Hurricane BERTHA

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Nov 28, 2004
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this would be the earliest and the fartherest east development on record.. Hurricane Bertha held that in 1996... but was further west and was named on july 4th..

nhc seems to want to carry it west of the gfs model which finds a weakness in the ridge.. still early so will see what happens from here.... looks like it could be a busy season ahead...
 
well, looking at the 12z models, looks like they will be upgrading it to bertha with the next advisory...


WHXX01 KWBC 031354
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1354 UTC THU JUL 3 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080703 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080703 1200 080704 0000 080704 1200 080705 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.1N 24.2W 13.6N 27.1W 14.3N 30.0W 15.2N 32.6W
BAMD 13.1N 24.2W 13.9N 26.7W 15.0N 29.4W 16.5N 32.1W
BAMM 13.1N 24.2W 13.8N 26.8W 14.8N 29.5W 16.2N 32.1W
LBAR 13.1N 24.2W 13.8N 26.7W 14.8N 29.7W 15.9N 33.0W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 51KTS 57KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 51KTS 57KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080705 1200 080706 1200 080707 1200 080708 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.3N 35.1W 19.7N 41.1W 23.0N 46.1W 24.9N 49.0W
BAMD 18.2N 35.3W 21.5N 41.8W 25.5N 44.2W 28.2N 41.7W
BAMM 17.8N 35.1W 21.0N 41.3W 24.1N 45.5W 26.4N 46.6W
LBAR 17.2N 36.4W 20.3N 42.9W 22.9N 46.8W 25.3N 46.9W
SHIP 64KTS 71KTS 73KTS 65KTS
DSHP 64KTS 71KTS 73KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.1N LONCUR = 24.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 21.8W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 20.2W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 30NM

$$
NNNN
 
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica] As of 11am the tropical depression has been upgraded to tropical storm Bertha. This is the farthest east for such an early season tropical storm as far as records go back. Too bad this storm will never get to this side of the atlantic as the weakness in the subtropical ridge in the mid-atlantic that the models have been advertizing for days will keep Bertha far at sea. As many have said this is a real favorable sign of an active atlantic season to come. This type of formation usually doesn't show up until well into August. This is a little strange as it was a hurricane named Bertha in 1996 which developed near 40W on July 5th of that year which was historically the earliest formation that far east.[/FONT]
 
BERTHA has formed

The record early developed BERTHA is heading west/northwest from 13.3N 24.7W as of Thurs, July 3, at 11am EDT.

It seems, from early data, that an intersection will be reached maybe next Tue./Wed. when possible weakening in the subtropical ridge could allow a curve into the Central Atlantic. At that time, if strong, will likely turn more north, but if weaker at that time, it could steer more westward. Either way, it is likely that this storm will miss land and head more to the north.

It will be interesting to watch and I hope you all post your thoughts about its track past the middle of next week.
 
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I believe there is some history of early African coast storms to indicate a potentially busy season.

Maybe Jim or Richard can respond.

Warren
Warren.
An early season African seedlings that become tropical depressions or tropical storms is usually an ominous sign of an active atlantic season. It does not necessarly mean a lot of U.S. landfalls but it should be an active season in numbers of storms.
 
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica] As of 11am the tropical depression has been upgraded to tropical storm Bertha. This is the farthest east for such an early season tropical storm as far as records go back. Too bad this storm will never get to this side of the atlantic as the weakness in the subtropical ridge in the mid-atlantic that the models have been advertizing for days will keep Bertha far at sea. As many have said this is a real favorable sign of an active atlantic season to come. This type of formation usually doesn't show up until well into August. This is a little strange as it was a hurricane named Bertha in 1996 which developed near 40W on July 5th of that year which was historically the earliest formation that far east.[/FONT]


i am starting to wonder about that weakness though jim... looks like with each run of the hurricane models and the globals that it shifts further west... the models early on were showing a big turn north and then almost northeast in some cases... now they look flatter and further west... may get closer than first thought, but something to watch and wait to see what happens... you are right though, this is a possibly a good sign for a busy season..
 
The record early developed BERTHA is heading west/northwest from 13.3N 24.7W as of Thurs, July 3, at 11am EDT.

It seems, from early data, that an intersection will be reached maybe next Tue./Wed. when possible weakening in the subtropical ridge could allow a curve into the Central Atlantic. At that time, if strong, will likely turn more north, but if weaker at that time, it could steer more westward. Either way, it is likely that this storm will miss land and head more to the north.

It will be interesting to watch and I hope you all post your thoughts about its track past the middle of next week.


like i said in another post, i think that possible turn north is looking at the very least in some question right now... the models are shifting westward with each run and hav flattened out a bit from their big turn north and northeast... i am not saying by any means that i think it is coming all the way across, but the possibility of that is certainly becoming an option... way to early to know for sure, but something to watch.. looks like a busy season ahead..
 
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

If you would, look at that. Doesn't that look extremely healthy? I assume the more west it heads, to warmer water, the more exponential growth it will have =) Ha I am just getting excited, don't mind me. Oh I believe Jim above me mentioned a low forming, would that pull or push the tropical system?

EDIT: Last infrared scan looks sick as if it has an eye =), 16:15 UTC but then it was gone...
 
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The overall convective organization of Bertha looks pathetic this afternoon on IR imagery. This probably due to the system entering cooler sst's and a more stable airmass. A more westward movement would allow for more intesification, this is one reason tropical storms are rare in this region this early in the season.
 
T.S. Bertha tonight looks to me like a weakening system. Over the past several hours all you see is convective bursts of convection near the center. with no real banding with the deeper convection. I would not be surprised to see the storm get downgraded to T.D. sometime within 24 hours. Because of the large circulation of this system the weakening process will be slower than usual in this area this time of year. With a weakening storm the track will tend to be more west than NW.
 
well the 0z GFS has shifted much further west than any run before.. it now has bertha hitting the carolinas- looks like the same area bertha hit in '96... of course still a long way off and the models are gonna change each run, but they have shifted west all day.. interesting weak ahead..


gfs_85v_276m.gif
 
As she comes into the warmer water Bertha should gain some organization
and intensity with each passing day. The buoys off the N and S Carolina shores
indicate water temps in the low to mid 80's.
The Hurricane center is saying the water under the storm is gaining
1 degree of temp. as it moves westward.

An eye of sorts seems to be forming so I look for it intensify some over
the next few days.

If she encounters some shear in the next few days this could
hold her back some. This looks likely.

Right now it looks like she could head North into cooler waters
in a few days. Missing the U.S. But we all know that things
can change.

Either way I dont think she will be a real barn burner if she
makes landfall. Heavy rains etc.



Tim
 
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