Mike Smith
EF5
After reading a storm chaser's plea on Twitter yesterday for a "good old fashioned Kansas storm chase," there may be an opportunity on Tuesday as part of a major event. Unfortunately, the storms will be moving rapidly and it will only be Kansas to the east of U.S. 81 if my thinking is correct.
First, the UKMET and ECMWF are quite a bit slower with the major trough than earlier versions. For comparison, I have posted at left the 21Z 500mb chart for April 26, 1991 (F-5 Wichita-Andover Tornado outbreak) and the UKMET for 18Z this Tuesday. As you can see it is considerably slower.
The ECMWF 18Z surface chart looks quite discouraging for Kansas but I wouldn't count things out, yet. I think there is a decent chance the moisture could surge NNW a bit farther than forecast. The 18Z NAM keeps the dry line 1-2 Kansas counties farther west than the previous two model runs.
Regardless of where the dry line sets up, Oklahoma, eastern KS and MO look like they could get clobbered by violent, long-track tornadoes. By Tuesday night, the event should spread from western Illinois to north Texas. This trough will be the "pattern changer," an event that stops the flow of troughs from the Pacific to the Central United States. Pattern chasers generally over-perform.
Finally, the Td's in New Mexico are forecast to be well below zero at this time. It is going to be a terrible wildfire situation Tuesday in the High Plains and Foothills. And, with the pattern change, I don't see any drought improvement anytime soon.
First, the UKMET and ECMWF are quite a bit slower with the major trough than earlier versions. For comparison, I have posted at left the 21Z 500mb chart for April 26, 1991 (F-5 Wichita-Andover Tornado outbreak) and the UKMET for 18Z this Tuesday. As you can see it is considerably slower.
The ECMWF 18Z surface chart looks quite discouraging for Kansas but I wouldn't count things out, yet. I think there is a decent chance the moisture could surge NNW a bit farther than forecast. The 18Z NAM keeps the dry line 1-2 Kansas counties farther west than the previous two model runs.
Regardless of where the dry line sets up, Oklahoma, eastern KS and MO look like they could get clobbered by violent, long-track tornadoes. By Tuesday night, the event should spread from western Illinois to north Texas. This trough will be the "pattern changer," an event that stops the flow of troughs from the Pacific to the Central United States. Pattern chasers generally over-perform.
Finally, the Td's in New Mexico are forecast to be well below zero at this time. It is going to be a terrible wildfire situation Tuesday in the High Plains and Foothills. And, with the pattern change, I don't see any drought improvement anytime soon.
