High Risk Friday???

[Mike Johnston]

Steve Carter wrote:

I told everyone I was leaving South Carolina on Thursday morning to go chasing. When they asked me where I was going, I said, \"I'm not sure, but prob in Oklahoma north to Iowa. This was 6 DAYS ago!! Just had this feeling about those days and that area. Wish me luck - this is my first chase. It's a long drive from here, but I figure I can make it up there by Friday noon. Anybody need a ride on the way? South Carolina - Atlanta - Nashville - St. Louis - Kansas City - Lincoln, NE. Anyone have any idea where the central point might be?

Steve, I have made the drive from South Carolina to Kansas City several times over the past year. One suggestion: go ahead and take I-24 up to southern Illinois, where it meets I-57 and take I-57 to Mt. Vernon to get on I-64 west. From the map, it looks tempting to cut over to Cape Girardeau to cross the Mississippi, but it probably takes 1 or 1 1/2 hours longer that way. Kansas City is a great place to set up, as you can quickly get to E Nebraska, W Iowa and Central KS via interstates. I would suggest staying somewhere along I-435 on the Kansas side eg. Olathe, Shawnee or Lenexa for the quickest access to all points. Good luck on your trip and send me a PM if there is anything I can do to help you out!

 

[Ken Johnson]

It's so much fun watching models. Things seem to have tammed down a bit. Sfc is not progged to be as strong on Thursday or Friday. A shortwave moving into Texas, could produce a large MCS over Oklahoma. Low level jet is impressive, but mid level flow is yuck over Oklahoma. Elsewhere, if the MCS doesn't kill instability, could see some stuff in eastern Kansas and if 12z GFS is correct, could be some stuff in northern Texas. ( a little southern pains action) Anyway, I've already upset the wife and told her I was heading out, so I guess there's no backing out now....

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I'm still thinking I'll make my first trip to the plains of the year Friday. Not even going to start pinning down a target yet...but I'm still eyeing SE Nebraska into northern Kansas. It's going to be a heck of an exhausting day...as I'll probably leave before sunrise to make the 8-10 hour drive out there...and will have to be back home Saturday afternoon. So, pending on my tiredness, I may drive straight home right after the chase. Chances are, I'll be too tired though, and will just find somewhere in between there and home to pass out for a few hours. Dont know if it would be worth finding a motel or not, or if I'll just find a rest area to catch a couple hours. That is unless I can find someone interested in rooming together for the nite to cut down on the price.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

I dunno about high risk. Good chase day? Yes (if cap breaks). Supercells? You bet. Tornadoes? Sure. Isolated strong, long-lived tornado? Probably. Widespread strong/violent tornadoes? Highly doubt it.

 

[Chris Hayes]

I would love to see a high risk on friday. I feel, however there'll be a moderate risk. My worries are these: Not as much cape being predicted by the ETA anymore, weaker SRH, leftovers from the MCS. The MCS could help things though, by putting down an outflow boundary or 2 which would increase local SRH

 

[Terry Kollmeyer]

I'd be quite happy to see a Mod. risk for Sat. It will be the first real time I have gotten to chase this year. Whether or not I go remains to be seen. I'm going to make a decision tomorrow night for sure.

High risk? I doubt it as well. I am hoping for a Moderate risk, though.

Fingers crossed.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

If it helps any...the 18Z eta had CAPE back to 5000 in Kansas. Maybe the 12Z run had a choke session?

 

[Gabe Garfield]

Personally, it doesn't bother me a bit whether or not it is a high risk or a moderate risk...oftentimes, I'd prefer a good high end moderate over a high risk anyway (June 8, 1995 comes to mind).

In my opinion, it seems that some of us are sweating the details a little too early...as some have said, the models are working out the kinks right now. Sometimes, they don't work out the problems before a big outbreak (a la May 3rd).

Right now, the models are progging a fantastic setup for supercells and tornadoes over the course of the next three days. It is likely that significant parts of the setup will change drastically in the model progs, but it is (nevertheless) still likely that good chasing is in order. Personally, I don't need a May 29th like setup to get excited (it is so rare at any rate)...I'm perfectly happy with something more localized. The thought of an outflow boundary residing in 3000+ MLCAPE, 30-40 kt 850 flow, and good deep-layer shear is tasty, to say the least. That may change some, but, tornadoes are likely w/in the next three days, IMO.

Gabe

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

High risk, moderate risk, slight risk, see text... who cares? The atmosphere doesn't check the SPC website.

 

[SteveCarter]

*****Steve, I have made the drive from South Carolina to Kansas City several times over the past year. One suggestion: go ahead and take I-24 up to southern Illinois, where it meets I-57 and take I-57 to Mt. Vernon to get on I-64 west. From the map, it looks tempting to cut over to Cape Girardeau to cross the Mississippi, but it probably takes 1 or 1 1/2 hours longer that way. Kansas City is a great place to set up, as you can quickly get to E Nebraska, W Iowa and Central KS via interstates. I would suggest staying somewhere along I-435 on the Kansas side eg. Olathe, Shawnee or Lenexa for the quickest access to all points. Good luck on your trip and send me a PM if there is anything I can do to help you out![/quote]*****

Thanks Mike! I'll take that route. I've made the trip from Carolina to Illinois probably 50 times, but I think I'll take I-54 to I-70. My target area is now Beatrice,NE to Salina,KS. It's about 1000-1100 miles from here, and I'm leaving in 8 hours. Time for bed! Friday looks great, and Saturday not as good, but still not that bad either. Are you going to be out there?

 

[Anthony Silver]

Looking at the latest SPC outlook...I honestly dont see a high risk going up for Friday or Saturday. They have much of the central plains under a Slght for Friday, and All I expect at the most for Sat is a moderate risk. Nonetheless, I still expect that there will be some good chaseable storms out there, especially on Saturday. Some of the best severe weather events have occurred in Slgt/mdt risk areas, so I definetly wouldnt disregard this weekend.

 

[Kevin Bowman]

Originally posted by Anthony Silver
Looking at the latest SPC outlook...I honestly dont see a high risk going up for Friday or Saturday. They have much of the central plains under a Slght for Friday, and All I expect at the most for Sat is a moderate risk. Nonetheless, I still expect that there will be some good chaseable storms out there, especially on Saturday. Some of the best severe weather events have occurred in Slgt/mdt risk areas, so I definetly wouldnt disregard this weekend.

Not that this is anything like May 3rd 99 but the SPC had a slight risk out till early afternoon when it went to moderate and then high by 6pm on that day

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Kevin Bowman+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Kevin Bowman)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-Anthony Silver

Looking at the latest SPC outlook...I honestly dont see a high risk going up for Friday or Saturday. They have much of the central plains under a Slght for Friday, and All I expect at the most for Sat is a moderate risk. Nonetheless, I still expect that there will be some good chaseable storms out there, especially on Saturday. Some of the best severe weather events have occurred in Slgt/mdt risk areas, so I definetly wouldnt disregard this weekend.

Not that this is anything like May 3rd 99 but the SPC had a slight risk out till early afternoon when it went to moderate and then high by 6pm on that day[/b]

It would depend highly on how the observational data verifies with the model data. If the models are completely out to lunch and are too weak, then it would likely be upgraded during a current day 1 outlook. 5/3/99 featured a shortwave that was quite a bit stronger than what the models suggested - Once this was discovered, the risk was upgraded from SLGT, MDT, then to HIGH...

So, in essence, it's impossible to tell if the models are too strong or too weak until the event actually unfolds...

 

[bill mudd]

..... and I like a fool canceled my Denver flight scheduled to land promptly at 11:00 AM TODAY....someone please shoot me

 

[Mike Mezeul II]

im highly doubting a high risk friday, although it does look as if a moderate might come through for n. tx and ok...keep the fingers crossed on that one. personally, i have better luck during moderate risks than high risks...high risks, the storms seem to be traveling at incredible rates and turn into hp beasts quickly...but at this point in the season ill take anything