Andy Wehrle
EF5
I have heard conflicting arguments on how much negative impact VBV really has on tornado potential. I'm no expert, but it seems to me the answer is contingent on the amount of VBV and where it is in the column. In my armchair observations of forecast soundings and event verification results over the last few years, days with backing somewhere from 700mb to 500mb seldom produce long-lived classic supercells with photogenic tornadoes, although with strong veering up to 700mb and favorable thermodynamics they may produce shorter-lived tornadoes up to EF2 in strength.
The bigger question to me is what about a particular trough causes it to have VBV issues, and is it something that can be picked up on in the medium range in order to avoid sounding the "OMG Armageddon tornado outbreak in 5 days" alarm bells?
The bigger question to me is what about a particular trough causes it to have VBV issues, and is it something that can be picked up on in the medium range in order to avoid sounding the "OMG Armageddon tornado outbreak in 5 days" alarm bells?
