High Risk in November?

[Jason McKittrick]

The 6Z Swody 1 just came out and there is a large high risk for the central and southern Mississippi River valley, with a 25% hatched tornado area centered roughly on Paducha, KY. Can anyone remember the last November high risk? I can't recall ever seeing one. I suppose I should't be suprised though, with tropical storm gamma forming in the Caribean.

 

[Dan Robinson]

November 10, 2002 had a high risk from Ohio and West Virginia down to Mississippi. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that was the largest High Risk area ever outlined on the SWODY1:

http://wvlightning.com/2002/nov10/day1.gif

 

[Michael Auker]

The last one I remember was on November 11, 2002. Two other high risks that I know of were also on November 15 two years in a row, 1988 and 1989. It happens occasionally.

 

[Dan Robinson]

After chasing for 12 years I'm not surprised at all by this. In fact I think it is actually unusual for there *not* to be some type of big event during the October-November time frame.

 

[Robert Dewey]

A HIGH risk in NOV is definitely rare, as is a storm going from 995MB to ~975MB in 6-12HRS.

If it's obvious that forcing will overcome instability issues further north and east in northern IN/OH (maybe southern lower MI? :lol, the MDT and HIGH risks might be expanded accordingly. My guess is that we will be looking at a rather large derecho (see my Map Room posts).

 

[Jason McKittrick]

The last one I remember was on November 11, 2002. Two other high risks that I know of were also on November 15 two years in a row, 1988 and 1989. It happens occasionally.

I'll understand if you don't remember, but did the other high risks you mentioned verify?

 

[Michael Auker]

Tee hee! November 15 of 1988 and 1989 featured two of the largest November severe weather outbreaks ever. Arkansas was hard hit with numerous tornadoes in 1988, and 1989 featured the Huntsville Alabama F-4 which killed 21 people.

I'll understand if you don't remember, but did the other high risks you mentioned verify?

 

[GPhillips]

1988
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin-spc/getsev...ay=15&Year=1988

1989
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin-spc/getsev...ay=15&Year=1989

I think they verified.

 

[nickgrillo]

Not at all surprised by the HIGH risk issuance... The overall synoptic setup is highly favorable for violent supercells and tornadoes. Of course, the high storm speeds (thinking average will be 50-60MPH) will increase the length of any potential tornadoes track...

If it's obvious that forcing will overcome instability issues further north and east in northern IN/OH (maybe southern lower MI? Laughing), the MDT and HIGH risks might be expanded accordingly. My guess is that we will be looking at a rather large derecho (see my Map Room posts).

I personally think the HIGH risk could be extended a bit further north in later outlooks, and the MDT could very well likely be extended further north into southern MI. While the 5% probabilties for tornadoes exists all the way into central MI, I think the threat for tornadoes in MI appears pretty reasonable once the warm front pushes into the region during the 21-00Z timeframe.

 

[Kevin Bowman]

November 10, 2002 had a high risk from Ohio and West Virginia down to Mississippi. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that was the largest High Risk area ever outlined on the SWODY1:

http://wvlightning.com/2002/nov10/day1.gif

This comes close

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/even...0/day1_2000.gif

 

[Justin Turcotte]

A HIGH RISK is a rare event... period.

 

[Karen Politte]

A HIGH RISK is a rare event... period.

I guess it's all relative, really. Having chased during 2003 - I guess I came to regard High Risks as just something that "happens". A certain situation coming to bear seems to meet the criteria for issuing a High Risk - therefore they do it. It doesn't immediately superimpose a blueprint of an upcoming wedge on my brain. If there's one scenario I hate to chase almost above all else - it's dynamic High Risk days.

Also - SPC have relaxed their criteria for those Public Severe Weather Outlooks - so they don't really get my blood going the way they used to.

I think the rarest phenomena from SPC related to severe convective weather that I have ever seen and will ever see will be one of those good ol' PDS Severe T-Storm boxes. Now they're always fun to play with! :wink:

KR

 

[Andy Wehrle]

There have been high risks in December and January, too. Also February! Through my research, September is the only month to never have an SPC/SELS high risk.

http://sphs.angeltowns.net/spcproductarchi...22302otlkC.html

http://sphs.angeltowns.net/spcproductarchi...12199otlkB.html

 

[Jason McKittrick]

It's pretty rare for those winter season high risks to include South Bend and Gary, Indiana is it not.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

That's true...

Last high risk to include that area in the fall was October 24, 2001.

November 10, 2002's extended pretty far north when it was expanded for the 01Z outlook.

On this date in 1989...