Models are showing a Chasers worst Fears

[Geoff Manikin]

no doubt that the GFS and its ensembles look incredibly discouraging, but there is some better news in the ECMWF. At 240 hours, it also has a trough coming into the west coast, but it doesn't have nearly as strong of an omega downstream over the central and eastern U.S. And the ensemble mean looks even more encouraging, with an overall pattern that looks potentially progressive beyond 240, with hope that the west coast trough will come out into the plains.

 

[Chris Hayes]

Geoff where can you get all this ECMWF info? I've only been able to find ECMWF computer models to 168 hours out.

 

[Cstok]

Here is the ECMWF 240 hrs out:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010051300!!/

Off topic... currently at 37,000 over Boise ID. Gotta love the inflight wifi!

 

[Chris Hayes]

Thanks for the link Cstok

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I will take this down time to regroup and look at some of the things I can improve on as we head into late May and June. My chase partner Joseoh Tyree made an excellent point yesterday. We always seem to have a couple of weeks or so even during active years where the pattern slows down in the middle of the season. 2008 looked to be a dud around mid May, but then a longwave trough sat over the western US around Memorial Day weekend and gave us several great tornado days. This season isn't over by a long shot. I am looking forward to systems not quite as strong as what we have seen so far.

 

[Geoff Manikin]

Geoff where can you get all this ECMWF info? I've only been able to find ECMWF computer models to 168 hours out.

the link to the deterministic forecasts has generously been provided already; the ensemble stuff is there too:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/

 

[Mikey Gribble]

This happens every year. You are inevitably going to get one or two week lulls in the action during the early and mid spring season. I don't worry about a ridge killing the season until we get into June. Its still early enough that this pattern will break down while we still have several weeks of chasing left. I just started looking at models last night, but I bet we have a decent setup within sight by the 24th or so. I expect to be chasing again before the end of May. Personally I could use the break right about now so I'm not too upset. Just my two cents.

 

[Kevin Crawmer]

I agree Mikey....also the 12z hints a little bit at some NW flow setups which wouldn't be too bad either. We will see.

 

[Chris Hayes]

Kevin, I saw that possible NW flow setups coming the week after next after a trough SUPPOSEDLY moves through the plains mid-late next week. I'm not too familiar with NW flow setups, same with upslope flow setups. Can you elaborate on what those are like? I'm not out to just see tornadoes. As long as I get to see some really good supercells in my first chasecation since '08 I'll be happy.

 

[David Goines]

Don't kid yourself. Stick a fork in 2010, it's done.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQCZ4YEoOhQ

Now, what's everyone's thought on Spring 2011? lol

*heavy and ridiculous sarcasm*

 

[Chris Hayes]

LOL David. One thing I've noticed about the GFS recently, especially the 12z run is that it loves to produce BIG pressure areas. For a while it was producing an extraordinarily large area of low pressur over the east. The ridge it was producing for a while that covered most of the US was a little too big for reality as well. I thought when they changed some of the aspects of that model it was supposed to fix some of it's problems. It's grasp of things seems to have worsened since it's physics were changed. IMO

 

[Mikey Gribble]

lol nice video. It would take me two weeks trying to put something like that together.

 

[David Goines]

haha yeah I thought I would throw together a video during my lunch break for this thread. lol
Even though I don't really think a short week (or two ) with no major storm system is anything to worry about...

 

[Patrick Martin]

LOL, great video! Darth Ridge has taken over the GFS and telling us to come to the dark side of forecasting.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Don't kid yourself. Stick a fork in 2010, it's done.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQCZ4YEoOhQ

Now, what's everyone's thought on Spring 2011? lol

*heavy and ridiculous sarcasm*

LOL - - this is the funniest video. Nice!!!

Chris ... NW flow isn't horrible, but definitely not my preference either. You have to change the way you attack and move with the storm. I've never really been successful myself (but that's not saying much). Plenty of people around here have caught some great stuff under NW flow aloft!