Heatwave

  • Thread starter Mike Hollingshead
  • Start date

Mike Hollingshead

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_2_temp_96.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_2_temp_120.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_2_temp_144.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_2_temp_168.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_2_temp_192.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_2_temp_216.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_2_temp_240.gif

Poor northern plains if that is at all close to reality. Every one of those is over 100 for SD. Maybe SD can break some record highs or something. I think they are part of the 120 club. The depths of 2006.....excited over a prog'd heatwave. Bit of a Pacific system down there by 168 too.
 
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_2_temp_96.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_2_temp_120.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_2_temp_144.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_2_temp_168.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_2_temp_192.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_2_temp_216.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_2_temp_240.gif

Poor northern plains if that is at all close to reality. Every one of those is over 100 for SD. Maybe SD can break some record highs or something. I think they are part of the 120 club. The depths of 2006.....excited over a prog'd heatwave. Bit of a Pacific system down there by 168 too. [/b]



Thanks for bringing my potential misery to the attention of everyone else... And here I thought ND was supposed to be cooler than MO where I just moved from. :lol: Of course, the rental house my wife and I are living in doesn't have A/C either because it's not supposed to get that hot up here. Gonna be a fun time if this verifies...
 
If we can't break to many records for high tempatures, will certainly be able to break some low soil moisture records. As drought continues and expands from NC SD. I'd also expect a pretty good fire danger for the western 2/3 of the state. With <25% RH and GFS MOS tempatures between 95-102 degrees at most locations for Thur-Fri. Sunday looks worse, not one of six different locations I looked at was below 103F. With Monday in the upper 90's and RH's in the <25% for both days. 5940 dam, ouch!
 
Gotta love some of those 7 a.m. temps on the gfs too. Upper 80s at 7 a.m....fun times. Looks like the area around Pierre SD will get the worst of it. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday the new gfs has temps over 110 in that area by 1pm. Certainly not good chasing weather for the northern plains "summer season".
 
I'm on my way there now for a nice heat wave chase. Should be there by tomorrow night to get into the target area. Lots of dramatic video of mirages and dry cracked ground. And timelapses of lakes drying up.

(Just KIDDING)

Though, sad to say, when I hear of extreme events like this, a part of me does actually want to be there to see what it is like. This one though, for maybe 5 minutes.
 
I'm on my way there now for a nice heat wave chase. Should be there by tomorrow night to get into the target area. Lots of dramatic video of mirages and dry cracked ground. And timelapses of lakes drying up.

(Just KIDDING)

Though, sad to say, when I hear of extreme events like this, a part of me does actually want to be there to see what it is like. This one though, for maybe 5 minutes.
[/b]


That would be a fun chase maybe well be lucky enough to see clear skies, a burning sun, and see ourselves sweat"

Does anyone know what the humidity is going to be like up there? thats what just makes it feel so muggy and terrible.. but then again the heat sucks also!
 
That would be a fun chase maybe well be lucky enough to see clear skies, a burning sun, and see ourselves sweat"

Does anyone know what the humidity is going to be like up there? thats what just makes it feel so muggy and terrible.. but then again the heat sucks also!
[/b]

Thankfully, the humidity should be pretty low except for the Eastern part of the state on Thursday. Generally RH of 20% for most of the state Fri-Mon.

FSD weighs in: GFS OUTPUT CONTINUES TO BE QUITE FRIGHTENING...WITH 925 AND 850
MB TEMPS OF AROUND 30 TO 40 C RESPECTFULLY.

GFS RH & Tempature for each Day:
Thursday MAX 104F
Friday MAX 109F
Saturday MAX 111F
Sunday MAX 107F
Monday
MAX 107F


So with the exception of some areas on Thursday, the RH won't play a huge factor. But the tempatures are already quite high. Given the drought conditions and rather dry soil moisture in the central part of the state, i'd say there should be a very high fire danger.
 
You guys and gals in the northern plains that are about to get zonked with a possible record-setting heat wave, harken to some good advice from a longtime sun-baked Arizonan. Please....YOU MUST REMEMBER YOUR PET AND ANIMALS during this time. They WILL need extra special attention and care during this period. First off......for God's sake, don't put them in your cars and leave them there while you run into WalMart. Unless you're experienced at dealing with this kind of heat, you cannot believe how quickly the insides of your vehicle...even with the windows cracked a little bit, becomes a pet-killing oven. Down here in Ariz...we've recently had to put laws on the books because moronic idiots would cook their kids and pets to death every summer by leaving them in their vehicles while they would run into the store for "just a minute." Yes, I know it sounds horrific...and it is. But it's the reality of this kind of heat. And as simple as this sounds, please make sure they have x-tra water to drink. If possible, bring them into the house with you...even if they're not normally "house pets". If that is impossible and they have to be kept outside...they will need a way to be shaded somehow from the direct sunlight. This is a must. And mind you....in this type of heat, anybody who would lknowingly leave a pet outside without any sort of shade over them oughtta be jailed. I mean that too.
From what I've gathered over the years.....I think most all of the StormTrack clan are pretty sharp and responsible people. The heatwave advice I'm offering is basic "common sense" that would come naturally to the folks that'll read this. Just please remember during this period to take an extra few minutes and use your common sense...actually think about your pets and animals a little more intently than you normally would...and judge their needs. I'm telling ya'......there is a HUGE difference between living your life in normal summertime temps of upper 90's or very low 100's....and temps of 110 plus. Thanks for listening to this rant. I offer these tips because I've personally seen and heard too much sad sad stuff over the years when temps around here get wickedly high. Use your heads!!
 
Ouch new gfs has temps over 100 in SD starting Wednesday and continuing every single day through 240 hours(the following Wednesday). Looking more and more like this will be a full fledged plains heatwave. It seems like it has been a while since an extended hot period like this has been around these parts. I'm not sure when the last time it hit 100 here.

I'm with Dan on this. I love extremes and want to figure out some way to chase it. One could video tape the heat coming off the pavement. I guess my new cam runs hot as it is, it would probably suck to ruin the thing over a bunch of heat.
 
Ouch new gfs has temps over 100 in SD starting Wednesday and continuing every single day through 240 hours(the following Wednesday). Looking more and more like this will be a full fledged plains heatwave. It seems like it has been a while since an extended hot period like this has been around these parts. I'm not sure when the last time it hit 100 here.

I'm with Dan on this. I love extremes and want to figure out some way to chase it. One could video tape the heat coming off the pavement. I guess my new cam runs hot as it is, it would probably suck to ruin the thing over a bunch of heat.
[/b]

Can add to that the 12z NAM/WRF with 105F forecasted on Wednesday for areas in central SD. Also NWS forecast already has 100F temps in Pierre & Mobridge, tommorow.
 
Looks like eastern CO is, unfortunately, going to get blasted by this heat wave as well. :angry: Predicted high temps are 99 degrees for my hometown every single day for the Wednesday-Sunday period. Boulder AFD notes some spots on the plains will reach or exceed the century mark during this period as well. Frankly, given the 850-700 mb temps the GFS is predicting, I wouldn't be suprised to see some spots around here crawl towards the 105 degree mark, especially tomorrow and Thursday. This is going to be a brutal couple of days. A near carbon copy of the Central Plains heat wave we had LAST July in which Denver exceeded 100 degrees for five straight days and tied its all time record high of 105 degrees, and here on the farm I recorded a maximum temperature of 114 degrees :blink: on my home weather station at the heat wave's peak. It was insanely hot. I had a bad feeling something like this would hit us later in the summer when Denver hit one hundred two degrees on the 14th of June, eclipsing the previous earliest one hundred degree date by NINE DAYS!
I'm not looking forward to this, as the community band my family plays in has an hour long gig at Fort Morgan's annual Festival in the Park on Saturday at noon. It's not gonna be fun, to say the least. <_<
I'm hoping that the ridge will shift east after this weekend and allow the nice super soaker monsoon plume to return. That was beautiful weather; we picked up one and a half inches of rain in the first ten days of July, and temperatures were hard pressed to exceed the 80 degree mark much of the time. Much nicer than this insanity we are about to endure. :angry:
 
That would be a fun chase maybe well be lucky enough to see clear skies, a burning sun, and see ourselves sweat"[/b]


Sounds like my June 20th chase in western IA, my May chase in KS, and my ... ah ... 2006 year!
 
July 12th, 2006

Heat wave is underway. Although the GFS has moderated temps down a couple degrees, it appears that these extreme tempatures will persist in the near-term. Latest GFS has been consistent showing Saturday as the most extreme day with 105 to possibly 110 in C SD (Kennebec/Pierre/Mobridge). The GFS is also hinting on putting the heat over 100F for a large area of NE for next week. Models seem to underdo some of the temps, espically near Bismarck & Mobridge.

Records: TODAY
Bismarck MAXIMUM 105F (Daily Record, 102 previous record)

YESTERDAY:
Several locations in W SD and ND topped 100 on Tuesday. One of the highest:
SHADEHILL, SD 103F

News: The focus right now is the damage to farmers throughout NC SD. Lots of local stories on the expansion of the drought.
http://www.keloland.com/NewsDetail2817.cfm?Id=0,49426
Fires in Carson: http://www.keloland.com/NewsDetail2817.cfm?Id=0,49432

Many fires in N SD: http://www.aberdeennews.com/mld/aberdeennews/15019032.htm
Here comes the increased water restrictions: http://www.ksfy.com/Stories/Story.cfm?SID=7596

The farmers need the rain bad, tommorow might help out. I'll try and update daily for the next couple days and will post some photos.

-Scott.
 
Luckily, there are some hit and miss storms out on the central and northern plains today. It's been real humid here and not very hot but the temps will be on their way up to around 100 here with upper 60's / lower 70's dewpoints. A "deflector shield" has been set up over parts of central AR, evidenced by the latest drought monitor. My vicinity went from D0 to D2 within 2 weeks :p
And the way the outlooks are going, it doesn't look good at all :(
*prays for strong El-Nino*
 
Plenty hot in Norman... 101 last I checked. Currently my aprt.'s thermostat is set to 65F (actually I just dialed it down to 50). Spare bedroom temp where my computer is = 85F. Rest of apartment is somewhere around ~80F. Yuck!

Aaron
 
As long as the heat is gone by July 28th, I'm fine... I'm getting married outside on the 28th in Minnesota, and I'm certainly hoping that there's a nice trough siting over or east of the area. I'd really love it if the temperature was 75F at the start of the ceremony... 95F and sticky -- NO THANKS!
 
Wow, isn't the GFS supposed to be the "cold-baised" model? Even Chicago will feel the effects of this. It won't be another 1988 or 1995, but it's gonna get hot.
 
07-13-06 Some high temps

101 Chamberlain SD

105 Mc Cook NE
101 Imperial NE
100 Grand Island NE

106 Medicine Lodge KS
102 Dodge City, Hill City, Russell. Salina KS

108 Lawton OK
107 Frederick OK
106 Hobart OK
102 Oklahoma City OK

110 Wink TX
108 Vernon TX
108 Wichita Falls TX
104 Childress TX
103 Denton TX
102 Abilene, Dallas, Lubbock, Midland TX

Grand Rapids MI had a High of 88, today is the anniversary of the highest temperature
on record in our town. 108 back in 1936. Since 1960, there has only been 2 days where
the temperature made it to 100 degrees. Normal High for us 82 degrees.

Mike
P.S. I take a job as a janitor or doing some office work in a private weather company.
as long as I get my foot in the door. PM if anyone knows of a place.
 
This one still seems to have its eyes on the central and northern plains. It gets and stays so cold up here all winter, is it really necessary to get hot too?

Great day to go camping around Pierre SD tomorrow:

SATURDAY...VERY HOT. BREEZY
SUNNY. NEAR RECORD HIGHS AROUND
111. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
 
This one still seems to have its eyes on the central and northern plains. It gets and stays so cold up here all winter, is it really necessary to get hot too?
[/b]


Yeah that is amazing how it can vary so much between seasons. The roads up there must really take a beating with large seasonal temp swings like that...


We have the John Deere Classic golf tourneyment going on at the TPC course this weekend. The conditions are going to be terrible for walking 18 holes. High temps are forecasted to be pushing 100°, with dewpoints near (or possibly a bit over 70° with our ongoing annual max evapotranspiration) producing heat indicies above 105°. Michelle Wie already withdrew from the tourneyment today from heat exhaustion.


Do any of you guys think parts of South Dakota has a shot at topping 115° this weekend?
 
July 14th:

CHAMBERLAIN SD : 102F
MOBRIDGE: 104F
PIERRE: 103F
KENNEBEC: 103F
PHILIP: 105F
SPEARFISH: 105F
RAPID CITY: 104 (RECORD)

The incidence of fires has increased significantly in the last 48 hours. 3.9u imagery shows at least five different fires in South Dakota. The most significant in extreme SW SD. There are some very significant fires in NE WY & SE MT. Smoke from these fires has kept temps down a bit in some locations.

USGS Interactive Drought Monitor: http://gisdata.usgs.net/website/Drought_Mo...ring/viewer.php

NEWS:
Article on local fires
Fire Blog- (Wyoming & Black Hills Fires)


Fire information:
Montana-
Bundry Railroad Fire- 25,000 acres (0% contained)
Pine Ridge Complex (5 fires)- 20,000 acres (10% contained)

Wyoming:
Thorne Divide Complex (Crook County): 4,000 acres at 10 percent contained (This fire is producing lots of smoke and appears to have expanded.

South Dakota:
Wolf Canyon (South Dakota State): 100 acres at 30 percent contained
(Several new fires have shown up today, all west of the MO river)

Tommorow should be the warmest day, with 110 degrees possible for some locations. 100+ temps should continue through Tuesday.
 
Its noon here in Norman and I just got in from a run to Wal-Mart and I can honestly tell you, its HOTTER THAN BLAZES out there. I called just while ago and had my modeling appointment pushed back to 9:30/10am from noon b/c of the dang heat.

-please take care of pets too, theyll need it
 
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