Models are showing a Chasers worst Fears

[jamesmseitz]

Was looking at GFS for the last few days and was unhappy to see the pattern. The Models are showing a Split Flow in the Jet Stream right about the 250 MB level. There were some troughing but as a whole the stearing currents will carry everything to the North over a ridge forming on the Plains.
I then Looked at the Lower levels levels and it seemed to be the same things.

There were some stronger systems riding up into Canada with good 10 Meter winds feeding them. GFS did not show any precip at all on these in the plain. I know GFS does not alway show precip well but there was nothing making me think there was any good days in there at all. Look at 5-10 event... No precip on the runs and well those were great days so I no that is not alway a good meter.

I am not going to say the dreaded 2 words that has happened in May last year but wanted to know what others were thinking on this. This goes not look good to me.

 

[Jason McKittrick]

ECMWF is a little more encouraging at least through day 10. Besides the GFS has not been doing so hot since they updated the model physics about a month ago. I have seen some variability in the GFS forecast, their have been a couple of runs in the last week or so that have looked far more interesting than today's solution, or purhaps that is wishful thinking since I was unable to chase on Monday.

 

[Chris Hayes]

I got a sick feeling looking at this run of the GFS and the last run of it. Makes me more and more determined to one day move to the plains. That way I wont have to worry about taking a chasecation. I just hope these runs are outliers. I'll be making the call on Friday or Saturday about my chasecation.

 

[MatthewCarman]

One thing that a less active pattern is good for is less rain in areas that are seeing flooding right now. TN/MS saw almost 20" of rain in some parts on the 1st and 2nd and Iowa will have some flooding with all of this rain we are getting. NWS saying 2-4" possible ontop of the 1+ inch of rain we had with the last system.

 

[Mark Blue]

I'm going to stop reading long range forecasts for tonight as well as looking at the models because it's leaving a pit in my stomach and that's the last thing I want with a chasecation coming up next week. I hope tomorrow's runs change my mind for the better.

 

[Jason Foster]

I'd be OK with a 2009 pattern....plenty of activity here on the East Coast...LOL. Since I decided (LOL...like it's a choice) to earn money rather than spend money this chase season, certainly appreciate a ridge pattern for the plains.

Whoops...did I just say the "R" word out loud.

 

[Dave Marshall]

Gaithersburg isn't that big, I bet we can find Jason's house. What's his car look like? Anybody else up for a TP Party?

I leave for OKC tomorrow at Noon. I'm not sold that we're busted yet, and I'm also not against the idea of chasing in Georgia. I did it for 6 years with great results. I will say though that the GFS has virtually *zero* run-to-run consistency beyond 100 hours the last week or two. I don't put much stock in it.

 

[Jeff Hawkins]

chasecation rule #1: all requested time off must be revocable and/or reschedulable. I learned that lesson after making a commitment last year at the start of May for the end of the month (based on statistics saying that's the peak of the severe weather "season" and my best chance at success), including airfare and car rental for 2 weeks...only to watch that death ridge form and persist right through the whole time period. I got a nice suntan at least.

 

[jshields]

i know you have to take the model forecasts that far out with a grain of salt, but actually the gfs has shown the same r&*ge for several days now lasting all the way through hour 384. i too am getting that bad feeling......

 

[Connor McCrorey]

June 2009 heated up, after the May pattern looked to be the ridge to end all ridges. While May may be done, and even that isn't set in stone, the season's not over yet.

 

[Paul Knightley]

It doesn't look great on the models, I agree - but I think there may be some local surprises to be had next week, with an upper trough edging into the Plains, albeit not a potent one. The GWO is undergoing a large orbit at the moment, and may well head towards octants 8-1 later next week or into the weekend. If this is the case, we might see the Pacific jet collapse into a large western US trough, but this is very much speculation!!

 

[Mike Peregrine]

A couple weeks ago the mid to long rangers looked zonal and folks were getting concerned, but we've still managed to continue chasing ... I wouldn't put a ton of faith into them at this point. Nothing can be as bad as last year (for me anyway).

 

[Chris Hayes]

FWIW the GFS shows the ridge breaking down toward the end of it's period on the latest run. FWIW.

 

[jamesmseitz]

June 2009 heated up, after the May pattern looked to be the ridge to end all ridges. While May may be done, and even that isn't set in stone, the season's not over yet.

I agree completely.... June last year was great. By no means do I think the whole season is done..... I am just sick to think May doesn't look to good as of right now.

As for the one who likes this pattern who posted in this...... retrobution should be swift , And you call yourself a chaser Just kidding

 

[Michael Riedl]

The 0z GFS is showing a pretty potent Omega Block from hours 204 on.....eventually it shows the ridge breaking down but this is not looking that great right now.