Katrina eastward shift

Just saw the 0300Z update and they've shifted Katrina's track eastward about 15 miles. This takes it 21 miles east of New Orleans according to their path.

Though this would spare New Orleans the higher winds, others have pointed out that it's just this scenario that sends Lake Pontchartrain into the city.

Tim
 
I don't know which is a better scenario the winds or the flooding. Historically, most deaths from tropical storms come from flooding.
 
The eye is fairly large so a track slightly east of NO could still put the city in the western eyewall... a scenario that is the most feared.
 
Yeah, the latest hour of radar still suggests a NNW movement.

Looks pretty certain that the LOOP Terminal is going to get hit by the western eyewall in a couple of hours. It's only 70 miles away and the current movement will bring a direct hit.

Tim
 
Main dynamic model consensus is right between GFDL and NHC track, though the center is currently farther east than it should be at this time. Im gunning for 5 miles east of Barataria Bay, LA.
 
It's sort of surreal how the media has breathed this huge sigh of relief, as if an oblique hit from a full Cat 4 is nothing to worry about. :lol:

Just shows to go ya that it's all relative.
 
I will be VERY surprised if post-event analysis indicates that this is a cat 4 at landfall. Latest recon shows 921mb... The eye looks nothing like it did earlier, and there's been a severe reduction in the quality of the IR imagery over the entire western 1/2 of the storm.
 
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