honestly didn't see much of anything that day in my early analysis that would have made me wanna travel 300-500 miles west).

 

[Shane Adams]

I'm less worried about this year and am already hoping we don't repeat it again next year. I always knew sooner or later there would be a year like this, and this probably isn't the worst one I'll ever experience. I guess the thing that stands out the most to me is the sensation of being a "normal" person during what is usually the time of year when I feel most like a chaser. Not having chased since May 9, I'm basically over it all. I've been living my "normal life" mode for over a month now and I'm already back in the "waiting til next year" groove. It's weird getting up everyday feeling like it's July and it's May/June. I already am constantly unaware of what day it is, because of my job. The only time of year I'm up on dates is Spring....but with my season in ruins, I have to look at the computer or a calendar to know what day it is. Feels like I'm just going through the motions. There's no purpose in what I do lately, because I should be still chasing but I'm not. I guess "aloof" would describe it best.

Fortunately this crap season paralleled a very bad six weeks financially, so I didn't miss too much. Had this been an active or even average season, I would've missed everything. So I guess I lucked out there.

 

[Charles Kuster]

Yeah this year has really sucked. We have had two chase days (one in Nebraska and one in Illinois) in which we did not see much. I am still hoping that something chaseable will come later this month but I am not expecting it. It is close to time to wait for next year and endure 7 months (Oct-Apr) of snow and no thunder. :angry: I guess it is a bad sign when Oregon had more tornadoes in May than Nebraska, Colorado and Oklahoma (according to SPC preliminary data). Good luck to anyone who gets some kind of chance to chase!

 

[Angie Norris]

Two words describe this season...incredibly frustrating. Only had 6 chases, two of them "ladies chases", simply because there were storms in the neighborhood, two cap busts, but two good chases (April 1 and May 30). I was stuck at work on the only tornado days, and the most frustrating day was the El Reno tornadoes that I watched OUT THE WINDOW from work. The fact that I didn't get a confirmed tornado this year doesn't bother me because I chase for the storms...I'm quite happy with decent structure, lightning and hail.
There may be more storms later this summer, and maybe there will be something in the fall...who knows? There's always next spring.

 

[Chris Wilburn]

Like Shane said I have written off 2006 and am ready to call it good til next year. Of course we will have some decent setups this Summer and Fall, but probably not to a great magnitude (like last November). I chased like 12 days this year so I will not call it a failure. I did catch the tornado south of Beatrice on April 15th. This year seems like it has either been very fast moving storms, weak 500mb winds and moisture (esp. in May), storms that looked awesome with good rotation but just not quite able to produce (at least it seemed like this to me anyway). April 1st in SW OK is a good example of that.......as well as April 6th in SE KS. March 12th storms were moving very fast, terrain wasnt too good once storms hit Missouri, and it got dark early. Actually when you really stop to think about it the things that storms did on March 12th is absolutely amazing, esp. the cell that started as a radar blip in Osage Co. Oklahoma and had its last radar return in Michigan. April 1st in SW OK the cell south of Sayre looked really good but was just not able to produce. April 6th I saw several funnels in SE KS, but tornadoes just never happened. Overall I guess 2006 can be summed up like this. (1) An active March and April more so than most years.
(2) The very fast storm motions on a few very good looking days (3) May where there were hardly any good days (4) May where it always seemed that when you looked at a chart the 500mb winds were absolutely horrible (which is mostly due to the ridge i think). Congrats to those that did catch tornadoes and better luck to those next year that didnt. Another thing about this year it seems that many chasers including myself drove very far on very marginal setups due to being so far in between chase days. I am sure May will return with a bang sometime in the next few years. Just have to wait til next year and see.

Hmmm..........maybe the season isnt over yet.........afterall it is June 12th and something is bound to happen........or not .....will just have to dream about June 12 last year and 2004

 

[David Draun]

2006 was the year of my first chases. I wasn't too disappointed, since it was an opportunity to have unobstructed views and photo-ops of thunderstorms. I would have loved to see a tornado, but oh well. For me 2006 was lightning and structure. From a dark menacing shelf cloud on the 23rd in NE, to a cluster of supercells in the MO bootheel on the 25th, to an electric evening supercell over Bismark, ND on the 27th, it was great for structure and lightning. That cluster of storms on the 25th produced over 5000 CG's per hour! I'm pretty sure I saw over half of them, lol.

 

[Bob Hartig]

For me, it's a matter of perspective. I don't live in the Great Plains and have been limited in my ability to break away from work and chase. But two of the times I did get out this year resulted in my first successful chases since 1996. I caught the Missouri/Illinois outbreak in March and tracked that event's big beast of a supercell from west of Columbia, MO, all across Illinois--where I witnessed the tornado plow through Springfield at night--and on into Indiana.

Then a month later, I saw my first wedge in Iowa and watched a large funnel move across Iowa City after dark.

I couldn't have afforded to chase in May even if it had been a good month. I'm hoping that June will still offer a couple opportunities as I've finally acquired that mandatory tool of the trade, a notebook computer. But whatever happens, I'll count this year as a good one.

 

[Brandon Clement]

I have had several good chases this season, but most were close to home. I did witness a multi vortex crapnado, sampled hail big enough to leave dents and winds strong enough to make me change lanes but for the most part it was a year full of busts, crappy structure and no rotation. I made two trips to the plains one was a 2600 mile 54 hour trip and the other was a 1700 mile 30 hour trip. Both were insane goes at bad setups but what was 2006 without a bad setup? Anyways, I can't say that I regret any of the trips or the money spent and I always have tropical systems to look forward to. The best part about living in Ms is I am in reach for any tropical system and we get a severe weather pattern in November which is usually very productive.

 

[Kevin Myatt]

Log of the student chase trip I helped lead with Dave Carroll and Seth Price:

May 14 -- chased North Carolina, filmed a tornado near Durham, stayed in Rocky Mount, N.C. ... 1st day of a chase trip and we're 70 miles from the Atlantic Coast ... very WEIRD
May 15 -- travel day, overnight in Lebanon, Tenn. (just east of Nashville)
May 16 -- took students to tornado destruction scenes in Caruthersville, Mo. and Marmaduke, Ark. (the dark side of severe weather; they were deeply moved by it), observed some pulse storms in the Mo. Bootheel, catfish supper and overnight stay in Jonesboro, Ark. (where I stayed with my parents and woke up to the chase van in their driveway, also VERY WEIRD feeling)
May 17 -- chased central Illinois, best storm of trip, numerous striated wall clouds, overnight in Decatur, Ill.
May 18 -- travel, overnight (and Lambert's Cafe throwed rolls) in Sikeston, Mo.
May 19 -- busted chase day in SE Missouri, overnight stay across the state in Joplin, Mo.
May 20 -- basically a travel day, though we hung around SE Kansas a while in slim hopes that small chance of t-storms would come to fruition, overnight in Hays KS
May 21 -- chased NE Colo, SW Neb, gustnadoes and some severe, overnight in McCook, Neb.
May 22 -- busted chase day in Yuma, Colo., overnight stay in Grand Island, Neb.
May 23 -- chased NE Neb., SE S. Dakota, some lowerings, a squall line, and the ever-debated gustnado-tornado north of Vermillion (we didn't count it as a tornado), overnight in Vermillion, S.D.
May 24 -- chased NE Iowa, NW Ill., S. Wisconsin, observed 1 lowering that tightened into a rain-wrapped circulation, some neat structure, overnight in Bloomington, Ill.
May 25 -- chased western/central Indiana, most frustrating chase of the trip, on wrong side of tornadic supercell in bad terrain, overnight in Columbus, Ind.
May 26 -- returned 2 days earlier than originally planned to Blacksburg/Roanoke, Va.

 

[MatthewCarman]

2005 november (I forget the exact day) A f3 twister moved through Woodward Iowa nearly destroying the whole town. That was for november this far north! The outbreak is also playable on the NOAA "Hotseat" if you want to see how bad it realy was. (Find the hotseat thread to play it) That day we had many tornadoes possible close to 20 including 1 many saw go right by Ames. Just because MAY/JUNE may be the best months for seeing tornadoes does not mean the rest of the year should be ignored. For all you know summer/fall could be realy big on twisters this year. There will be more tornadoes this year you just have to have patience and wait. You will get in the habit of chasing every little setup that comes and waste lots of money and gas for nothing when you dont have patience aswell as give up half way through June like alot of people are thinking of doing and probibly miss some nice outbreaks during the summer/fall. Like November 2005 tornado outbreak for Iowa when everyone was ready to call it quits look what happend? So I would not call it quits as of yet for 2006. Just have patience. Starting this type of thread will only discourage others from chasing more this season reminding them how bad it has been so far. March and Aprill was pretty good so I dont think this season has been that bad as we did have some nice outbreaks. We even had a nice outbreak in Iowa that produced I beleive 17 twisters! ( I think that was in aprill but I forget) -MatthewCarman.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Still wondering if there are any good severe wx setups left in the tank. I am growing more concerned about the early and steady shift of the 582 500mb heights hiking up towards the Canadian border, and the main jet riding across the extreme Northern US & S.Canada now. If this does mean summer, I will have some good fall chasing to utilize some unused vacation time (if/when those better setups come along in the sometimes decently active September & October). I am in agreement with Shane, this year was a good year to just stay put and save the frustration that has been troubling most chasers. While certainly I do miss the chasing so far, I just know that some oddball setup WILL happen at some point this summer...and probably a few nice events this fall. No biggie.

 

[Terry Kollmeyer]

Season of diminished hopes, huh.....

I thought last year was bad, at least got 1 good tornado (6/04; MO). Actually that was my real only chase day then, too. And now this?! UGH!! I agree with Shane about seemingly going back to "normal" so early in the year. But odd, because I didn't figure normal would feel abnormal. But 2 yrs running, now normal seems normal (?!) For me it worked out as well. A few retirements put me in the top 8 in seniority (more $$), but when you have $$, you have no time to spend it. And reversed. So in some ways, it worked out...sort of.

I haven't completely closed the book on this year. But I am, however, looking at the back cover. Time will tell. We may have one sneek up on us.

I do feel bad for all the people who made long ventures out for nothing, seemingly time and again. I was more picky of my setups this year, and subsequently only made it out 2x, locally in central Il.

Second year in a row...you know what they say though, 3rd time is the charm. Keeping my fingers crossed for next year.

 

[Stan Rose]

Still wondering if there are any good severe wx setups left in the tank...While certainly I do miss the chasing so far, I just know that some oddball setup WILL happen at some point this summer...and probably a few nice events this fall. No biggie.
[/b]

That setup may be just around the corner, if the 12Z GFS verifies. After 1100 miles and not much to show from this past weekend (the ogallala storm was nice, but not worth 1100 miles), i was ready to write this miserable season off yesterday. Now, my mind is blown by seeing an upper low sitting over the TX panhandle this coming weekend. No classic setup, but it sure is tempting. Hope its not just taunting me :unsure: