High Risk Friday???

[Ken Johnson]

Since I don't have access to post in the target area, I wanted post something here about Friday. All I have to say is WOW!!! Latest NAM looks really good. Painting out around 5 thousand Cape over much or Neb and into northern Kansas. Helicity is good over that same area as well. Td's pushing 70+, making for low LCL's. Mid Level flow at 40 to 50 kts. Sfc low near 992, could get stronger... Nice Low level jet around 30 to 35 kts. owing to around 2 to 300 SRH... Nice upper level jet nosing in from the west, along with an increasingly negative tlited trough. The cap will be strong, but with that much convergence, it should break by afternoon. Overnight MCS will likely lay down boundries as well. If this pattern holds, look for SPC to issue a high risk on Friday for much of NEB, southern S. Dakota, and perhaps Norther Kansas. Get on the right storm and you should see something nice....

Thursday should be good too in western and southwestern Neb...I should yeild a tornado day, but right now, the better day could be Friday when everything should come together...

 

[nickgrillo]

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if they do issue a high risk, and I've talked with numerous other chasers on FRI, and they were all talking about the possibility of a high risk as well. Everything looks to be coming together for an outbreak, but unfortunetely, I can't leave Detroit until SAT. SAT looks pretty good too, but it appears that FRI will be the main show...

 

[Aric Cylkowski]

If the SPC doesn't issue a high risk, someone's not reading their maps right.

I just ran all the ETA figures through an excel sheet I whipped together with duct tape and bits and pieces of information from the internet and a few meteorology books I have lying around. It pumps out a number between 0 and 10 (which family members have dubbed the Cylkowski Scale), and Friday is going to be an 8.02 with an EHI of 7.1 for extreme Southeastern Nebraska. If I've ever learned anything from listening to chasers and from the stuff we get from spotter meetings, the setup on Friday is going to be epic. Jet stream, lift, moisture, shear, the whole works.

If only I weren't in college right now, I'd phone a few other people, get my car packed and drive to extreme SE Nebraska right now and get ready.

 

[Anthony Petito]

Originally posted by nickgrillo
Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if they do issue a high risk, and I've talked with numerous other chasers on FRI, and they were all talking about the possibility of a high risk as well. Everything looks to be coming together for an outbreak, but unfortunetely, I can't leave Detroit until SAT. SAT looks pretty good too, but it appears that FRI will be the main show...

SPC's Day 4/5 discussion (6/3-4) shows that they expect these strong storms on both days. So... Saturday might be just as interesting as Friday.

 

[Anthony Petito]

Originally posted by Aric Cylkowski

If only I weren't in college right now, I'd phone a few other people, get my car packed and drive to extreme SE Nebraska right now and get ready.

Sounds like you're camping out for Star Wars!

 

[Aric Cylkowski]

I just looked back on the Skew-T from the 5/22/04 event (otherwise known as the day the Hallam 2.5 mile wide F4 kicked up). Looking at the numbers and everything else, it looks like a repeat.

 

[Justin Walker]

Originally posted by Aric Cylkowski
I just looked back on the Skew-T from the 5/22/04 event (otherwise known as the day the Hallam 2.5 mile wide F4 kicked up). Looking at the numbers and everything else, it looks like a repeat.

Great...you just jinxed it...probably will be a capola bustola now!!!

 

[nickgrillo]

Originally posted by Anthony Petito+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Anthony Petito)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-nickgrillo

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if they do issue a high risk, and I've talked with numerous other chasers on FRI, and they were all talking about the possibility of a high risk as well. Everything looks to be coming together for an outbreak, but unfortunetely, I can't leave Detroit until SAT. SAT looks pretty good too, but it appears that FRI will be the main show...

SPC's Day 4/5 discussion (6/3-4) shows that they expect these strong storms on both days. So... Saturday might be just as interesting as Friday.[/b]

Got a link to that?

 

[Anthony Petito]

Originally posted by nickgrillo+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(nickgrillo)</div>

Originally posted by Anthony Petito@
<!--QuoteBegin-nickgrillo

pretty good too, but it appears that FRI will be the main show...

SPC's Day 4/5 discussion (6/3-4) shows that they expect these strong storms on both days. So... Saturday might be just as interesting as Friday.

Got a link to that?[/b]

You have a PM.

 

[Aric Cylkowski]

Hey Anthony, could you send a link my way as well?

 

[Craig Maire II]

Friday/Saturday

After the quiet Mid and late May I have had here in east central Iowa I am ready to do some SERIOUS chasing Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday...(I'll actually have some $$ this time) woopi! LOL
Pretty early in my opinion to be discussing a high risk for Friday but I am very pleased with what I have been reading and am pretty sure (90%) that supercells will be plentiful during Thursday through Sunday..

 

[Edward Ballou]

This results in a no-chase weekend for me...fiance's birthday on friday, and I have a wedding that I'm doing the sound tech. part on Saturday. Someone have a shoulder to cry on?

 

[Jay Cazel]

Author Message
Edward Ballou Posted: Tue May 31, 2005 2:54 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This results in a no-chase weekend for me...fiance's birthday on friday, and I have a wedding that I'm doing the sound tech. part on Saturday. Someone have a shoulder to cry on?

I will join with you Edward....The family vaction starts Friday morning...I will be heading south into TX.. :cry:

 

[Dan Cook]

Originally posted by Anthony Petito+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Anthony Petito)</div>

Originally posted by nickgrillo+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(nickgrillo)

<!--QuoteBegin-Anthony Petito

@
<!--QuoteBegin-nickgrillo

pretty good too, but it appears that FRI will be the main show...

SPC's Day 4/5 discussion (6/3-4) shows that they expect these strong storms on both days. So... Saturday might be just as interesting as Friday.

Got a link to that?[/b]

You have a PM.[/b][/quote]


Can I get that link too?

 

[Ben Prusia]

Originally posted by Anthony Petito+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Anthony Petito)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-nickgrillo

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if they do issue a high risk, and I've talked with numerous other chasers on FRI, and they were all talking about the possibility of a high risk as well. Everything looks to be coming together for an outbreak, but unfortunetely, I can't leave Detroit until SAT. SAT looks pretty good too, but it appears that FRI will be the main show...

SPC's Day 4/5 discussion (6/3-4) shows that they expect these strong storms on both days. So... Saturday might be just as interesting as Friday.[/b]

I am also interested too

EDIT: Kinda early to speculate on a high risk, but will be more well defined on later model forecasts and the such.