High Risk Friday???

[Andy Wehrle]

Originally posted by Mike Mezeul II
personally, i have better luck during moderate risks than high risks...high risks, the storms seem to be traveling at incredible rates and turn into hp beasts quickly...

That's because SPC issues the risk categories based on the threat to Joe Public who is living in or driving into the path of the storms with no idea what's coming; not on how good the chasing will be. What is more dangerous, a classic supercell producing slow-moving tornadoes that are visible for miles in all directions, or an HP moving at 50 MPH with a shroud of torrential rain and baseball-size hail making the tornado invisible until it's almost on top of you?

 

[Mike Mezeul II]

That's because SPC issues the risk categories based on the threat to Joe Public who is living in or driving into the path of the storms with no idea what's coming; not on how good the chasing will be. What is more dangerous, a classic supercell producing slow-moving tornadoes that are visible for miles in all directions, or an HP moving at 50 MPH with a shroud of torrential rain and baseball-size hail making the tornado invisible until it's almost on top of you?

oh i agree 100%...i was just saying on the basis of chasing wise

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I would personally like to thank you all for this thread...as Friday now looks...quite unattractive. :lol:

Personally...I already took the day off work...so, I may just go anyways. I'll check the morning runs before leaving and such...but I'd rather be there and have something unexpected form, than sit here and be lazy all day and waste a day off, which I wont have again until mid next week.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by APritchard
I would personally like to thank you all for this thread...as Friday now looks...quite unattractive. :lol:

Personally...I already took the day off work...so, I may just go anyways. I'll check the morning runs before leaving and such...but I'd rather be there and have something unexpected form, than sit here and be lazy all day and waste a day off, which I wont have again until mid next week.

Well, those negative trends in the NAM are actually good for our region come SAT and SUN... I personally don't have the funds to be chasing all the way over in NE (the original target), so I prefer things closer to the lakes anyway.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

In a year of remarkablely bad model performance, I would have a tough time trusting a 24-hr forecast, much less a >=72 hr forecast. The numerical models have been performing very poorly lately, so I'd take all model forecasts with a big grain of salt. This mentality appears to be paying off, since the 'high risk' for Friday will most definitely not pan out. I shouldn't really say that though, since I just got done saying that model performance is horrible LOL.

EDIT: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KDDC/0506022046.fxus63.html At least gives us some hope of a brighter future... The forecaster who occassionally writes the "extended" part of the AFD is awesome! LOL He/She almost always mentions global circulations and patterns, and at times it seems more like an HPC Global climate discussion then a local forecast discussion, but he/she always mentions the effects of the global circulation on the local sensible weather. Cool stuff.

 

[Anthony Petito]

Man... Not even a MOD risk for today (atleast... not yet).

All thanks to THIS thread!

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Well, a day late...but not necessarily a dollar short! :wink:

 

[Howard Robinson]

OO MAN, I wish I was down there right now.

Ponders WHY did I have to marry a Canadian

 

[Chris Allington]

Well...DRIVE!! lol... goood luck to all today and looks like i dont have to move at all....

 

[Mike Johnson]

Well I don't have the "special permission" required to post in the
forecasting section so I guess I'll post here. I'm not overly impressed
with today's chase situation despite the high risk. It's not so much
the instability (which is insane) but the area of the chase. Once you
get east of I-35 the vegitation and landscapes are too varied and
it makes for dangerous and difficult chasing. Since the storms will
likely be moving at 40 mph+ the game may be to find a location
offering the best (clear) NE route. The other issues are the slow development of surface features as of 11:50 AM (CDT) time. I'd
like to see more dynamic surface action soon to pinpoint a target. Everyone be extra careful today. OK looks prime for a big
event in the daylight hours.

Mike

 

[Marko Korosec]

Ohh lucky you guys there

Wish we could get smth like that here

Good luck to all chasers out there! 8)

 

[Howard Robinson]

Originally posted by Chris Allington
Well...DRIVE!! lol... goood luck to all today and looks like i dont have to move at all....

If only I chould, stuck at work right now and by the time I got down there it would be all over. :cry: