High Risk Friday???

Since I don't have access to post in the target area, I wanted post something here about Friday. All I have to say is WOW!!! Latest NAM looks really good. Painting out around 5 thousand Cape over much or Neb and into northern Kansas. Helicity is good over that same area as well. Td's pushing 70+, making for low LCL's. Mid Level flow at 40 to 50 kts. Sfc low near 992, could get stronger... Nice Low level jet around 30 to 35 kts. owing to around 2 to 300 SRH... Nice upper level jet nosing in from the west, along with an increasingly negative tlited trough. The cap will be strong, but with that much convergence, it should break by afternoon. Overnight MCS will likely lay down boundries as well. If this pattern holds, look for SPC to issue a high risk on Friday for much of NEB, southern S. Dakota, and perhaps Norther Kansas. Get on the right storm and you should see something nice....

Thursday should be good too in western and southwestern Neb...I should yeild a tornado day, but right now, the better day could be Friday when everything should come together...
 
Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if they do issue a high risk, and I've talked with numerous other chasers on FRI, and they were all talking about the possibility of a high risk as well. Everything looks to be coming together for an outbreak, but unfortunetely, I can't leave Detroit until SAT. SAT looks pretty good too, but it appears that FRI will be the main show...
 
If the SPC doesn't issue a high risk, someone's not reading their maps right.

I just ran all the ETA figures through an excel sheet I whipped together with duct tape and bits and pieces of information from the internet and a few meteorology books I have lying around. It pumps out a number between 0 and 10 (which family members have dubbed the Cylkowski Scale), and Friday is going to be an 8.02 with an EHI of 7.1 for extreme Southeastern Nebraska. If I've ever learned anything from listening to chasers and from the stuff we get from spotter meetings, the setup on Friday is going to be epic. Jet stream, lift, moisture, shear, the whole works.

If only I weren't in college right now, I'd phone a few other people, get my car packed and drive to extreme SE Nebraska right now and get ready.
 
Originally posted by nickgrillo
Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if they do issue a high risk, and I've talked with numerous other chasers on FRI, and they were all talking about the possibility of a high risk as well. Everything looks to be coming together for an outbreak, but unfortunetely, I can't leave Detroit until SAT. SAT looks pretty good too, but it appears that FRI will be the main show...

SPC's Day 4/5 discussion (6/3-4) shows that they expect these strong storms on both days. So... Saturday might be just as interesting as Friday.
 
Originally posted by Aric Cylkowski

If only I weren't in college right now, I'd phone a few other people, get my car packed and drive to extreme SE Nebraska right now and get ready.

Sounds like you're camping out for Star Wars!
 
I just looked back on the Skew-T from the 5/22/04 event (otherwise known as the day the Hallam 2.5 mile wide F4 kicked up). Looking at the numbers and everything else, it looks like a repeat.
 
Originally posted by Aric Cylkowski
I just looked back on the Skew-T from the 5/22/04 event (otherwise known as the day the Hallam 2.5 mile wide F4 kicked up). Looking at the numbers and everything else, it looks like a repeat.
Great...you just jinxed it...probably will be a capola bustola now!!!
 
Originally posted by Anthony Petito+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Anthony Petito)</div>
<!--QuoteBegin-nickgrillo
Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if they do issue a high risk, and I've talked with numerous other chasers on FRI, and they were all talking about the possibility of a high risk as well. Everything looks to be coming together for an outbreak, but unfortunetely, I can't leave Detroit until SAT. SAT looks pretty good too, but it appears that FRI will be the main show...

SPC's Day 4/5 discussion (6/3-4) shows that they expect these strong storms on both days. So... Saturday might be just as interesting as Friday.[/b]

Got a link to that?
 
Originally posted by nickgrillo+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(nickgrillo)</div>
Originally posted by Anthony Petito@
<!--QuoteBegin-nickgrillo

pretty good too, but it appears that FRI will be the main show...


SPC's Day 4/5 discussion (6/3-4) shows that they expect these strong storms on both days. So... Saturday might be just as interesting as Friday.

Got a link to that?[/b]

You have a PM.
 
Friday/Saturday

After the quiet Mid and late May I have had here in east central Iowa I am ready to do some SERIOUS chasing Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday...(I'll actually have some $$ this time) woopi! LOL :)
Pretty early in my opinion to be discussing a high risk for Friday but I am very pleased with what I have been reading and am pretty sure (90%) that supercells will be plentiful during Thursday through Sunday..
 
This results in a no-chase weekend for me...fiance's birthday on friday, and I have a wedding that I'm doing the sound tech. part on Saturday. Someone have a shoulder to cry on?
 
Author Message
Edward Ballou Posted: Tue May 31, 2005 2:54 pm Post subject:

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This results in a no-chase weekend for me...fiance's birthday on friday, and I have a wedding that I'm doing the sound tech. part on Saturday. Someone have a shoulder to cry on?

I will join with you Edward....The family vaction starts Friday morning...I will be heading south into TX.. :cry:
 
Originally posted by Anthony Petito+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Anthony Petito)</div>
Originally posted by nickgrillo+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(nickgrillo)
<!--QuoteBegin-Anthony Petito
@
<!--QuoteBegin-nickgrillo

pretty good too, but it appears that FRI will be the main show...


SPC's Day 4/5 discussion (6/3-4) shows that they expect these strong storms on both days. So... Saturday might be just as interesting as Friday.

Got a link to that?[/b]

You have a PM.[/b][/quote]


Can I get that link too? :)
 
Originally posted by Anthony Petito+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Anthony Petito)</div>
<!--QuoteBegin-nickgrillo
Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if they do issue a high risk, and I've talked with numerous other chasers on FRI, and they were all talking about the possibility of a high risk as well. Everything looks to be coming together for an outbreak, but unfortunetely, I can't leave Detroit until SAT. SAT looks pretty good too, but it appears that FRI will be the main show...

SPC's Day 4/5 discussion (6/3-4) shows that they expect these strong storms on both days. So... Saturday might be just as interesting as Friday.[/b]

I am also interested too

EDIT: Kinda early to speculate on a high risk, but will be more well defined on later model forecasts and the such.
 
After fixing my calculator and plugging the numbers back in, it appears that SW Iowa looks very good, while extreme SE Nebraska looks pretty good as well. Of course everyone, take this with a grain of salt.
 
Holy crap! I'm tempted to jump on a plane and spend the weekend down there.
 
Probably won't get to do any chasing Friday due to work, but shoudl Saturday be interesting I'll be out...
 
Friday is looking very interesting right now, especially over eastern Nebraska. The H7 temps are still a bit of a concern, but it's still a good ways out...we'll see how the coming model runs shape it up.


Ben
 
This is too weird

I told everyone I was leaving South Carolina on Thursday morning to go chasing. When they asked me where I was going, I said, "I'm not sure, but prob in Oklahoma north to Iowa. This was 6 DAYS ago!! Just had this feeling about those days and that area. Wish me luck - this is my first chase. It's a long drive from here, but I figure I can make it up there by Friday noon. Anybody need a ride on the way? South Carolina - Atlanta - Nashville - St. Louis - Kansas City - Lincoln, NE. Anyone have any idea where the central point might be?[/b]
 
Re: This is too weird

Originally posted by SteveCarter
I told everyone I was leaving South Carolina on Thursday morning to go chasing. When they asked me where I was going, I said, \"I'm not sure, but prob in Oklahoma north to Iowa. This was 6 DAYS ago!! Just had this feeling about those days and that area. Wish me luck - this is my first chase. It's a long drive from here, but I figure I can make it up there by Friday noon. Anybody need a ride on the way? South Carolina - Atlanta - Nashville - St. Louis - Kansas City - Lincoln, NE. Anyone have any idea where the central point might be?[/b]

For the cost issue i would fly into KC or Chicago if i were coming from your way.. weigh the cash vs. time issue to drive to your destination.. KC less of a drive.. more expensive to fly into - Chicago, probably cheaper to fly into but a longer drive... Time = money.. do the math for the best deal.
 
Re: This is too weird

For the cost issue i would fly into KC or Chicago if i were coming from your way.. weigh the cash vs. time issue to drive to your destination.. KC less of a drive.. more expensive to fly into - Chicago, probably cheaper to fly into but a longer drive... Time = money.. do the math for the best deal.[/quote]


I like driving. I have the time, and driving is better because of the cb, police & weather scanner, and other equipment, and my antenna's for my cell phone, etc. I have unlimited laptop usage, but I need my "car" things to have all the weather access. Renting a car might save me some money if it hails out though. The drive from SC to Omaha is around 18 hours I beleive.
 
Uhmmm Duhhhhh.. I guess I didnt thouroughly read your post .. Your driving from South Carolina. ooops.. silly me :lol: lol
 
I wouldnt be a bit surprised if both Friday and Saturday turned out to be high risk days, based on how models are looking currently. I personally think it's to early to speculate on a target area, but I have my eyes on KS, MO, NE, IA areas.
 
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