Aric Cylkowski
EF2
After fixing my calculator and plugging the numbers back in, it appears that SW Iowa looks very good, while extreme SE Nebraska looks pretty good as well. Of course everyone, take this with a grain of salt.
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High Risk Friday???
- Thread starter Ken Johnson
- Start date
Geoff Boyle
Holy crap! I'm tempted to jump on a plane and spend the weekend down there.Joey Ketcham
Probably won't get to do any chasing Friday due to work, but shoudl Saturday be interesting I'll be out...Ben Cotton
EF4
Friday is looking very interesting right now, especially over eastern Nebraska. The H7 temps are still a bit of a concern, but it's still a good ways out...we'll see how the coming model runs shape it up.
Ben
SteveCarter
EF2
This is too weird
I told everyone I was leaving South Carolina on Thursday morning to go chasing. When they asked me where I was going, I said, "I'm not sure, but prob in Oklahoma north to Iowa. This was 6 DAYS ago!! Just had this feeling about those days and that area. Wish me luck - this is my first chase. It's a long drive from here, but I figure I can make it up there by Friday noon. Anybody need a ride on the way? South Carolina - Atlanta - Nashville - St. Louis - Kansas City - Lincoln, NE. Anyone have any idea where the central point might be?[/b]fplowman
Re: This is too weird
For the cost issue i would fly into KC or Chicago if i were coming from your way.. weigh the cash vs. time issue to drive to your destination.. KC less of a drive.. more expensive to fly into - Chicago, probably cheaper to fly into but a longer drive... Time = money.. do the math for the best deal.
SteveCarter
EF2
Re: This is too weird
For the cost issue i would fly into KC or Chicago if i were coming from your way.. weigh the cash vs. time issue to drive to your destination.. KC less of a drive.. more expensive to fly into - Chicago, probably cheaper to fly into but a longer drive... Time = money.. do the math for the best deal.[/quote]
I like driving. I have the time, and driving is better because of the cb, police & weather scanner, and other equipment, and my antenna's for my cell phone, etc. I have unlimited laptop usage, but I need my "car" things to have all the weather access. Renting a car might save me some money if it hails out though. The drive from SC to Omaha is around 18 hours I beleive.fplowman
Uhmmm Duhhhhh.. I guess I didnt thouroughly read your post .. Your driving from South Carolina. ooops.. silly me :lol: lolAnthony Silver
EF4
I wouldnt be a bit surprised if both Friday and Saturday turned out to be high risk days, based on how models are looking currently. I personally think it's to early to speculate on a target area, but I have my eyes on KS, MO, NE, IA areas.Mike Smith
You can get very reasonable last minute fares into ICT on AirTran.
Andrea Griffa
EF5
I agree with you, but it starts to become interesting the zone between Topeka and Beatrice: nice low level jet, good convergence and strong deep layer shear.Anthony Silver
EF4
I'm looking very closely at SE Nebraska as a target, anywhere between Hastings and Falls City at this point, but I won't make that definite just yet. I'll have to wait for future data to come out before I write anything in stone. Northern KS is also looking like a hot spot as well.
Jason McKittrick
EF3
I wouldn't be surprised if both days turned out to be high risk either in fact I would be stunned if they didn't, but not because of the models. IMO SPC has been very liberal with their forcasts this year. I have seen high/moderate risk areas that really shouldn't have been issued and on one particular day I believe we had a couple of red boxes were absolutly nothing happend and a PDS red box with 0 tornado reports. I know some body is going to respond with a "that is the definition of a watch" but come on, they should not be issuing boxes when there are no signs of development and 18z soundings indicate caps of 200 to 400 J/KG. Here in Omaha a couple of weeks back we had a day where the 18z sounding revealed 0 cape and 47,000 cap; the 00z had 300 cape and something like 280 cap; 700 mb temps were +13 and 800 Temps where +23, and we were in a tornado watch most of that afternoon and evening that never should have been issued.
nickgrillo
EF5
The SPC will only issue watches when severe weather/tornadoes are expected to occur, and as for that tornado watch in Omaha a couple weeks ago, that was probably 21-May. The cap was beginning to erode, and a few thunderstorms actually developed... The watch was issued based upon the fact that the cap WAS eroding, even thou all the storms quickly fizzled, and the watch was cancelled several hours before it expired...
I'm sure your talking about that high risk that they issued in April for LA/MS, well, that's one thing I'll agree on. I am not sure why they issued it, but I am guessing that they had a reason for it...
I expect FRI/SAT to be high risks as well...Anthony Petito
EF4
I can verify this as I was in Omaha when this was issued. TOR war was issued as CAP was starting to erode. About 30-40 minutes into the watch, towers did start to go up to the ENE of the Omaha Metro Area. After another 30-45 minutes, those towers were quickly killed. The watch stayed in effect until sunset and was cancelled.Similar threads
