Potential Great Plains Blizzard Sunday-Tuesday?

[Mark Farnik]

Sunday through Tuesday looks like a potentially active weather period for the Great Plains (Finally! I thought this ridge of high pressure and string of dry, sunny days alternated by even drier, windy days was NEVER going to die! )
It looks like a low pressure system is going to lift over Montana on Sunday, and be located in southwestern Kansas by Tuesday, deepening to 998 mb according to the latest models. On it's eastern side, it looks like a potential severe weather outbreak will occur in the warm sector from northeastern Nebraska to southeastern Kansas on Tuesday afternoon/evening. In the cold sector, there looks to be a good chance of a nasty blizzard which will encompass eastern Montana/the Dakotas/western Nebraksa/eastern and central Colorado from late Monday night to late Tuesday night before the low lifts off to the northeast and wreaks havoc in the Great Lakes.
I really hope this pans out, as we haven't had ANY precipitation in almost two months. We haven't seen rain or snow since the first week of October in the lower elevations of Colorado. It is getting desperately dry, and every time the mountains have gotten a good snow, we've gotten vicious downsloping winds that have blown anywhere from 40-80 mph and blew away even more of the topsoil. We need a good foot-two feet of wet snow to get the topsoil to stop blowing, replenish the water table and revive the crops, which are wilting from our recent lack of moisture and the unusual springlike warmth we've been basking in for over a month, so I say BRING IT ON!!!
Anyone else have thoughts on this?

 

[Danny Neal]

still a little far out by the time it hits my region but a quick glance at the temps and forecast and it shows a 25 degree drop in a matter of a day and almost 30 degree drop past that.....highs predicted to be in the upper 50s here til tuesday and then like a sledgehammer to the face they drop to 33 and then 28 by next thur n fri, like i said still far out and it will likely moderate but still its not something i enjoy thinking about, tomorrow ill be putting X-mas decorations up in shorts while a week from i could be shovelling snow with 25 layers on :rolls eyes: ......SPC mentions svr 4-8 day outlook from st louis or thereabouts down to new orleans and points east......probably an after dark event since it gets dark out at like 415 here now....:/ we have lucked out lately in the past couple of years with snow, i think maybe one big snow event a year for the last 4 years, milwaukee seems to have been getting the brunt of it, if this winter storm does materialize and if past storm patterns come to fruition then it would seem like heavy snow from milwaukee on north and a wintery mix for south MIL to CHI and all rain further south with some severe in the ohio valley, thats usually how they play out.....we shall see least this storm comes a week later than thanksgiving i cant imagine the hell it would cause if we had a 1 1/2 - 2 day sleet event in CHI on thanksgiving

 

[Joel Wright]

With such a strong cold push combined with very warm temps in place in the middle part of the country, I'd be surprised if a big storm system didn't develop. I'm thinking this will end up being a blizzard for the Dakotas, and maybe some of the front range areas of CO, WY, and MT. I think most of the snow will be combined to these areas. Looks like the rest of us will deal with a narrow swath of rain with the passage of the artic front.

Time will tell.

 

[rdale]

Tonight's gfs sort of went to hell with the system. It doesn't dig and lifts out to the ne quickly.

PREEPD:

DESPITE A TREND TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS...THE GFS APPEARS TO
CARRY AN OUTLIER SOLN IN THE NERN PAC EARLY IN THE MEDR PD BY
CARRYING A MUCH MORE SWLY H5 TROF OVER SWRN CAN/SWRN CONUS THAN
THE OTHER MODELS WHICH AGREE ON BUILDING MORE RIDGING IN THE NERN
PAC ATTM. THE AMPLITUDE THE GFS SHOWS WITH THE TROFFING OVER THE
NW ON DAY 3/SUN TAKES AWAY FROM THE TROFFING MOVING THRU THE N
CNTRL CONUS ATTM...WITH THE OTHER MODELS CONSISTENTLY DEEPER THAN
THE GFS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER...WITH ALL OF THE
OTHER MODELS AND THE 00Z NCEP ENS MEAN BUILDING THE RIDGE OVER THE
W COAST AFTER DAY 5/TUES WHILE THE GFS IS EXTREMELY SLOW CARRYING
THE LOW OUT OF THE NW.

 

[afischer]

Just like the new GFS, the 00Z Euro also pushes a cold front through the central plains Tuesday ahead of a less amplified upper trough. This is quite a flop from the 12Z runs of both models, which potentially looked rather tasty from a chaser's vantage point given a couple days of return flow. This is reminiscient of last year around this time, when I recall the models having flopped all over the place leading up to the Nov 27 event w.r.t. how deep the system would dig and the resultant tilt of the surface system.

 

[Andrew Sorce]

Regarless of the run to run differences, there will be a fairly significant cold snap for a good portion of the country from 11/30-12/4. There could certainly be some intense lake effect events on the horizon, you've gotta to love those Delta T's in late Nov/Early Dec. Wheres the guy that wanted thundersnow, I'm sure Erie or Ontario will produce something.

 

[rdale]

"there will be a fairly significant cold snap for a good portion of the country from 11/30-12/4."

I agree - but for some reason the CPC forecast only has slightly below normal for the western US in that timeframe...

 

[Marcus Opitz]

Kind of off topic, but here in central fl, we had a hint of flurries the other night??(rumor has it) I am currious to see how this winter shapes up.

 

[rdale]

The coldest temps I can find in central Florida a few nights ago were only in the low-mid 40's, I can't believe flurries fell in those numbers...

 

[Mark Farnik]

Getting back on topic...
It is beginning to look more and more likely that a significant, prolonged blizzard will strike the Front Range/ northern and central High Plains, beginning on Monday in Montana/northern Wyoming/the Dakotas, and spreading to southern Wyoming/western Nebraska/eastern Colorado on Tuesday afternoon as surface low pressure develops over southeastern Colorado, and finally letting up early on Thursday. While this system isn't going to be excessively wet, the excellent upper air dynamics and forecast 36 hours + period of snowfall could result in significant (6-24") amounts of snowfall over the aforementioned areas, and probably twice as much in the foothills and east facing slopes of the Rockies. The Artic airmass is going to make it just that much nastier. High temps aren't expected to climb above zero in the northern High Plains Monday through Wednesday, and down here in the central High Plains we'll be doing good to crack the teens. Add in the fact that a strong northerly wind is going to be associated with this storm and we're looking at some extremely bitter, frostbite inducing windchills between -10 and
-50 below zero for the duration of this storm.
It's starting to shape up to be a real doozy, a truly classic prairie blizzard. Which doesn't bother me a bit; we need the snow desperately and welcome it with open arms. I'll just have to bring the generator up to the house later this weekend so if we lose power (which we often do during big storms like this, being on REA) we'll be able to keep running the furnace and the refrigerators. We've got plenty of food in the pantry and backup water supplies in case the well pump freezes up (which it has in the past), so all that I have to do is wait for the storm to arrive and do its thing.

 

[Chris Vagasky]

The coldest temps I can find in central Florida a few nights ago were only in the low-mid 40's, I can't believe flurries fell in those numbers...

The flakes mixed with rain fell Tuesday night in the central Florida hometown of Walt Disney World, National Weather Service meteorologist John Pendergrast said.

 

[rdale]

Thanks for tracking that down Chris - I didn't think those conditions would support flurries in Florida!

 

[Chris Vagasky]

Nor did I. I was surprised when I first read the story on another message board. Florida got snow before Oklahoma. I haven't seen snow yet this year, and I probably won't until I return to Michigan next month.

 

[Joel Wright]

The only thing that looks impressive with this whole system is the amount of cold air coming in behind it. With the exception of the snow out west near the rockies and northern great plains, it looks like the rest of us will deal with a half-hearted attempt at convection with no snow at all to follow. Seems like a terrible waste of such a push of cold air to me. I've been waiting and hoping some additional shortwaves would rotate around the base of the trough and invigorate a decent storm for the midwest or eastern US, but nothing. Well there are, but they look very weak.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Mark, you've really got to stop posting these things cause everytime you do, we see nothing! LOL Bitter cold certainly looks good, but snowfall anywhere east of the mountains looks minimal unfortunately.