NEW - Forecast Simulator

[Tim Vasquez]

Now announcing Storm Forecast Simulator ($59). This software has been kept a tight secret this spring up until now during development, and is now announced for the first time today, May 4. So that Stormtrack folks can get first crack at it, it won't be listed on the Weather Graphics main page until mid-week.

Storm Forecast Simulator not only provides a controlled environment for honing your forecast skills, but also yields a tremendous warehouse of imagery and graphics for nearly every significant chase day in history (well, at least all the ones we considered significant with this batch of 232 days). For example, here's an image for May 14, 1986, showing the Windthorst TX supercell (click for an enlargement). Imagine having an animation of this storm's initiation 23 years ago:



And it's not just the big tornado days but an assortment of nonsevere storms, hailers, bust days, and null cases thrown in for good measure.

To order just click here:
http://www.weathergraphics.com/fcstsim/

A DVD drive on your computer is required since this set has about 4 GB of data. We expect to begin shipping this in a couple of days.

Tim

 

[Chris Hayes]

Very cool looking program there, Tim. That's on my list of things to buy Nothing like playing a game and honing your forecasting skills at the same time

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

Tim's Forecast Simulator arrived in the mail on Monday and I have thoroughly enjoyed it. This program is well put together and the chase cases are as good as it gets. I really enjoy the plethora of events and variety of setups. The layout and data are excellent and are challenging enough to test even the most experienced chasers/forecasters. I have nailed some forecasts and busted a few as well. Its a great learning curve and really pushes the forecaster to analyze real time data with persistent scrutiny.

I highly recommend this simulator for new and experienced chasers alike. With 232 events this simulator won't get old anytime soon. I spend at least an hour or two on any one event. This simulator is sure to help you get through the off season.

Excellent job Tim.
Forecast Simulator FTW!

 

[Dan Cook]

Just bought a copy; can't wait to check it out.

 

[Scott Hammel]

Just ordered a copy myself!

 

[D. Hayes]

Me too! Man this will help me learn so much easier that waiting for a storm to brew.

 

[David Goines]

Can any of yall that have this and have used it have any comments or reviews?
I'm looking to get it and I just want to make sure it's worth while.
Thanks!

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

Forecast Simulator has quickly become my new favorite chase related activity to do when I am not chasing. This product features 232 different cases that date back to 1979. With such a large dataset you don't have to worry about recognizing any case you might have previously done.

What makes FS so unique is the way it is set up. The forecast module is easy to understand and operate. You begin each day at 12z with surface and upper-air charts, as well as soundings. Each successive hour you receive a new surface chart and visible satellite image. At 00z you get new upper-air charts and soundings. Your first objective is to assess the severe threat and level (slight/moderate/high) and place a rectangular polygon on the target map. The earlier in the day you issue the threat, the better chance the chasers will have to make it to the target.

The second objective is to decided whether or not you should issue a watch and if it should be a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch. You only get to issue one risk area and one watch. As the event unfolds, severe reports begin to pop up on the target map and you will see the chasers icons change as they intercept storms/tornadoes. There is a key on the left that displays the overall stats of the chasers. At any point you can select a button to reveal the case date, and you can also read a summary of the event.

I quickly developed my own technique of using FS. I begin by printing out the surface chart to do a hand analysis. I issue my risk outlook at 13z, and I copy and paste the convective outlook text in MS Word and create a convective outlook for the event with a detailed discussion of the day's setup. I do this to compare with archived SWODYs to see if I analyzed the synoptic setup like the SPC did. I have begun issuing my own MDs about an our or so before I think a watch should be issued, however this isn't in the FS program, but something I do on my own. When its time to issue a watch I place the watch box in the area that would most be favorable for chasers. Since you can only issue one watch box, I often ignore another area of expected development in favor of the most chaseable storms. Each simulated case takes me between 1 to 2 hours.

This product really tests the users ability to forecast based on real time data, and brings back the art of short-fuse forecasting. To be successful at SF I believe its important to be able to do a hand analysis of surface charts and upper-air charts. Your dependence on satellite data is very important in determining convective initiation.

While SF is a huge hit, a homerun of sorts, it has a few misses. The biggest issue I have with it is the limited ability to issue watches. With only one watch box available its hard to cover an entire event. I would be pleased to see an update which would allow the user to issue more than one watch box. Also, on several cases the satellite region selected only covers a portion of the risk area. Often times the data doesn't cover the entire risk area and it limits one's ability to properly assess the entire threat. May 29, 2004 is an example. I would also like to have the ability to update the outlook and be able to upgrade or downgrade the threat as it becomes more apparent.

Still, SF is a great program and has really pushed my forecast ability. I have simulated about a dozen events so far and I still haven't scratched the surface. I will be playing with this simulator for years to come. I endorse this as a must have for any chaser, forecast or serious weather enthusiast who is looking for something to entertain and educate them. This will definately help me get through the winter when SDS is at its worst.

 

[Bryan Stokes]

Thank you Greg for the in-depth review! I'm still working my way through a couple of Tim's books. Once I have a better understanding of forecasting basics, this software is definitely on my list of things to buy.

Bryan

 

[Dan Cook]

Just got this today; one thing I noticed so far is that scrolling on the map is annoying. You can only do it using the keyboard I think.

 

[Dave Gore]

Received my copy today as well and so far, so good! I really enjoy the layout and it offers a lot to the community. Definitely a good purchase.

 

[Scott Hammel]

Received mine in the mail today just as I was walking out the door to work! Arrgh! I've gotten home now and have installed and started messing with it. Very user friendly as far as menu navigation and overall layout. I'm going to really start diving into it in the next week and will post up a full review once I am more familiar with it. Like it so far though!

 

[Joe beier]

I might have to look into this ... sounds awesome

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

This sounds like something I can really use. Is this available for us MAC users?

 

[Justin Wiley]

Based on some browsing and the reviews so far, I think I'm gonna get this. Looks really cool.