Derek Heide
There's been a couple of prediction threads already regarding the 2011 severe weather season. This is another one.
There is a ton of expertise on this board. Many have been through numerous severe weather seasons before. You've seen it all. For some of us, we're still new and learning.
Here are the questions I'd like you to answer. Be as elaborate as you want.
1) Which month is going to be the most active?
I feel it's going to be a close race between April and May. Typically, May is the most active month of the year. I will go with April here. With a moderate La Nina and a strong subtropical jet, I think there's going to be some incredibly deep low pressure systems developing in the southern Rockies. I expect below normal temperatures in the central and northern US through April, with a typical storm track cutting across the central US. There should be a nice battle zone of extremes, setting up for some intense convective events in April, especially.
2) Which portion, or portions, of the US are going to be the most active?
I like the Deep South (LA, AR, MS, TN, AL), especially in late March and April. I think the jetstream is going to be suppressed to the south with cold bursts of weather dominating much of the north and portions of the central US. It may be a frustrating start for those on the Plains.
I also like the central and northern Plains into the Midwest come late May and June as high pressure begins building over Texas and Oklahoma. This high should continue to expand into the summer months, possibly bringing the dreaded "thermonuclear" cap to portions of the Plains.
3) Concluding thoughts.
In the end, I feel that 2011 will bring more severe weather and tornado reports than normal. I could see a couple of historic outbreaks occurring in the Deep South in late March and April.
This is probably going against the grain but I could see it being a below average year for Oklahoma and Kansas thanks, in part, to the dry conditions this winter.
I think the northern Plains (Dakotas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa) into the Upper Midwest (Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan) are going to be in a good spot come June and July atop a strong central and southern US heat ridge. There should be some real nice "ring of fire" set ups.
For my area, southern Manitoba, I think it's going to be an average summer for severe weather. It's going to be tough to push the colder anomalies away, making for a frustrating May and early June with below normal temperatures persisting. I think late July and August is going to be most active period for me with the jetstream finally pushing into southern Canada.
Another year is almost upon us. I look forward to following all the action and all the great posts!
There is a ton of expertise on this board. Many have been through numerous severe weather seasons before. You've seen it all. For some of us, we're still new and learning.
Here are the questions I'd like you to answer. Be as elaborate as you want.
1) Which month is going to be the most active?
I feel it's going to be a close race between April and May. Typically, May is the most active month of the year. I will go with April here. With a moderate La Nina and a strong subtropical jet, I think there's going to be some incredibly deep low pressure systems developing in the southern Rockies. I expect below normal temperatures in the central and northern US through April, with a typical storm track cutting across the central US. There should be a nice battle zone of extremes, setting up for some intense convective events in April, especially.
2) Which portion, or portions, of the US are going to be the most active?
I like the Deep South (LA, AR, MS, TN, AL), especially in late March and April. I think the jetstream is going to be suppressed to the south with cold bursts of weather dominating much of the north and portions of the central US. It may be a frustrating start for those on the Plains.
I also like the central and northern Plains into the Midwest come late May and June as high pressure begins building over Texas and Oklahoma. This high should continue to expand into the summer months, possibly bringing the dreaded "thermonuclear" cap to portions of the Plains.
3) Concluding thoughts.
In the end, I feel that 2011 will bring more severe weather and tornado reports than normal. I could see a couple of historic outbreaks occurring in the Deep South in late March and April.
This is probably going against the grain but I could see it being a below average year for Oklahoma and Kansas thanks, in part, to the dry conditions this winter.
I think the northern Plains (Dakotas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa) into the Upper Midwest (Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan) are going to be in a good spot come June and July atop a strong central and southern US heat ridge. There should be some real nice "ring of fire" set ups.
For my area, southern Manitoba, I think it's going to be an average summer for severe weather. It's going to be tough to push the colder anomalies away, making for a frustrating May and early June with below normal temperatures persisting. I think late July and August is going to be most active period for me with the jetstream finally pushing into southern Canada.
Another year is almost upon us. I look forward to following all the action and all the great posts!
