Late Feb - Early March parade of snowstorms?

[Chris Carter]

The first series seems have moved already across the north plains into the midwest. Its looks like a second one is on track to move out of the rockies on the 24th and impact locations south of the first one. The Euro and NAM seem to want to close off the low rather early once it comes out into Kansas while the GFS is a bit further south and more rain than snow across the Mississippi Valley and closes off the low in Arkansas. My gut goes with the Euro and NAM, while the NAM maybe overdoing the QPF a swath of 6" should be common from North Central Kansas to Lincoln, Omaha and eastward across IA before moving into the Ohio Valley.

Below is the 12z NAM for 00z Thursday:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_p24_084m.gif
Next is the 18z NAM for the same time 00z Thursday:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_p24_078m.gif

The next systems is more tricky, as the Euro is the first to pick it up, i don't have any slides for it, its too far out for the NAM to pick it up but the GFS was hinting at this too, though its 12z run has pushed it further south and much weaker.
Varying runs from the 0Z run of the GFS for the 1st of March:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_192m.gif
to the 06z run:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_192m.gif
to the 12z run:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_180m.gif

I'll try to get graphics from the Euro, but it seems March will come in like a Lion.

 

[RMacDonald]

My Smartmodel output is just coming on board, starting to see early results of it. Right now high points for snow or Manhattan, KS with 5.8", Topeka 3.3", Kansas City at 1.9", these totals should update better as we get closer. Also tracking the potential for the severe weather threat down in the MO/AR/TN areas. Picking up on Thunderstorms throughout the area on the 24/25.

 

[jmyhren]

It seems the firm re-establishment of the Greenland block will keep the pattern in place for the near future, at least through next week. The good news is as gulf temperatures continue to trend higher as we move closer to meteorological Spring and farther from winter, if the block continues to hang on, convective activity will become more energized, and will continue to move further north. The bad news for those in points north of KC/St Louis/Indianapolis/Chicago is more snow and cold. The La Nina with the Greenland Block has made for a record winter here in the upper midwest. It can stop now in my humble opinion.