Good-looking storm is heading towards the eastern Med

71040121.jpg


Nice looking eye! :shock:
 
That's a beautiful Cyprus low. I anxiously await the thunderstorms it shall bring me tomorrow evening. I'm still looking for a CG bolt over here. Maybe tomorrow will be the night :D

Once again, Accuweather downplays the thunder probs. A big' ol goose-egg for tomorrow and Friday.
 
Out of curiosity I did up an 18Z map for that area (this is all hand-sketched in Paint Shop). It appears that there's
actually a pre-existing frontal system further south. My first guess is that earlier in its lifecycle that front had
moved onto the north African coast, maturing and spawning an occlusion that picked up that boundary
through Israel into the eastern Med (which is probably a little further south than what I drew). Baroclinic
development probably then took off.

It's easy to see why Rome lost so many ships in the Mediterranean during the winter months!

medsystem.gif


I'm not sure if that Red Sea moisture is capped or shallow, but I'd certainly be keeping an eye on it for storms as those height falls and convergence zones arrive.
 
Nice map Tim, how do you create it?

Here's the GFS analysis map for the storm (from GrADS):

71057997.png


Take a look at this:

Could this be considered a "warm core"? It is apparent only up until 650mb. At 500mb the colder air is in the middle.
71060748.png

71060805.png

71060822.png
 
Originally posted by Tim Vasquez
No, it's almost certainly cold core. You have to look near the top of the troposphere, and there you'll find the cold core.

About the surface map, that was done with Digital Atmosphere (www.digitalatmosphere.com).

Tim

Yes Tim, that is one of the most important synoptic pattern(cold core low) producing strong tornadic supercell in Sicily that is one of the southern regions of Italy(when it's further west). Every year in autumn months it always produces waterspouts and often strong tornadoes(F2-F3). Do tou remember that big multivortex wedge I posted last year here on Stormtrack? That was produced thanks to a cold core low like this.

http://storms.meteonetwork.it/uploads/img4...183b8f242db.png

http://storms.meteonetwork.it/uploads/img4...183babcce36.png

I make you see a cool image of the system. You can see an incredible desert sand thrown inside the see.

Egypt.A2005349.1125.1km.jpg
 
Originally posted by Andrea Griffa


I make you see a cool image of the system. You can see an incredible desert sand thrown inside the see.


That is something I DON'T want to see on March 29! My chase partner Bill Winkler and I will be chasing a lunar shadow in Libya on that day. We are taking a cruise on the Sinfonia from Genoa, Italy with port calls at Naples, Sicily, Egypt, Tobruk, Alexandria, Malta, etc. before returning to Genoa. From Tobruk we will be taking a two hour bus trip into the Libyan desert for the eclipse.
 
Lookin good. That thing is sitting south of Crete now. The sand being sucked into the storm is quite amazing. I'm sitting here in Baghdad as the sun is about to break out of the clouds, should be near 70 later on. The rain is expected by evening. Hope I get a good storm.
 
This storm draws ever so closer now. It's the warmest it's been all day, mut be about 60 now at 10pm. The rain is expected at about 2am. The humidity has skyrocketed since 6 hours ago.

10:52pm ADT Well, it begins. A light shower moved through, and at the end, a cannonball CG blast occured, I missed it though
 
Very strong thunderstorms are rumbling across Israel now. In Jerusalem a severe thunderstorm passed just a few minutes ago, with large hail that accumulated to 5 cm, very heavy rain that's causing flash floods in the Judean desert, and lightning every 3 to 5 seconds. That was very intense!
 
It's been raining consistently for several hours now, not too much thunder though. The wind is gusting to about 35 mph here in Baghdad. I'm glad it's raining or we would have a pretty good sandstorm on our hands.
 
Originally posted by Steve_Stuck
Perhaps this storm had something to do with the Egyptian ferry sinking?

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,183665,00.html

I was wondering the exact same thing - and came in to post the same question this morning. I was curious if this was associated with the same system that was moving through the eastern Med. this week ... sounds like very high seas at the time (and goodness knows ferries and rough weather do not seem to get along - particularly older boats) ...
 
Yes, it looks like this horrible event happened at least in part because of the storm that is moving through the Middle East.

Satellite images show massive thunderstorms over north-western Saudi Arabia during the approximate time the ship sank. I received a report that 40 mm fell there in 40 minutes. But the strong thunderstorms were restricted to land only and the Red Sea was not under heavy rain. However there were very strong winds associated with the storm and the sea was probably very rough.

The flooding images I posted above are from the coast of Israel on the Red Sea.
 
Here an idea for what may have caused the disaster. A seiche. I see them every now and then behind squall lines and derachos that cross Lake Michigan when I'm in Chicago. Although they are generally rare, strong derachos can build up fluid on the downstream side of a body of water and after a strong deracho propagates east it can cause water to oscolate westward and increase in amplitude due changes in sea/ lake depth. This is just an idea. Anway if someone can post some radar/ satellite data (from the time of the event), this might be helpful. Thank you.

Here are some related links:
http://www.coastal.udel.edu/faculty/rad/seiche.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seiche
 
I read that the ship disappeared from radar at midnight, so this should be the relevant satellite image (local time is UTC+2).

This is the best you can find, unfortunately, there is no radar or higher resolution satellite for that region that I know of.

71171805.jpg
 
The winds were very strong last night. Winds were gusting probably up to 45 mph. The rain ended earlier though. I could see winds being much stronger over the Red Sea closer to the center of the low. That's probably what sank the ship.

We need weather radar in more parts of the world. We need to start a campagin to bring NEXRAD technology to the rest of the world.
 
The winds were very strong last night. Winds were gusting probably up to 45 mph. The rain ended earlier though. I could see winds being much stronger over the Red Sea closer to the center of the low. That's probably what sank the ship.
I heard from news that the ship sank because of the fire..

We need weather radar in more parts of the world. We need to start a campagin to bring NEXRAD technology to the rest of the world.
Cannot agree more on that one, man :!:
 
The winds were very strong last night. Winds were gusting probably up to 45 mph. The rain ended earlier though. I could see winds being much stronger over the Red Sea closer to the center of the low. That's probably what sank the ship.
I heard from news that the ship sank because of the fire..

We need weather radar in more parts of the world. We need to start a campagin to bring NEXRAD technology to the rest of the world.
Cannot agree more on that one, man :!:

We're starting up just this year...We've got some radars but anything like Nexrad. But it's too later, men.
 
Andrea:

Good Day. I was hoping you could tell me the location/web address to obtain the satellite pictures you showed of the sandstorm. The quality was great and I'd love to see it. Thanks in advance. Cheers.
 
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