• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

Hurricane forecasting question

Joined
Dec 4, 2003
Messages
697
Location
Norman, OK
Hi guys, I've got a question about forecasting rainfall in hurricanes. I know that rainfall rates are at least partially dependent on the hurricane's speed, but I've forgotten what the specific numbers are. Does anybody know what the equation is? Also, does the same equation work after the hurricane is inland, or is it then more dependent on variables like terrain, distance inland and those sort of things?
Thanks, y'all!!
Angie
 
One base rule of thumb is to take 100 and divide by the forward speed of the storm. So a storm moving at 10 mph, would have a max rainfall of around 10 inches or so. Granted, this would not take into account local terrain or storm size, but it can be used as a rough first guess. I'd like to believe the local NWS office have more advanced algorithms that take into account their local area.
 
I've be VERY hesitant about using any forward motion - rainfall estimates, given the many factors involved in rainfall accumulation. For example, if two storms are moving at the same speed, but the first is twice the size of the other, you're going to have very different rainfalls (probably a factor of 2 difference). Topography also plays a big role in rainfall, as evidenced by Mitch's effect on Honduras and surrounding areas. In addition, the coverage and extent of intense convection would significantly affect the total rainfall. For example, there was very little precip in the western 1/2 of Ivan last year, and even Katrina had considerably less precip in the western 1/2.
 
John, those are the numbers I was thinking of...thanks!!
I know that just gives a very rough estimate at landfall, but it is enough for a head's up guess. Topography and size play a much larger role after the storm is inland and speed of movement may play a role in training...or am I off base on this? The western side is typically the "weaker" side of the storm, but isn't that really more for wind? I wouldn't think that would necessarily directly affect rainfall amounts.
Feedback much appreciated!!! Thanks, guys!!!
Angie
 
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