Invest 94l

[John Peters]

Tropical Storm Felix

The tropical wave about 600 miles to the east of Trinidad is expected to enter more favorable conditions for development later today and tomorrow. The feature has displayed sporadic thunderstorm activity over the last few days; however it appears that a small LLC associated with a fairly consistent little ball of convection has persisted this morning. The models are doing absolutely nothing with this thing, but i think it has the potential to become a TD by tomorrow.

 

[John Peters]

The system appears to have developed a pretty sustained convection core and decent outflow. I'm assuming the recon mission scheduled for later today will determine whether the system has become a depression or even TS Felix.

Model resolutions don't seem to be handling this thing too well, but i have a feeling we will develop a better numerical understanding once the recon flight samples the system.

 

[HAltschule]

The system has organized rapidly this morning. There is a huge flare-up of convection and plenty of circulation. I would expect this to be classified as a TD this afternoon or tonight. The Hurricane Hunter's are currently enroute and in the vicinity of the tropical system. They will have the ultimate say...but we are definitely seeing something develop whether it is classified now or not.

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
910 AM AST FRI AUG 31 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EASTOF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS COULD BE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO CONFIRM IF A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE QUICK ACTION...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD iSLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

 

[Jim Bishop]

I was really surprised NHC didn't declare this system a depression at 10am. It's now 1pm and it looks like it's close to being a Tropical Storm. Either way we'll know in a couple hours. But it just seems like it would be better to have it declared a depression this morning to give residents of Trinidad and the Windward Islands more time to respond to watches and warnings. I say this because most people don't read the Special Statements or Tropical Weather Outlooks. The system's certainly not life threatening at this time, so I suppose it's to not a huge issue.

 

[Derrick Herndon]

AccuWeather thought it was a depression. They "issued" an advisory on it at 11 am with winds of 35 mph and a pressure of 988 mb. They were only off by 21 mb since recon just now found 1009 mb. Actually I have to think that was a typo. Surely they meant 1008 mb?

 

[Jim Bishop]

AccuWeather thought it was a depression. They "issued" an advisory on it at 11 am with winds of 35 mph and a pressure of 988 mb. They were only off by 21 mb since recon just now found 1009 mb. Actually I have to think that was a typo. Surely they meant 1008 mb?

Yes I saw that. So I guess they now they think they have the authority to declare when a system becomes a tropical depression? Ha.

For a short while around noon today they also had a video online where a meteorologist actually said, "Reconnaisance found a closed circulation", and this was at least 2 hours before the plane actually reached the system. THAT is simply rediculous and unprofessional.

 

[John Peters]

as of 5PM it's now TD six. Intensity estimates seem unexciting (maxing out at 75 kts within the next five days)

 

[Justin E. Reed]

sniff sniff, I smell Felix. I guess the U.S. will have a quiet summer, with a landfall in the fall. This summer is reminicent of the summer of 95, i.e. Opal in October

 

[John Peters]

as of 8AM AST we have Felix with sustained winds of 45 and min. central pressure of 1004 mb. (the title of this thread should probably be changed to reflect so). I must say the satellite portrayal looks pretty good this morning, with cold-topped convection wrapping nicely around what appears to be the center. The storm was upgraded based on Dvorak estimates, and i have a feeling (based on the sat appearance) that today's recon aircraft will find winds substantially higher than 45 mph.