Record Cold

[Jeff Snyder]

Except for a stretch of very hot temperatures in late June - July in the OKC area, I thought it was a rather nice summer down here. I have a hunch that it may be a warmer-than-average winter since it has been a cooler-than-average past few months for much of the central U.S. Such patterns can't stick around forever, right? I don't really care much about the wx the next few months anyway; as long as April-June gives us mean eastern US ridging and western US troughing, it's all good!

Finally going to get a cold front coming down to FL. From a high of 90 in Melbourne expected today to 80 tomorrow. Meanwhile, for perspective, globally this Sept. was the 2nd hottest on record:

Below is the summer temperature anomaly chart from NOAA:

 

[Tim Vasquez]

One consequence of all this unusual cold is that the NWS (at least at OUN) appears to be having a tough time forecasting the temperatures. The heavy black line below shows the actual daily maximum at OKC and the thin lines show the basic 7-day forecast trend from the FPUS54 Oklahoma City forecast received by the public. There seems to be a heavy skew towards either climatology or model temperatures (which could be having trouble with these shallow air masses). It's interesting that out of all the temperature forecast data points, about 210 of them, only about 10-15 underestimated the maximums (mostly on Oct 8) while about 170-180 overestimated the maximums.

Tim

 

[Tim Vasquez]

The above graph is kind of messy in terms of useful results so here is a box and whisker graph showing the temperature error distribution from Day 0 to Day 6 against the actual maximums that occurred Sept 15 - Oct 17 in Oklahoma City.

Tim

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I just dug up some highs here for the last several days, just wondering when we last reached 50F....during a time of year with upper 60s for an average high. Most days highs weren't anywhere near even 50.

Day.....High......Average High

8th......51.............69
9th......51
10th.....41
11th.....37
12th.....41
13th.....42
14th.....42
15th.....46
16th.....42
17th.....48.............66

The sun finally came out again yesterday(17th) after being gone here since the snow on the 10th. We're being robbed of the time of year with some of the nicest weather. Or paying for the 70s and 80s in February and March. Then again blizzard in April should have covered those.

 

[Jeff Duda]

The image below is updated daily on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet website (mesonet.agron.iastate.edu). I really enjoy looking at it to see trends in temperatures. You can clearly see how cold it's been in Ames relative to normal lately:

Here's the one for Blair, NE, that Mike alluded to:

 

[Jason Harris]

FL has continued to plunge . . . actually a record low-high for Orlando yesterday:
--
Record Report

Statement as of 05:25 PM EDT on October 17, 2009

... Record low maximum temperature set at Orlando international...

A daily record low maximum temperature of 72 degrees was set at
Orlando international today. This breaks the old record of 74 set in
1977.
--

Meanwhile the low last night was 48 in Melbourne--more like a winter temp than early Fall.
The first below 60 temp is usually Oct. 22, so we went quite below that (12 degrees):
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/wetdry/WetDry.htm

On the plus side, the air conditioner is off in my apartment. Didn't really get much notable convection ahead of the cold front--bit of a letdown.

Update:
Statement as of 05:14 PM EDT on October 18, 2009

... Record low maximum temperature set at Daytona Beach...

A daily record low maximum temperature of 66 degrees was set at
Daytona Beach today. This breaks the old record of 67 set in 1943.

Also on the 9PM news mention that Melbourne, FL also set a record low maximum of 68, breaking previous record of 72 in 1953 on this date. Nippy, actually had to put on a flannel shirt (though a light one) this evening.

 

[mikegeukes]

NWS Grand Rapids, Michigan
One of the Coldest Starts for October
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=grr&storyid=34380&source=0

NWS Gaylord, Michigan
Coldest October start in 60 years in Northern Michigan
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=apx&storyid=34401&source=0

NWS Omaha, Nebraska
Coldest Start to October
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=oax&storyid=34239&source=0

NWS North Platte, Nebraksa
Bitter Cold Start to October
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lbf/?n=2009oct2weeks

Mike

 

[Jayson Prentice]

Got a nice break from the 'cold' the past couple of days here in Iowa with temperatures into the 60s and actually seeing the sun. Everybody thinks it is such a warm up, but in reality we were only a few degrees above what the average is supposed to be!

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Another foot snowfall event today out around North Platte. Brady with 12 inches, Stapleton with 10.

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KLBF/0910221429.nwus53.html

[FONT=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]THIS EVENT WAS
ENOUGH TO PUSH KLBF OVER ITS ALL-TIME OCTOBER SNOWFALL RECORD.
RECORD EVENT REPORTS AND AN UPDATED WEB STORY WILL FOLLOW THIS
AFTN TO HIGHLIGHT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAGNITUDE OF THE EVENT.

[/FONT]Still stupid cold around here. Average high 65 now, about 38 outside with really cold rain.[FONT=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier] Will be interesting to see what happens with precip in eastern NE this evening and overnight as RUC and NAM have wanted to go rather strong with it...back in the pocket of sub 0c 850mb temps.
[/FONT]

 

[John Farley]

And record wet, too!

As of a few days ago, it was the second-coldest average October temperatures on record in St. Louis, although the warm days earlier this week have likely moved the average away from that.

Regardless of that, though, it is now officially the wettest October on record in St. Louis, and of course there is still more than a week to go and, the way the pattern looks, more October rain is a near certainty.

http://kamala.cod.edu/mo/latest.sxus73.KLSX.html

(Link is time-sensitive.)

 

[Jason Harris]

Back to higher temps again, even records:
--
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=MLB&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

CLIMATE...
ORLANDO BROKE THEIR RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY REACHING 89 DEGREES.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 88 SET IN 2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS.

 

[MatthewCarman]

It has been freezing cold here since the last system moved through. I heard parts of Colorado had around 25" of snow with that last storm. Crazy weather.

 

[MatthewCarman]

I saw on the news today that October for Iowa has been the 4th coldest and the 3d wettest we have ever had. Looks like we may be in the low 60's today before the cold front moves through. I will be sure to get outside and enjoy it.

 

[Ryan Wichman]

Here in Quincy, IL we just recorded the coldest October on record and the 4th wettest. That goes along with the coldest July and August ever recorded earlier this year. Data has been recorded here in Quincy since the late 1930's.

I know there are many people out there that do not enjoy the snow all that much, but I hope we don't see a warmer than average winter to balance out some of these cold months. Time will tell.

 

[John Farley]

In St. Louis, October this year was the wettest October on record, by nearly 4 inches:

New Record established this year: 12.38 inches
Old Record, from 1919: 8.52 inches
Normal for the month: 2.76 inches

It was also the fifth-coldest October on record, with an average temperature of 53.7, compared to the normal average temperature of 58.3. The coldest October on record was 1925, with an average that year of 51.4.

EDIT - Also it was the 4th wettest month of ANY month in St. Louis:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lsx&storyid=32982&source=0